US-Iran ties and the possibility of rapprochement
After the withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear deal or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), fresh indirect negotiations are taking place between the US and Iran with the mediation of the European Union. President Trump followed a maximum pressure policy with Iran after the withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018. The maximum pressure is “Instituting the highest level of economic sanctions” in the words of President Trump. Both parties submitted their final decisions to the European Union on 16th August and European Union emphasised that there will be no further revisions to the text and said that both the stakeholders will have to make their decision in “very, very few weeks.” Trump withdrew from the deal saying that the agreement did not address Iran’s ballistic missile program and the proxy warfare in the region waged by Iran.
The Iran nuclear agreement was reached between Iran and several other world powers including the United States in 2015. Under this agreement, Iran agreed to open its facilities and undeclared sites for inspections from international observers. The purpose of its nuclear facilities is to only work on medical and industrial research and not to produce highly enriched uranium or plutonium which could be used in nuclear weapons. The agreement also limits the number of centrifuges Iran can use and the level of enrichment it can do. The 5% enriched uranium is used in nuclear power plants, 20% is used in research reactors and medical purposes, and 90% enriched uranium is used in nuclear weapons. It also agreed to eventually implement the monitoring and verification protocols of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The deal was signed during Obama’s presidency when the current president Joe Biden was the vice president. The US gave a professional commitment to the deal at that time.
The agreement went into effect in 2016 January. The agreement included 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany. Few of the middle eastern powers are not satisfied with the agreement and expressed their concerns over the west not consulting with them before the agreement, Israel called the agreement too lenient. Iran met its preliminary pledges in 2016 according to the IAEA certification. This led to the suspension of the sanctions by the United Nations, European nations and the United States unfroze the Iranian assets of about $100 billion.
The US and Iran didn’t have diplomatic ties since 1980 when Iran took the Embassy staff hostage after raiding the building. From then Switzerland handles the diplomatic needs of US citizens in Iran and Pakistan handles the diplomatic needs of Iranians in the United States.
Iran's leadership was secretly pursuing nuclear technology after the overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979. It was part of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1970. Iran is unlikely to give up its pursuit of nuclear technology and missiles to deliver them wherever they want, especially to Israel. Iran sees nuclear weapons as a guarantee of its survival. Iran does not allow observers to examine the sites which are suspected to be working on developing nuclear weapons, witnessing the situation of Ukraine which gave up its nuclear missiles for protection assured by the US, UK and Russia in 1994, Iran can be more motivated to advance its dreams of a nuclear arsenal.
After the targeted killings of Iran’s top nuclear scientists, Iran announced that it would no longer limit its Uranium enrichment. Iran experienced attacks on its nuclear facilities which were blamed on Israel. It boosted the uranium enrichment at the Fordow facility after the attacks. Even though Iran started to exceed agreed-upon limits and stockpile low-enriched uranium, it still didn’t achieve the higher concentrations of purity that are required for weapons. It is believed that Iran currently can produce 60% pure Uranium concentration.
The second round of sanctions by the US after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan weakened the economy of the country severely, the inflation in the country rose o 36.2% and GDP decreased by 2.7%. the impasse was hardened because the negotiators who are dealing with the US from Iran are reformists and hardliners. Currently, Iran is asking for safeguards and guarantees against the sanctions to move further with the agreement. Iran wants the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qud’s Force (IRGC-QF) and other IRGC-affiliated groups’ names removed from the US Department of Treasury’s list as terrorist organizations.
During the election campaign for Biden's presidency, he promised that he would “offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy”. Biden also said he will address the ballistic missiles of Iran’s regional proxies which were highlighted by Trump during his withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018. He also mentioned that the United States won't lift the sanctions to bring Iran to the negotiating table. Diplomacy was initially bogged down by disagreements over which country should go first. Iran has refused to meet directly with the United States unless it first lifts sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, which backed out of the deal in May 2018. After weeks of behind-the-scenes proposals, the European Union announced on April 2 that it would convene indirect talks including the six major world powers and Iran. Negotiations stalled because Iran wanted the US to delist its elite Revolutionary Guards from the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). US Special Envoy to Iran Rob Malley will fly to Vienna for talks. Iran's top negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani said the US should show "maturity". Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Foreign Minister of Iran last year said that European Union can “choreograph” the moves of the United States. Biden administration removed travel restrictions on Iranian diplomats in New York, rescinded the Trump administration” snapback” sanctions and accepted the invitation to attend the P5+1 meetings by the E.U. as its initial moves in the negotiation. Iran is likely to remove all the monitoring equipment that was installed under the 2015 agreement, which includes 27 cameras which are used to monitor the movements in Iran. This can affect the ongoing negotiations negatively
With all these requirements on both sides and the US providing weapons and technology for its enemies in the region (Israel and Saudi Arabia), there are many complexities currently existing between both the countries and the terms and conditions listed out by both the parties were noted as unacceptable by the other party. The deal might likely face another deadlock given the current circumstances. But reviving the nuclear deal with Iran is one of the priorities for Biden after the failure with the Taliban and Russia-Ukraine. As of now Iran has responded to the draft deal sent by E.U. and returned its responses, the EU called those responses “reasonable”, and Iran dropped two of its demands which are removing IRGC from the State Department list and guaranteeing against the withdrawal of the US from the agreement in the future. But it is asking U.N. nuclear watchdog to close its probe into three locations where unexplained traces of uranium were detected, Iran also received the responses from the US and carefully reviewed them, according to the spokesman of the Foreign Ministry. According to the spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, Iran made some concessions which made the parties come closer to the deal, he also said we are not there at the deal yet as there are some gaps remaining.
Pic Courtsey-
(The views expressed are those fo the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
