Taiwan: Will engagement with Washington curtail Beijing’s aspirations?

The Trump administration, during the slow aggravation of tensions with China, has sought to steadily bolster Taiwan’s status regionally and internationally. Not only have these attempts included high level American diplomatic visits and the sale of advanced torpedoes and aircraft to Taiwan, but there is also talk of a potential trade agreement between the two. A harbinger of these dynamics has been the TAIPEI Act (Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative Act) of 2019, which was passed unanimously in the US House of Representatives in March this year. This act was then signed into law in April, and calls on the government of the United States to consider “increasing its economic, security and diplomatic engagement with nations that have demonstrably strengthened, enhanced or upgraded relations with Taiwan.” While this could be interpreted in a seemingly neutral manner, the act also calls on the government to consider “altering” relations with countries that “take serious or significant actions to undermine the security or prosperity of Taiwan.” It would not be a stretch to acknowledge who these “countries” or country in fact is.

At a time when the pandemic had only just begun to set in and the rift in US-China relations had begun to deepen, this law was thus met with significant condemnation and criticism from the government in Beijing. The US signing such an act into law and simultaneously increasing its security engagements with Taiwan has possibly heightened China’s own insecurity. For Beijing, Taiwan is an integral part of China; refusing to see it as anything other than “Taiwan, Province of China,” or “Chinese Taipei.” Any increased external diplomatic support, especially from a country like the United States, undermines China’s bid to reclaim Taiwan as an integral part of its “One China” principle. Additionally, this also undermines any of China’s attempts at coercing Taiwan’s diplomatic partners and weakening its legitimacy. In this regard, Washington’s current plans for Taiwan are extremely significant as they will not only provide the island with increased military prowess but also elevate US-Taiwan relations to just short of recognizing sovereignty.

As of reports from mid-September, the Trump administration is pushing seven large weapon consignments to Taiwan, which are currently valued at around $7 billion. Following on the $8 billion arms deal between Washington and Taipei signed last year, this will be the second largest package of weapons provided to Taiwan. As part of the package, the US will provide Taiwan with a number of AGM-84H/K SLAM-ER, Air-to-Ground missiles, mines and possibly even drones. The AGM has a medium to long range of 155 nautical miles or 270 kilometers, making it a highly potent weapon in the possession of Taiwan. Similarly, the Trump administration as part of the $8 billion 2019 deal, approved the sale of 66 F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan. These weapon sales however, are only the latest in a number of other weapon systems that have been supplied to the island over the past few decades. Nonetheless, the number and value of the weapons systems packages being supplied to Taiwan have seemingly increased since 2016 (See table 1); the year the Trump administration came into office.

Table 1. Taiwan weapon purchases from the United States (2009-2020)

As can be seen in the table above, the number of weapons provided to Taiwan, have increased exponentially; especially since the Trump administration came to office in 2016. This has resulted in some of the biggest arms purchases made by Taiwan till date. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s arms transfers database, more than three-quarters of Taiwan’s imported weapons come from the United States. However, the power and capabilities that these weapons actually grant the island with respect to China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is questionable. According to military analysts and naval specialists like Ronald O’Rourke, “Given the pace of PLAN (Navy) modernization over the past few years, the military imbalance between the mainland and Taiwan will continue to increase in China’s favor.” China’s military modernization and steady build up has in fact become a challenging aspect for the region, more specifically, it has fueled Taiwan’s insecurity and is the motivating factor behind the upgradation of US-Taiwan ties.

China has not only rapidly increased its assertiveness in this regard, but also continued its military expansionism and diplomatic threats to Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army Navy has deployed missiles along the Taiwan Strait, periodically conducted military drills and exercises near the island and also developed capabilities aimed directly at any kind of large-scale amphibious invasion. The PLAN has not only upgraded its Bluewater capabilities over the past decade, but also vessels and systems which would cater to its regional aspirations. It has thus put into production its Type 071 and Type 075 ships, which combine the functions of transport docks, aircraft carriers and assault ships and can deploy hovercrafts, landing crafts, vertical launching fighters and amphibious armored vehicles. The fact that China considers Taiwan to be a mere wayward province, has meant that it has never renounced the use of force if need be in bringing the island back under its control; and the development of these capabilities has been seen as a direct threat to the island nation.

Taiwan has thus chosen to not only align further with the United States but also increase its defense capabilities in ensuring its own security in the coming years. The Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan, headed by President Tsai Ing-wen has revealed detailed spending plans through 2025, aimed at investment in both training and equipment. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence, the current priorities of the island include missiles, drones, electronic warfare systems, fighter aircraft and ballistic missile defenses among other things. While a few of the arms and weapon systems will be domestically produced (including a plan to locally build eight submarines), a majority of the weapon systems needed will be sourced from the United States. In this regard, while Taiwan’s current defense budget stands at around $11.3 billion, it is projected to increase by almost 20 percent or by $2.1 billion by 2025.

It must be noted, that this exponential increase in defense spending, the current stance adopted by the Taiwanese government, and the increasing ties with the US are a product of the government of President Tsai Ing-wen. Many of the policies now being adopted mark a sharp divergence from the commitments of the previous China-friendly government of President Ma Ying-jeou, under whom defense spending slid from 3 percent to 2 percent of Taiwan’s GDP between 2009 and 2016. In this regard, while the military imbalance may be shifting in China’s favor, the new government is more prepared to stand up against China’s assertiveness. President Tsai’s very re-election in January of this year was seen by many analysts as a rebuke to Beijing, which had effectively tried to influence the vote in the challenger’s favor.

China’s actions at re-enforcing its superiority and claims over Taiwan however have not been limited to such covert actions and it has often chosen to project its force as well. Most recently, between the 18^th and 19^th of September this year, Chinese warplanes crossed the sensitive median line across the narrow strait that separates the mainland from the island almost 40 times. These included a mixture of H-6 bombers, J-10, J-11 and J-16 fighters and a Y-8 anti-submarine warfare plane, according to Taiwan’s Defence Ministry press releases. While the ministry also said in a statement that it had “issued radio warnings, scrambled fighters and deployed air defense missile systems to monitor the activities,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin in fact reasserted the legality of the operations. In his statement “China’s forces had operated legally because… Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory and there is no so-called median line.” It has thus become evident that the Chinese government has not only sought to uphold its claims to Taiwan, but in fact significantly reasserted the same.

The Eastern Theatre Command of the Chinese PLA said in a statement that the exercises conducted were in fact necessary owing to the “current situation in the Taiwan strait.” This ‘current situation’ is symbolic of nothing other than the US’ increasing interest in the island and the region. This is especially true since the exercises were a precursor to the visit of Keith Krach, the US undersecretary for economic growth, energy and the environment on the 17^th of September; the highest-level US official to visit the Island in decades. This visit similarly came just a month after Alex Azar, the US secretary of health and human services visited Taiwan in August. These two high-level diplomatic visits possibly reflect the Trump administrations effort to counter China’s attempts to isolate Taiwan on the global stage. Currently, only 15 countries maintain official diplomatic ties with Taiwan, none of which are key global powers. In this regard, the Trump administration also unveiled its unofficial embassy in Taipei, in the form of the new American Institute in 2018; a massive rebuke to Beijing.

These developments couldn’t have occurred at a better time for Taiwan, though, because as Washington and Taipei have deepened their ties, so also has China begun asserting its own strength simultaneously. The increase in military exercises in the South China Sea and the Taiwan straits has coincided with China’s rapid military development and modernization and is symbolic of its aspirations and possible future actions in the region. This has coincided with the United States increasing its own presence in the region. It must be therefore be noted that full scale military confrontation may not merely be a product of voluntary action but could also result out of accidental circumstances; the risk of which is growing. In retaliation to China’s claims and assertiveness in the region, the United states in its own show of military prowess has increased the transit of American warships through the Taiwan Strait. Similarly, it has also increased its own naval presence in the South China Sea; stationing both warships and aircraft carriers in the region. Additionally, the Trump administration also announced the establishment of a new economic dialogue with Taiwan that would be focused on technology, health care and energy among other sectors. These engagements however must not be taken to mean that the US will defend the island in the event of a full-scale invasion by the PLA; at least not yet.

Nonetheless, for Taiwan, the diplomatic visits and military engagements are opportunities for it to demonstrate stronger ties with the US; especially as it faces a more significant threat from China. As the US-China relationship has deteriorated on the global stage; starting with the trade war and then deteriorating further since the beginning of the pandemic, so also has China warned that it would respond “as necessary” if the United States continues to support Taiwan in any way. With Beijing’s aspirations becoming more assertive on the international stage since Xi Jinping has taken control, it is only likely that it will soon also seek to achieve sovereign control over Taiwan as well; especially since Xi has been clear in his ambitions to “reunify” the island with the mainland. It can thus be expected that China will continue to undermine both Taiwan’s legitimacy internationally, and military capabilities internally; in a bid to weaken its resistance.

In this regard, in the aftermath of the announcement of the $7 billion deal by the Trump administration, an editorial released by the Global Times China claimed that “Once the People’s Liberation Army dispatches troops to reunify the island of Taiwan, the military equipment from the U.S. will be nothing but decorations.” While this may definitely bolster the Chinese Communist Party’s flawed and concocted narratives, it is a claim that cannot be given much credence. In the opinion of observers at the very least, “The Taiwanese may not be able to overturn the balance of power now, but they can definitely improve their ability to raise the costs on China.” Whatever the outcome may be though, the re-election of President Tsai, increased security and economic engagements with the United States, and Taiwan’s own indigenous defense plans have put it at the center of regional contestation. Taiwan may have chosen to bolster its security through engagements with the US, however only time will tell whether it will be enough to curtail Chinese aggression, or even all out invasion.

Pic courtesy- John Torcasio at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are personal.)