The global race for development of hypersonic missiles
Hypersonic missiles are the new trending term on missile technology. Deemed to be five times faster than the speed of sound. They offer advantages in terms of speed to target, manoeuvrability and survivability to reach hard and well-defended targets. What makes these weapons valuable is that there is no operational missile defence system that is capable of intercepting a hypersonic missile. Which makes the race towards developing these missiles an important one. Up till now China and Russia have confirmed successfully testing hypersonic missiles whereas the US has fallen behind the race of developing one.
According to news, the US Air force has given a $928 million contract to Lockheed Martin to develop an advanced hypersonic missile system in 2018.[1] Lockheed Martin will develop the Hypersonic Conventional Strike Weapon (HCSW), a new air-launched weapon system. The US tested an air-breathing hypersonic weapon meaning it can sustain flight on its own through the atmosphere like a cruise missile making it the first of that class of weapon system since 2013.[2] The United Kingdom, France and India are also at different stages of developing their hypersonic technology.
Who has them?
The US, China and Russia are the three countries that currently possess this technology.
US: The US has actively has pursued the development of hypersonic weapons as part of its conventional prompt global program since the early 2000s.[3] Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies are working closely with US armed Forces to develop hypersonic weapons. Both companies have been working for thirty years to develop these technologies. On 23 October, 2021 US held three tests to advance hypersonic weapon program. Joe Biden has expressed concern over China and Russia rapid development of missile programs. Hence, the Pentagon has prioritized the rapid deployment of hypersonic weapons in part to compete with similar Chinese and Russian capabilities.[4]
China: China has this year tested two hypersonic missile weapons within in three months. In July 2021 it tested a hypersonic glide missile with capability to carry nuclear warheads. It differs from hypersonic cruise missiles, which are powered by high-speed engines that use oxygen in the atmosphere for propulsion during flight — so-called air-breathing engines.[5] In August China did another test of hypersonic missile test that as reported by Financial Times but denied by the Chinese government flew over the South China Sea. The July test, in particular, caught US off-guard as the Chinese military launched a rocket that used a “fractional orbital bombardment” system to propel a nuclear capable “hypersonic glide vehicle” around the earth for the first time. China demonstrated that is ahead of the US and Russia in the development of next generation weapons that are capable to pass through any available missile defence system without being intercepted.
Russia: Russia has been developing hypersonic technology since 2002. IN 2018 it unveiled the Russian hypersonic glide vehicle The Avangard. On 3rd November 2021, it announced the successful testing of Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles. The missile successfully hit both ground and sea targets when fired from underwater or surface ships.[6]
North Korea, also has reportedly tested a hypersonic missile system but the success of the test is still in doubt.
The arms race and changing balance of power
The race towards arms development has gained momentum with the strides Russia and China are making. The US is now pumping money into the development of these war systems. China is ahead of everyone in the race depicted by the July 27 missile launch. The new age war systems are faster, undetectable and manoeuvre to reach the target. China has shown the capability to put nuclear warheads into these cruise missiles which the US lacks and Russia has already announced the deployment of hypersonic missiles in the navy by 2022.
Not only that, but China is also leading the race in the development. One professor had proposed the use of Artificial intelligence to increase the speed and accuracy of these weapons. First reported by South China Morning Post, the use of algorithms in hypersonic missile systems can improve their accuracy by 10 times.[7] AI can be used to write algorithms ‘on the fly’ as compared to now when programmes are controlled by men at the field station. What makes this arm race dangerous is that there is no agreement or treaties to regulate the proliferation of hypersonic missile. The Trump administration did approach Russia and China for a trilateral treaty to regulate a treaty on arm control but Beijing has consistently refused to come to the table. MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) that recently held a plenary meeting in Sochi on October 15, 2021, have also expressed concern over the development of missile technology. The Plenary meeting was chaired by Russian Ambassador Grigory Mashkov. In his opening statement he observed that the rapid development of missile technology had been making an increasingly significant impact on the international and regional security landscape.[8] He called for a multilateral treaty to reduce the threat of these developments in international politics. The extent of proliferation of these weapons is still low with few having successfully achieved the capabilities but the threat remains high. China is racing towards development of fifth generation warfare to be ahead of the US as part of its vision of national rejuvenation. XI Jinping envisages that China should not lag behind the innovative technologies and is making sure that sufficient invest and research is done in the area. With the development in technology, weapons are becoming more lethal with increased capabilities of range, speed and target. China has dropped its earlier strategy of minimum strategic restrain and is now on the offensive with increasing its nuclear stockpiles to acquiring military bases around the globe.
In Europe, it changes the balance of power between NATO and Russia. NATO has deployed anti-ballistic missile defence systems in and around Mediterranean countries. Now with the acquisition of hypersonic missiles Russia has left this defence system obsolete and changed the power balance of the region. President Vladimir Putin has also said this "While developing their anti-ballistic missile system, the Americans wanted to upset this strategic stability and balance thinking that if they created a missile defense umbrella, then the other side wouldn’t be able to respond adequately if they use nuclear weapons".[9]
US, Russia and China are fighting this race with all their resources, billions of dollars are given to the development of military technologies, when, the world has just recovered from a pandemic.
Notes
[1] Lockheed Martin (2018), “Lockheed Martin Wins Potential $928 Million Contract to Develop New Hypersonic Missile for the Air Force”, Press Release, 6 June 2018, The USA. URL: https://news.lockheedmartin.com/2018-06-06-Lockheed-Martin-Wins-Potential-928-Million-Contract-to-Develop-New-Hypersonic-Misile-for-the-Air-Force
[2]Reuters (2021), “Explained: How hypersonic missiles work and who leads the race”, The Times of India, 19 October 2021, New Delhi. URL: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/science/explained-how-hypersonic-missiles-work-and-who-leads-the-race/articleshow/87132762.cms
[3] Stone, Mike (2021), “U.S. holds three tests to advance hypersonic weapon programs, Pentagon says”, Reuters, 23 October 2021. URL: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-holds-three-tests-advance-hypersonic-weapon-programs-pentagon-says-2021-10-21/
[4] Bugos, Shannon (2021), “U.S. Hypersonic Capabilities Advance”, November, 2021, Arms Control Regime. URL: https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-11/news/us-hypersonic-capabilities-advance
[5] Sevastopolo, Demetri et.al. (2021), “What China’s hypersonic test launch reveals about the global arms race”, Financial Times, 22 October, 2021. URL: https://www.ft.com/content/f647d654-e870-4829-8dc2-90c98985c034
[6] Reuters, “Putin says Russian navy to get hypersonic Zircon missiles in 2022”, AL Jazeera, 3 November 2021, Doha. URL: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/3/putin-says-russian-navy-to-get-hypersonic-zircon-missiles-in-2022
[7] Chen, Stephen (2021), “China military researchers pinpoint AI for hypersonic weapons accuracy”, South China Morning Post, 14 October 2021, Beijing. URL: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3152179/china-military-researchers-pinpoint-ai-hypersonic-weapons
[8] Murphy, Brendan (2021), “Public Statement from the Plenary Meeting of the Missile Technology Control Regime Sochi”, Missile Technology Control Regime, 8 October 2021, Sochi. URL: https://mtcr.info/public-statement-from-the-plenary-meeting-of-the-missile-technology-control-regime-sochi-8-october-2021/
[9] Russian News Agency (2020), “Russia’s new hypersonic weapons help maintain global strategic balance — Putin”, The Tass, 2 March ‘2020. URL: https://tass.com/politics/1125437
Pic Courtesy-Fedrico Beccari at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
