A Reformer for an Institution in Decline: What does the Next Secretary-General Inherits?

Introduction:

The next Secretary-General will hold office on 1^st January 2027, ending the second and five-year term of António Guterres on 31^st December 2026. [1] Many observers suggest that the competition to hold the office will not be an easy task during the tough times of organization within the history of 80 years. Despite this, the competition is underway as candidates are selected, discussions between member states take place, and informal deliberations in the Security Council. [2] The article describes the selection process for the next leader, and the challenges the person who will be selected must face are a funding shortage, stalled decisions and negotiations in the Security Council, and trust issues with great powers about their commitments towards the UN. It explains that financial, political, and structural problems within the institution will shape the term of the next Secretary-General. Finally, the article concludes that the small measures can make a big difference in fixing the institution within the given framework of rules.

A Contested and Closely Watched Selection:

The selection process for the Secretary-General is mentioned in the UN Charter. It has been developed through the practice of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA): A) The regional rotation system includes five regional groups. The number of candidates usually comes from the group of Latin American and Caribbean states, which holds the next turn in the rotation, together with at least one candidate from Africa. B) The Security Council must recommend one candidate to the UNGA. This requires at least nine favorable votes and no veto from its five permanent members. C) Finally, a candidate is appointed by a simple majority of the 193 member states in the UNGA. [3] There is also a gender aspect to the field: since 1945, the post of Secretary-General has remained dominated by men, while many members of the UN have supported the idea of women holding the post. [4] To inform candidates about the expectations of the next Secretary-General to take a stance on fundamental issues that limit their independence once they hold office, they were asked about their views on the reform of the Security Council. [5] Although the results are doubtful and depend on constant deliberation, the Latin American candidate secured the first position in the informal survey. [6]

An Organization on the Edge of Insolvency:

As soon as the new Secretary-General assumes office, the initial problem presented before them is economic. The original UN budget of 2026 was modified by Guterres in response to financial problems faced by the UN: lowering expenditure by about fifteen percent and decreasing staff by nineteen percent- a reduction of posts from 13,800 to 11,600. [7] At the end of 2025, the organization was left with a due balance of approximately 1.6 billion dollars in contribution from member states, even the great powers did not fulfill their commitments. [8] On the one hand, the UN gains by receiving the funds and loses on the other as obligated to repay the remaining money from previous years, increasing the debt of unpaid funds made the UN lose a total of 20% of its yearly budget and will further lead to bankruptcy, as stated by Guterres. [9] Human rights groups investigate the cases of abuse under the UN investigating bodies. As spending is cut, staff is reduce, a lack of employees to a great extent cannot investigate such cases, resulting in an increase in suffering, which emerges as a new challenge before the institution. [10] It is understood that the financial commitments of member states will be followed sincerely by contributing money regularly and on time, which is a presumption, and this presumption regarding the organizations financial policy is invalid because there are no good structural changes that can solve the problems unless the priority is given to tackle the problem of insolvency. [11]

A Security Council That Cannot Agree:

Another challenge faced by the next leader will be the fault lines in the UN’s Security Council (UNSC), which put limitations on the Council’s ability to manage global affairs. The veto, also known as “negative vote”, is frequently used by the permanent members, recording the most veto lock decisions in 2025 compared to 2024, for example in the case of Gaza and Ukraine war, where decisions were stalled due to the veto of the US and Russia. [12] French-Mexican efforts to restrain the veto power of the five permanent members in cases of mass violence, increase representation in permanent and non-permanent seats, and Article 109 of the UN Charter supports a general conference (two-thirds majority in the UNGA plus nine votes from any members of the Security Council) to review and update the Charter by putting certain limitations on veto. These are initiatives that help curb stalled decisions and bring reforms to the UNSC. [13] Yet, these reforms require the approval of the permanent members, which in return provides them with more leverage in the UNSC. Taking this into account, observer states have criticized the Security Council as an outdated system structured on the power dynamics of 1945 that does not consider the multipolar world and shifts in economics and population globally, wherein permanent members hold smaller portions. [14]

What does the Next Secretary-General Inherits?

The UN is an official intergovernmental organization that was established to maintain global peace, cooperation, and security. The Secretary-General, who is a leader of the UN, is unable to force the member states to obey the rules: not pressuring countries to pay their financial contribution, modifying the rules to improve the Security Council, or changing the political goals of powerful countries against their will. One of the opinions recommends that appointment of a new leader is not enough to reform the institution but also requires the US to be responsible for the institutions it helped design. It is also worth considering whether China adheres to commitments to a rule-based system rather than being selective in respect to its interests. Further, consider whether actions of Global South countries are backed by regular financial contributions and diplomatic engagement. [15] Thus, the new Secretary-General referred to as a reformer is more related to ambition and a problem solver who can manage finances, establish peace and security when the council faces deadlocks, and keep reform proposals active until the political need for change arises. [16]

Conclusion:

The new Secretary-General of the UN will hold office in January 2027 and is taking the leadership of an institution that is struggling with financial, political, and structural issues: a lower budget amid the risk of bankruptcy, the stalled decision of the Security Council, and an environment where a lack of commitment to multilateralism is observed. [17] Based on these situations, the criteria for selecting the Secretary-General may have more to do with whether they can manage the crisis instead of trying to reform the institution overall. [18]