Development of hypersonic weapons and new wars
“Hypersonic Missiles are unstoppable, and they are starting a new global arms race.” – The TimesOur world is entering a new age of warfare, defined by the digital revolution. The introduction of technology in wars has compelled decision-makers to ponder whether human involvement is necessary for wars. Technology is changing the mode of fighting by making militaries smarter, faster, and scarier. Unlike the old wars that were solely fought between armed forces using conventional weapons, new wars have benefitted from globalization and have led to perpetual fighting. Hypersonic weapons are also a part of new wars that use unbounded technology to attack and defeat high-value targets from thousands of miles away. There is no doubt that technology has helped create autonomous weapons and update military tactics, but if it goes unchecked, it can threaten to destabilize the world.
Old Wars v New Wars
In her article, In Defence of New Wars, Mary Kaldor differentiates between old and new wars. According to Kaldor, new wars are the product of globalization. “They take place in areas where authoritarian states have been…weakened” after opening up to the rest of the world (Kaldor, 2013). She further explains that the distinction between state and non-state, public and private, external and internal, economic and political, is blurred under the new wars.
The old wars differed from the new wars based on actors, goals, methods, and forms of finance. Old wars were fought between regular armed forces of states, whereas new wars involve state and non-state actors such as regular armed forces, mercenaries, jihadists, paramilitaries, warlords, etc. In the past, old wars were fought to gain geopolitical interests or authorize a particular ideology such as democracy or socialism. In recent times, wars are fought over identities (ethnic, tribal, or religious). Local and transnational groups want to gain access to the state for better representation of their groups. In old wars, battles were used as decisive encounters. The goal of old wars was to capture territory through military means. Instead, in new wars, political means such as population displacement are used to capture territories. Targets have also changed as in the new wars, and violence is aimed mainly at civilians in place of armed forces. In terms of financing, states used to finance the old wars. In new wars, groups use different sources to get resources. Kidnapping, smuggling, diamonds, trafficking, drugs, etc., have emerged as new ways of financing new wars (Kaldor, 2013). According to Lt Gen VR Raghavan (retd), “new wars have become instruments of politics instead of policy” (2015). The goals of new wars are to gain the state's power through open, globalized, and decentralized activities.
New Wars and Technology
The new wars are scarier, and thus the government tries to isolate society and the economy from wars. For example, during World War I and World War II, the state mobilized all of its resources towards war, leading to negative consequences such as inflation, unemployment, etc. These negative consequences of war have made wars unpopular among the general people. For example, America ended its conscription after the Vietnam War, which further phased out of mas armies. In the current times, the government is dependent on its people to stay in power. Thus, governments ensure that the military adventures do not negatively impact its population to maintain popular support. In contemporary times, the government relies on military technology to control the ill-impacts of wars on people (All Answers, 2018). Technology has also helped the military develop hypersonic, automated, AI-infused missiles, drones, and robots. In old wars, killing civilians was considered a valuable strategy to defeat the enemy (Hiroshima and Nagasaki Atom Bomb). However, new wars use technologies to ensure that only enemy combatants are killed. Military technology also helps lower the casualties by replacing humans with drones, killer robots, missiles, etc.
Nonetheless, every coin has two sides. Although military technology infused with AI and automated weapons makes it easier to ‘control’ the war, it also can provoke flash wars. Flash wars happen “when one automated system reacts to another, which causes a third to react, and so on.” (Franke, 2018). New wars weapons are capable of high-dree autonomy. For example, Nagorno Karabakh in the Caucasus mountains, a disputed region, was fought over by two former Soviet Republics: Armenia and Azerbaijan. This war provided a glimpse of future wars. Azerbaijan used “loitering munitions” or “Harop” bought from Israel's state-owned defense manufacturer, IAI. Once launched, loitering munitions can fly autonomously to a target area, where they can loiter in the sky for hours to look for targets. Once they find targets, instead of dropping bombs, they fly into them. This has earned them the nickname of “kamikaze drones.” Ultimately for Azerbaijan, autonomous weapons won the war. According to General John M. Murray, future wars are expected to have drone swarms and other automated hypersonic weapons. He explains the issue of speed that can emerge out of autonomous weapons. To launch a drone attack, “a human may be required to make the first decision,” but it is highly doubtable if any human can keep up with a drone swarm after the attack is launched.
Hypersonic Weapons
The idea of developing hypersonic weapons is not new. The first rocket-boosted glider flew back in 1928 when German engineers on the cusp of WWII tried to extend the range of Von Braun’s V-2 by having it glide towards intended targets. After the war, America and the Soviet Union used German rocket scientists and technology to produce this technology, leading to the production of Alfa Draco in the 1950s along with space shuttles.
Hypersonic technology was developed during the cold war. Both the United States of America and the Soviet Union were competing to create the technology. The Bumper rocket, built by America by combining the German V-2 rocket and the WAC Corporal sounding rocket, was the first manufactured object to achieve hypersonic flight. In April 1961, Russia’s Yuri Gagarin became the first human to travel at hypersonic speed in the world’s first piloted orbital flight. Whereas in May 1961, Alan Shephard of America became the second person to travel at hypersonic speed. Following this, the US began researching the issues faced during hypersonic flights and came up with problems like heating and re-entering the atmosphere. In the 21st century, hypersonic technology is widely studied and improved by countries like China, India, Russia, and the US, entering the arms race.
According to Carnegie, hypersonic weapons travel at least five times faster than the speed of sound, which is roughly 4,000 miles per hour. At this speed, a hypersonic weapon could travel between and New York and Beijing in 1 hour 40 minutes. Countries like China, Russia, and the United States have their ballistic missiles flying at hypersonic speeds. Unlike ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons use speed and maneuverability over long ranges. In addition to their speed, these weapons are extremely accurate and precise.
There are three basic types of hypersonic weapons -: guided ballistic missiles, hypersonic cruise missiles, and boost-glide missiles. Guided ballistic missiles have steering fins attached to direct them to the target. Boost glide missiles are propelled to incredible speeds by rockets. Rather than arching high above the atmosphere like ballistic missiles, gliders re-enter the atmosphere shortly after launch and stay aloft using aerodynamics. Hypersonic cruise missiles are powered throughout their flight. The speed of the engine forces air into the engine, where it combusts at supersonic speed. China, Russia, and the USA are researching Hypersonic cruise missiles. Russia seems to be closer to deploying hypersonic cruise missiles, which reportedly have a short range of about 300 miles. However, both guided ballistic missiles and boost-glide missiles have been deployed by many countries at various stages.
Who has What?
Russia’s Avangard is a long-range boost glided missile. It is designed to deploy nuclear warheads against the United States. Kinzhal is a guided ballistic missile launched from an aircraft. It is reported that it travels half the speed of an Avangard and has a range of about 1,200 miles. According to President Putin, it can carry both nuclear and conventional warheads (Yeo et al., 2021).
China’s DF (Dong-Feng) 26 is a guided ballistic missile, which can travel about 2,500 miles and likely re-enters the atmosphere faster than ten times the speed of sound. Like Russia’s Kinzhal, it can reportedly carry either nuclear or conventional warheads. China also launched a new boost-glide missile, DF- 17, which was showed off in a military parade held in October 2019 (Yeo et al., 2021).
America has not deployed any maneuverable hypersonic weapons. According to Carnegie, for more than two decades, the US has focused on improving its ability to conduct prompt conventional strikes. To do so, America has focused on boost-glide missiles that can carry non-nuclear warheads over thousands of miles. In November 2011, the USA successfully tested a hypersonic glider that traveled over 2400 miles. According to James M. Acton (Co-director of Nuclear Policy Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), although America has not yet deployed a maneuverable hypersonic weapon, its hypersonic program is more sophisticated than China’s and Russia’s missile (Yeo et al., 2021).
In 2020, the Defense Research and Development Organization successfully tested the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HSTDV), making India the fourth country after Russia, China, and America to have hypersonic technology. According to Amrita Nayak Dutta, HSTDV “is a dual-use technology that would have multiple civilian applications” (2020). The test paved the way for India to develop missiles in the next five-six years. India is also cooperating with Russia to develop a Brahmos II hypersonic cruise missile (Yeo et al., 2021).
Other countries like Japan, Korea, Australia, and Pakistan are also in pursuit of developing hypersonic technology. Japan plans to build a hypersonic cruise missile and hypervelocity gliding projective. South Korea’s defense minister has also stated that the nation would develop long-range hypersonic missiles. Its counterpart, North Korea, also claims to develop hypersonic missiles. In 2020, Australia resealed defense documents that state investments worth USD 7.1 billion in hypersonic weapons. Lastly, Pakistan also claimed to equip future warships with the P282 hypersonic missile (Yeo et al., 2021).
Implications
With the advent of technology, countries are advancing their military with long-range missiles, hypersonic technology, AI, drones, killer robots, etc. Nonetheless, technology has also increased fear and uncertainty, leading to the arms race. For instance, one by one, several countries in the Asia-Pacific region are developing hypersonic weapons. The new arms race is also more challenging to control due to a lack of consensus among nations. There is a feeling of untrust and doubt in the current world order. Moreover, the technology is becoming cheaper or easily accessible, which is accelerating its spread. For example, Azerbaijan bought Kamikaze drones from Israel and used them to win the war against Armenia. The new arms race is also frightening because the autonomy is given to weapons once a human launches them.
Is there a way out?
Today, a war can erupt out of nowhere and spin out of control, killing thousands. There is also an urgent challenge to keep the weapons out of control. The “guiding principle" established are also of no use as the rule-makers occasionally violate these principles. Some campaigners have also called for a ‘ban,’ but it is also of no use. Forums operate by consensus, and hence any one state can block progress or negotiations. It is also implausible for the US to support a ban on automated weapons as it has set its principles that include human involvement in launching decisions. Since countries like Russia, China, America, and India are all racing to develop areas of AI technology in weapons, it is questionable whether those countries would like to sign up for a treaty that limits their powers. Also, tackling an intangible technology like AI is complicated. In the past, arms control treaties limited the allocation of warheads, missiles, etc., unlike with AI-enable weapon systems. No matter what, international organizations must encourage some developments to prohibit the use of autonomous technology. This can only be done when significant powers come together to limit weapons outside human control.
References
All Answers Ltd. (November 2018). Why Is Contemporary Warfare Considered Entirely New? Retrieved from https://ukdiss.com/examples/contemporary-warfare-considered-new.php?vref=1
Dutta, A. N. (2020, September 7). What's a hypersonic missile India is building and how it is different from other missiles. The Print. https://theprint.in/theprint-essential/whats-a-hypersonic-missile-india-is-building-and-how-it-is-different-from-other-missiles/497883/.
Franke, U. (2018, November 22). Flash wars: Where could an autonomous weapons revolution lead us? ECFR. https://ecfr.eu/article/flash_wars_where_could_an_autonomous_weapons_revolution_lead_us.
Hypersonic Missiles Arms Race: What You Need to Know. (2020). YouTube. Hypersonic Missiles Arms Race: What You Need to Know.
Kaldor, M. (2013, March 7). International journal of security and development. Stability. https://www.stabilityjournal.org/articles/10.5334/sta.at/.
The future of modern warfare: How technology is transforming conflict. (2021). YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmlBkW6ANsQ.
The Rise of Hypersonic Missiles. (2020). YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXP3VZ7ldyg.
Wars old and new. Tribune India News Service. (2015). https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/archive/comment/wars-old-and-new-161509.
Yeo, M., Pittaway, N., Ansari, U., Raghuvanshi, V., & Martin, C. (2021, March 15). Hypersonic and directed-energy Weapons: Who has them, and who's winning the race in the Asia-Pacific? Defense News. https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/03/15/hypersonic-and-directed-energy-weapons-who-has-them-and-whos-winning-the-race-in-the-asia-pacific/.
Pic Courtesy-Federico Beccari at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
