Iranian drones & missiles attack on Israel

Analysis:

· The historical backdrop of animosity between Iran and Israel stems from deep-seated geopolitical rivalries, ideological disparities, and regional power struggles. Iran's backing of proxy groups like Hezbollah, Houthis and Hamas, alongside its nuclear ambitions and anti-Israel rhetoric, has intensified long-standing tensions. Recent events, including an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian consulate in Syria on April 01^st, 2024 and subsequent retaliatory actions by Iran, have worsened the situation. The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, notably sparked by Hamas' attack on October 7th, 2023, and the ensuing Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip, have further heightened tensions in the Middle East, resulting in significant casualties.

· During the night hours (local time) of April 13, large number of sources indicated about high level government meetings in Israel, following closing of Israeli, Iranian, Iraqi, Yemen, Lebanon and Jordanian airspace. Sources also indicated significant disruptions to GPS signals in Israeli and Jordanian airspace, most likely caused by Israeli Jamming efforts in the region.

· Following that, multiple reports started claiming high likelihood of Iranian attack on Israel in the coming hours.

· Later, sources confirmed a large number of Iranian drones being airborne and heading towards Israel.

· The drone attack from Iran happened in three waves. First wave included UAVs launched from Iran. Second wave began from Syria, Yemen and Iraq and included drones and rockets. In third wave, cruise and ballistic missiles were launched.

· Hezbollah also confirmed that it fired two barrages of rockets at an Israeli military base in the Golan Heights.

· Some sources also indicated towards reported cyber-attacks targeting Israeli radars.

· Israel Air Force jets along with the US, the UK, Jordan, and other allies tried to intercept drones outside Israeli territory, notably inside Iraqi and Jordanian airspace to reduce their numbers. Israeli air defence systems could be seen intercepting the projectiles in the Israeli airspace.

· At the time of writing, most of the countries mentioned above have reopened their airspaces.

· According to the reports, The US Navy dispatched the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Dwight Eisenhower towards Israel and UK Air Force has dispatched its Voyager KC2 refuelling aircraft.

· An urgent UN Security Council meeting on the attack is scheduled for 20:00 GMT.

Assessment:

· The recent conflict between Iran and Israel showcased a complex interplay of military capabilities, geopolitical tensions, and strategic narratives.

· A significant number of the launched projectiles were intercepted by Israel, the US and other allies before approaching Israeli territory, the remaining were taken down by Israeli missile defence systems. Though, a few missiles were able to penetrate Israeli air defences, there were no reports of substantial damage to life and property. This highlighted the effectiveness of their defence systems.

· Sources indicate that Iran utilized outdated models from their military inventory for the attacks, which had previously been relegated to storage due to concerns regarding their reliability. Despite their antiquated status, these drones and missiles effectively depleted resources of Israeli and allied forces by necessitating the deployment of costly anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems in response.

· According to Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), for the first time Iran used missiles with separable warheads to break through Israel's air defences.

· Both Iran and Israel presented narratives favourable to their respective audiences, claiming success in intercepting or hitting targets. Israel claimed to have intercepted all missiles, while Iran boasted about successfully hitting all intended targets.

· Iran's decision to retaliate without escalating aggression indicates a calculated approach to avoid further confrontation, potentially reflecting internal and external pressures.

Forecast:

· Israel is likely to retaliate against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Syria rather than directly targeting Iran. This approach allows Israel to assert its military capabilities while minimizing the risk of wider conflict. Retaliatory strikes on Yemen and Iraq, particularly against Iranian-backed groups, may occur but could carry diplomatic ramifications and potential escalation risks.

· Israeli actions will be influenced by the need to balance deterrence with the avoidance of further escalation, considering both domestic political dynamics and international implications.

· Retaliatory strikes by Israel could provoke responses from Iranian proxies and allies, potentially leading to further violence and regional instability.

· Direct strikes on Iran are improbable in the near term but cannot be entirely ruled out, especially if the situation deteriorates or if Israel perceives a significant threat to its security.

· Diplomatic efforts will be crucial in mitigating tensions and preventing a broader conflict, with key stakeholders likely engaging in behind-the-scenes negotiations to de-escalate the situation.

· Israeli decision-making may be influenced by internal political considerations, including the influence of ultra-Orthodox forces and the broader political landscape.

· The need to maintain domestic support while navigating regional tensions will shape Israel's response strategy and diplomatic engagements.

Image Courtesy: Google Maps.

(The views are those of the author only and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)