Japan’s approach towards Ukraine Crisis
Japan in its press statement after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, strongly condemned the act of aggression. Along with G7, they reiterated that strong sanctions will be applied. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a turning point in Japan’s foreign policy. Since the regime of Shinzo Abe Japan has tried to maintain a balance in its approach towards Russia while being a key ally and security partner of the US. Keeping that in mind as Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida argued Russian attack has shaken the foundations of international rules-based order we can conclude that amicable relations between the two will not be possible in the near future.
For Japan dependence on US for national security means it cannot disassociate itself from the United States’ foreign policy. Shinzo Abe approached Russia with a delicate balance to improve trade relations and move on from the past long standing hostility. However, the Ukraine crisis has radically changed the contours of the relationship. Thus, Japan aligning its approach to the crisis with the west seems like a smarter move.
Japan Russia relations in the historical context.
Japan a long time US ally has had severe ties with Russia since the Japan-Russia war in 1904 for the control of the region of Manchuria. Followed by this was Japanese intervention in the Russian civil war from 1918 to 1922 when it send troops to Russian Far East and Siberia. Border conflicts throughout the 1930s followed between the Soviet Union and the empire of Japan, a rising and dominating power of the east at the time. Peace followed when a non-aggression pact was signed in 1941 but soon after Russia joined World War II and declared war on Japan. Russia invaded Manchukuo controlled by Japan at that time and the Kuril Chain of Island, north of Japan. Although the formal state of war ended with the Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration of 1956, the territorial dispute relating to the Kuril Islands is still a bone of contention between the two powers.
Talks were held between the two countries regarding the islands several times once when after the fall of the Berlin war Gorbachev visited Japan but an agreement was reached again in the late 1990s between Boris Yeltsin and Japan PM Ryutaro Hashimato to solve a peace treaty by the year of 2020.
However, the progress has been slow, Shino Abe made sincere efforts so that a peace treaty could take form. His era, which ended in 2020 as he stepped down from the helms of the affair, was marked by an active engagement with the Russians to settle the long standing island dispute. He even set up a 2+2 defence and diplomatic ministerial meeting with Russia, a first in Russia-Japan relations.[1] Putin, however, has been reluctant to hand over the islands to Japan and that is the prime reason why talks have failed many times.[2] In July 2020 Russian government added a clause in an amendment to the constitution of July 2020 that explicitly banned territorial concession. Even though Shino Abe settled for half the territory to be passed to Russia.[3] The inclusion of this clause made it clear that Putin will not part ways with its territory, especially to a US ally.
Until this peace treaty is signed to solve issue of the Kuril Islands it is difficult to assume that the Russian-Japan relationship will ever be normal. The successors of Abe in Japan do not hold on to much hope. And further, with the Ukrainian crisis Japan has also called for stringiest actions against Russia.
Like India in the region, with the rise of China as a powerful force in the region, Japan is also in a complex position. As the US is the key ally of Japan, the United States’ deplorable relations with China and Russia will simultaneously result in affecting Japan’s relations with both these countries. For a long Russia has not been a priority in the strategic calculation of Japan in the Asia- Pacific region.[4] The primary strategic option Russia possesses in Northeast Asia today is China.[5] Also, climate change is said to benefit the region and Russia is determined to utilise the opportunity. In 2007 the Kremlin pledged to allocate up to 600 billion rubles ($21.7 billion) to fund development projects in Eastern Siberia and the Far East by the year 2013, and 9 trillion rubles ($326 billion) by the year 2025.[6] Now, to ignore Russia’s presence in the region would be a mistake and hence Shino Abe made a final effort to sign the peace treaty and develop peaceful relations with Russia. The economic engagement of Russia and Japan has also never been much strong. In 2020, Russia was Japan’s 13th-largest import partner and accounted for about 1% of Japanese exports.[7] Shinzo Abe did offer deepening economic relations to Russia but enthusiasm on the Russian side was low.[8] Hence, Japanese investments in Russia remain low and insignificant. Russia will now be considered an unreliable member of the International institutions and for a long time will be neglected by the developed economies. Thus, the option of improving engagement remains significantly low.
Russian invasion.
While Japan was in the process to solve the island, Russia decided to invade Ukraine and Japan had to shift its approach in dealing with the situation. Japan since the invasion of Ukraine has been more assertive and stringent in its foreign policy towards Russia. Compare to the times when Shinzo Abe era, Japan in the bid to influence Russia, Japan was the only G7 member not to expel any Russian Official when in March 2018 Russian intelligence officers conducted a botched assassination attempt on British soil using a nerve agent.[9] However, now Japan has been aligning its policies with the G7 by sanctioning Russia.[10] Since the invasion, it has announced exports bans on essential items like semiconductors, communication, equipment, sensors and radar. Japan has also frozen the assets of Russian individuals in Japan. In addition to that, Japan has also decided to ban Russia from the SWIFT global payment systems.[11] Russia’s role as an aggressor in the conflict cannot be denied and it has given a deep shock to the international system. Bringing the era of arms race, wars and power politics back. Japan has been a major beneficiary of the post-World War international order. It has been the leader in promoting trade in a free and safe indo-pacific. Russia with its actions has violated these norms of state sovereignty and destabilized international relations which have threatened Japan’s position. Also, with the China threat looming large Japan’s position has become even more precarious. With Russian invasion causing chaos in the international system, the probability of China invading Taiwan also increases.
Conclusion
A turn that Japan took to ease and stabilise its relationship with Russia resulted in nothing. And, now with the Russian invasion of Ukraine Japan need to orient its priorities with the G7. The US and its allies are natural partners of Japan and it is better to keep in the circle rather than trying to balance between two adversaries. Japan approach to the Ukraine crisis is the result of the past and its future foreign policy moves.
Notes
[1] Taisuke, Abiru (2021), “Japan-Russia Relations in the Post-Abe Era”, Carnegie, Moscow Center, 18th March URL: 221 https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/84111
[2] Ryosuke, Ishibashi and Sato Tatsuya (2021), “Putin indicates reluctance to discuss disputed isles with Japan”, The Asahi Shimbun, 16 February 2021. URL: https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14194419
[3] Brown, James D.J. (2016), “Abe’s 2016 Plan to Break the Deadlock in the Territorial Dispute with Russia”, The Asia-Pacific Journal, Vol4, Issue 4 (1), 15 February 2016. URL: https://apjjf.org/2016/04/Brown.html
[4] Ferguson, Joseph (2011), “The US Japan Alliance and Russia “, The US-Japan Security Alliance, Plagrave Macmillan, New York. URL:https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230120150_11?noAccess=true
[5] Ferguson, Joseph (2011), “The US Japan Alliance and Russia “, The US-Japan Security Alliance, Plagrave Macmillan, New York. URL:https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230120150_11?noAccess=true
[6] “Russian Govt. Approves Far East Development Program,” Itar-Tass, August 2, 2007. Also, see Sergei Blagov, “Moscow Promises Huge Funds to Develop Far East,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4, no. 176 (September 24, 2007).
[7] Govella, Kristi (2022), “Ukraine: A Turning Point In Japanese Foreign Policy?” , Pac-Net, 9 March 2022. URL: https://pacforum.org/publication/pacnet-15-ukraine-a-turning-point-in-japanese-foreign-policy
[8] EURACTIV.com, “Japan woos Russia with deeper economic ties”, Reuters, 1 September 2016. URL: https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/japan-woos-russia-with-deeper-economic-ties/
[9] Brown, James (2022), “Putin’s Invasion Is a Turning Point in Japan’s Relations with Russia”, Tokyo Review, 28 February, 2022. URL:https://www.tokyoreview.net/2022/02/putins-invasion-is-a-turning-point-in-japans-relations-with-russia/
[10] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Sanction Measures following the launch of military actions by Russia in Ukraine (Statement by Foreign Minister HAYASHI Yoshimasa)”, 25 February 2025. URL: https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press6e_000371.html
[11] Reuters, “Japan imposes sanctions on 17 more Russians, including billionaire”, 15 March 2022. URL:https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-sanctions-17-russians-by-regulating-payments-capital-transactions-mof-2022-03-15/
Pic Courtesy-JJ Ying at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
