North Korean Missile Tests and Impact on East Asia
At the 2021 year-end Plenary Meeting, the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un expressed his desire to improve people's lives by focusing over nukes. The speech came against the backdrop of severe economic crises and food shortages faced by North Korea due to the pandemic and isolation. Yet, North Korea welcomed the new year by testing seven missiles in January 2022.
On January 5 and 11, North Korea tested Hypersonic missiles. On January 14, North Korea fired two Ballistic missiles from the train. On January 17, the country launched two tactical guided missiles and, on January 31, fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile. CNN reports that the seventh missile is suspected to be a hypersonic glided vehicle, making North Korea's longest-range missile tested since 2017. One may ponder how a leader can pursue a flurry of more powerful missile tests even after acknowledging the food crises. Nonetheless, that is how North Korea reminds the world of its powerful existence!
Policies behind Nuclear and Missile Programs
To understand why North Korea develops nuclear and missile programs despite having harsh economic conditions, it is necessary to understand the regime's doctrines.
1. Juche: Developed by the supreme leader Kim Il-sung, Juche is North Korea's state ideology that roughly means 'self-reliance'. Based on the Marxist-Leninist school of thought, Juche is used to justify North Korea's political independence (jaju), economic self-sufficiency (jarip), and military self-reliance (jawi). The Juche ideology motivates North Korea to remain independent from colonial powers and depend solely on its strength and leaders. Juche also differs North Korea from South Korea that is politically and militarily 'supported' by the USA. In sum, Juche answers North Korea's threats by motivating the regime to develop Missile and Nuclear programs.
2. Byungjin: In the 1960s, Leader Kim il-sung introduced the policy of Byungjin, which focused on developing the military and the economy simultaneously. The policy reasoned North Korea's emphasis on developing nuclear weapons parallelly with the economy via the Five-Year plans. In fact, it is said that developing nuclear programs is the only successful consequence of the Byungjin policy.
3. Songun: Songun or Songun Jeongchi is a 'military-first' policy of North Korea, adopted by Kim Jong-il in the mid-1990s. The Songun policy prioritizes the military or the Korean People's Army and strengthens defense capabilities. The policy came after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 that further compelled North Korea to improve its defense abilities independently. Songun can be called a component of the Juche idea, which modernizes the military sector of North Korea. The policy mandated the North Korean population to undergo conscription and promoted the development of nuclear weapons.
North Korea's Missile Programs and Nuclear Tests
Hwasong, Toksha, Nodong, Taepodong, and Musudan missiles formed the backbone of North Korean missile development programs. Initially, North Korea sought Soviet assistance to acquire the missile development framework. Between the 1970 to 2000s, North Korea imported missile technology and missile aid from the Soviet Union, Iran, Pakistan, and China. Many North Korean missiles, such as the Hwasong- 5, were made after the Soviet Union's Scud-B (Singh, 2022). Because of the foreign assistance, North Korea accelerated the missile development despite having poor economic conditions. This section briefly discusses the crucial missile programs of the DPRK.
Hwasong: This program was undertaken to develop short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM), which range 300-500km and can conveniently travel to South Korea. According to Singh, North Korea is suspected of having received "ample aid from China, Russia, Egypt, and Iran" while developing Hwasong missiles (2022). It is said to be inspired by the Soviet Union's Scud-B, with increased diameter, improved range, and new rocket fuel (Singh, 2022).
Toksha: Toksha is another improvised SRBM, which resembles the Russian-built OTR-21 Tochka. There are speculations that North Korea received this from Syria in the 1990s (CSIS, 2021). It was first tested in 2006 and had a range of 120-170 km.
Nodong: North Korea began developing Nodong in the mid-1980s as a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). Under the observation of Pakistan and Iran, North Korea successfully conducted the first test of Nodong in 1993. North Korea is said to have exported Nodong technology to Pakistan and Iran, which can be seen through Pakistan's Ghauri-II and Iran's Shahab- 3 (Singh, 2022). Nodong has required several tests as North Korea faced difficulties in achieving the accuracy of this missile. By 2016, Nodong travelled a distance of 1000KM, which proves that it can be deployed to cover a bigger range. According to CSIS, Nodong can "effectively be used to target large cities, airports, or harbors" (2021).
Taepodong: It is believed that North Korea developed a first-ever multi-stage missile i.e., Taepodong, to use it as an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM). North Korea began developing Taepodong in the 1980s to gain ICBM potential. However, Taepodong-1 failed, leading to the inauguration of Taepodong-2 in the early 1990s. Taepodong is formed after combining the technology of Nodong and Hwasong. Some scholars have speculated that if it becomes successful, then North Korea could quickly attack San Fransisco and the Pacific coast as the missile can travel 10,000km effortlessly. The Taepodong test threatened the USA directly (Singh, 2022).
Musudan: Based on the Soviet Union's R-27 missile, Musudan is North Korea's attempt to upgrade its intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). Its estimated range is between 2500km to 4000km, making North Korea capable of hitting the US bases in Okinawa and Guam (Singh, 2022).
Nuclear Tests: Since 2006, North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests. With each test, North Korea has improvised its nuclear capabilities. The first and second tests were conducted in October 2006 and May 2009 under the supervision of Kim Jong-il. Kim Jong-un accelerated the nuclear programs with four more nuclear tests – February 2013, January and September 2016, and September 2017- and has conducted more than 125 missile tests under his reign (CFR, 2021). While the previous nuclear tests portrayed North Korea's intentions to the world, the test carried out on September 3, 2017, "indicated that North Korea has developed much more powerful bomb-making technology" (CFR, 2021).
The following illustrations show North Korea's Ballistic Missiles and the launches -:
Source: CSIS
Source: CSIS
Importance of missiles and nukes to North Korea
According to the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR), the country has tested more than 100 ballistic missiles, including short, medium, intermediate, and intercontinental-range missiles and submarine-launched ones, which can carry nuclear warheads. In 2017, the regime conducted an ICBM test, which can carry a large nuclear warhead and has a potential range of 13,000 km (CFR, 2021). The UN security council has also punished North Korea for such' rogue' behaviour through sanctions.
Undoubtedly, sanctions have made it difficult for the regime to raise money. Yet, the Kim family has managed to sponsor their nuclear ambitions by exporting North Korean workers worldwide and through illegal activities like counterfeiting money, drugs, insurance fraud, and arms smuggling. The North Korean workers are deployed to China, Russia, Kuwait, Malaysia, Cambodia, Oman, Mongolia, Qatar, UAE, and many other African countries, who work under the surveillance of the North Korean agents. Their families are kept hostages to prevent defection. The North Korean workers make One Billion USD per year and fuel money to the Nuclear and Missile Programs. In this way, sanctions do more harm to the population of North Korea than the Kim family.
Despite sanctions, North Korea has fired missiles after missiles. This shows that improving the weapon system and modernizing defense capabilities are crucial for the survival of North Korea. Firstly, missile development helps North Korea deter the threat from the USA as it lessens North Korea's rising insecurity from the USA. In his last will, Kim Jong-il stated that "by developing and possessing a sufficient number of nuclear weapons, long-range missiles, and biochemical weapons", North Korea would be able to keep peace on the Korean peninsula and win the psychological war against the United States (Singh, 2022). Secondly, the missile and nuclear programs put North Korea on par with the major nuclear powers, hence legitimizing the Kim regime. The North Korean missile programs are not merely a tool but a 'prestigious' mission for the Kim family. It boosts their confidence to practice 'self-reliance' and confront a country like America. Moreover, the missile programs also convey the message to the world that the poor economic conditions of North Korea cannot obstruct its defense priorities. Thirdly, North Korea uses its missile and nuclear tests as a means of coercion. Through tests, it compels other states to shift their policies toward North Korea (Pollack, 2018). For example, the recent missile tests in January 2022 hint that North Korea wants attention from the USA. It intends to bring the USA to the negotiation table to discuss sanctions and joint military exercises of USA-South Korea.
Impact in the East Asian Region
When North Korea launched a flurry of missiles in 2022, it received fuming reactions from its neighbours. The US imposed sanctions on North Korea, and in response, North Korea fired more missiles, simply proving that sanctions do not stop North Korea from developing its missile programs. Amid the upcoming elections of South Korea, the incumbent President Moon Jae-in expressed his concern over rising tensions in the Korean peninsula. Likewise, Japan expressed deep regrets over the continued missile launches and lodged a formal protest against North Korea. In the meantime, China, who recently resumed trade with North Korea, has expressed its unhappiness with the tests but has also circulated a draft with Russia in 2021, urging the UNSC to end sanctions against North Korea.
The continuous testing of missiles by North Korea has challenged the stability in the Korean Peninsula and has infuriated other countries in East Asia like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China. Many experts believe that North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons can prompt an arms race in East Asia -- nuclear proliferation in South Korea and Japan (Lee, 2007). For this reason, the reactions towards North Korean missile tests have been apprehensive. South Korea is already expanding its budget for military expenditures and has built an advanced submarine-launched ballistic missile system. Similarly, Taiwan is also upgrading its military through modernization reforms and is purchasing more anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles. Japan has expressed its desire to revise the pacifist constitution and implement pre-emptive strike measures against North Korea. Meanwhile, China, whose actions have created a spur in the South China Sea, has expressed 'grave concerns' about North Korea's missile tests but has also shown flexibility due to obvious reasons. Although China being the 'big brother' cannot punish North Korea, constant missile launches have put pressure on China to act 'roughly'. North Korea is important for China as it creates a buffer zone between US bases in South Korea and China. Thus, China cannot afford to lose North Korea by heavily sanctioning it like the Western States.
Food shortages, flooding, pandemic, or sanctions—nothing has stopped North Korea from developing its defence capabilities. In fact, with time, North Korea has improved its missiles and has created manoeuvrable and non-detectable ballistic missiles. Sanctions have done more than discontinuing the tests – it has prevented the North Korean economy from flourishing through formal ways, led to the exploitation of North Koreans, and rise of illegal activities, making it difficult for the people of North Korea. Thus, the negotiations, not sanctions, can possibly bring peace to the Korean Peninsula.
References
1. Beauchamp, Z. (2018, June 18). Juche, the state ideology that makes North Koreans revere Kim Jong Un, explained. https://www.vox.com/world/2018/6/18/17441296/north-korea-propaganda-ideology-juche
2. CFR. (2021, December 22). What's the status of North Korea's nuclear program? https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-missile-tests-military-capabilities
3. CSIS. (2021, June 14). Missiles of North Korea. https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/
4. Lee, D. S. (2007). A nuclear North Korea and the stability of East Asia: A tsunami on the horizon? Australian Journal of International Affairs, 61(4), 436-454. doi:10.1080/10357710701684906
5. Lendon, B., & Seo, Y. (2022, January 31). Analysis: Kim Jong Un wants the world to know he still matters. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/01/30/asia/north-korea-missile-tests-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
6. Martinez, D. M., & Martins, C. P. (2016, December). The consolidation of North Korea as a Nuclear Power through the leadership of Kim Jong Un https://seer.ufrgs.br/austral/article/viewFile/60657/40870
7. Pollack, J. (2018). North Korea's nuclear and missile programs: Strategies, directions, and prospects. Krins Quarterly, 3(1), 99-137. doi:10.46322/krinsq.3.1.2
8.Singh, S. V. (2021). Inter Continental Missile Capabilities. CSS: Issue Brief, 1-14. doi:https://www.cssjsia.com/_files/ugd/348fae_f4825cc7a9124a6180bc74ef33437c66.pdf
9. Stone, J. P. (2021, September 26). North Korean missile tests and East Asian stability. https://theowp.org/north-korean-missile-tests-and-east-asian-stability/
Pic Courtsey-Micha Brandli at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are thoSe fo the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
