China’s arms exports to Southeast Asia – A Critical Update

Emerging security concerns in the region

The region of South East Asia has always been at the centre stage of the world affairs due to its geostrategic importance, resource richness, huge labour supply, cheaper manufacturing, creditworthiness, and regional stability which makes it an attractive destination for the foreign investors. The South China Sea is one of the major international waterways which are very important for global trade, as around USD $5 trillion of trade cargo passes through it annually. Also, the region holds the vast reserves of oil and gas, which makes it strategically important for the future energy needs.

Despite having differences and contemporary issues, many of the ASEAN countries have set an example of trade liberalisation in front of the global community, which needs to be diligently analysed. Though the countries more or less are forward-looking in their approach and give far more importance to the socio-economic stability, in recent times, the countries have started investing heavily in the arms acquisition. According to the SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), “the volume of the armed weapons in the South East Asian Countries grew by 33% from 2008-17”.

There are many factors which are attributing to the arms acquisition in the South East Asian region. Some of the factors which are common for all the countries are the: security of the trade routes and the chokepoints (Strait of Malacca) for the safe passage of goods and services, maritime boundary issues, extensive patrolling, growth pf new terrorist organisations, tackling transnational crime, internal security, countering insurgencies, fighting piracy, disaster relief measures and many others.

Apart from these general security issues, certain external issues are also leading to growing insecurity and disturbance in the region. The major role in this scenario is played by China. The country’s claims in the South China Sea has led to the rise in tension among all its neighbours which has, in turn, led to the increased expenditure on the acquisition of arms. China’s infamous “nine-dash line” covers the strategic Spratly and Paracel island chains in the South China Sea and has made China the dominant power in the region. China has also been constructing the artificial islands and multiple military bases on the coral islands located in the region. Beijing has also extensively increased the patrolling in the region.

In 2013, the Philippines-China territorial dispute was raised by the Philippines to the (PCA) Permanent Court of Arbitration stating that Chinese claims have violated the sovereignty of Philippines under the UNCLOS (United Nation Convention on the Law of the Sea). In July 2016 the PCA later ruled that China does not have any legal basis to claim right over the islands in the South China Sea (SCS) and has clearly violated the sovereignty of the Philippines. It stated that China “had no historic rights to resources in the waters of the South China Sea” and that “such rights were extinguished to the extent they were incompatible with the exclusive economic zones provided for in the Convention.”

International support

The South-East Asian countries have been receiving support from the international community against the rising assertiveness of China. Various countries like India, Japan, Germany, France, UK and majorly the US have increased their activity in the region and has been constantly struggling and demanding the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”(FOIP), which is core demand for all the countries which have stakes in the region.

Japan has amended its arms sales policy in the region for the easy transfer of arms and ammunitions in the region along with the extensive trade. France has increased its naval deployment in the region along with the promotion of various military exercises and agreements in the region. Recently, Germany came out with its Indo-Pacific Strategy to boost its interaction with the regional stakeholders like the ASEAN.

India is constantly increasing its engagement with the ASEAN countries. It has upgraded its “Look East Policy” of 1991 into the “Act East Policy” of 2014, also the status of partnership has changed from ‘Sectoral Partner’ to that of the ‘Strategic Partner’. It has also been successful in signing defence related bilateral agreements with a few countries like Vietnam and the Philippines. Though, New Delhi has not been much successful in the exports of arms and ammunitions in the region, except for Myanmar. Apart from that, India, the US, Australia and Japan have formed a Quad grouping to maintain stability in the region.

The US has also increased its presence and patrolling on a huge scale in the region. It has placed the navy fleet around the disputed territory and has referred it as the “freedom of navigation operations”(FONOPS). It is expanding its links in the region through its allies like Australia and Japan, along with the help of new partners in the region like Vietnam and India. It is also working toward the increased arms supply in the region.

China’s Dominance in the region

The dominance of China in the region can be understood by the fact that it has been able to do almost the impossible i.e. selling its arms to the nations with which it is having the territorial disputes. Therefore, Beijing is walking on a tightrope, where it is managing the business and trade deals on one hand and on the other hand it is also maintaining its pressure by constructing artificial islands and military bases in the South China Sea.

The policy of arms and ammunitions sales of China in South East Asia is majorly a part of its larger policy narrative of countries in the “Belt and Road Initiative”, which is an investment and infrastructure development program for the economic integration of countries along the civilizational ‘Silk Road’.

Major suppliers of arms to the ASEAN countries

As per the SIPRI data, Russia is the major exporter of arms and ammunition in the region. The major factor behind the leading position of Russia is the economic viability which is associated with its arms industry. Russia’s flexible payment options like the barter trade, soft loans, government credits, and others help the developing countries in acquiring the arms easily with a lot more ease. It is the major exporter of arms to Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

The United States has been a major player in the region and is continuously challenging the rise of China by increasing its presence. It is the second-largest exporter of arms and ammunitions in the region and is leading exporter in countries like the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. The arms export trade by the US is a little compromised due to the stringent sanctions like CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) which are imposed on the countries which buy weapons from Russia. With the increasing assertiveness and dominance of China in the region, the scope for increasing the trade and overall partnership is very much available to the US.

China is the fifth largest exporter of arms in the South East Asian region from the year 1999 – 2018, contributing to a total of 6.3% of the total exports. Also, the share of Beijing’s share in the exports has been increasing in the region over the years from 1999-2018. China is the major exporter of arms to various countries like Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Timor Leste.

China’s Arms Exports to the ASEAN countries

The trends in the procurement of arms among the South East Asian nations vary according to their needs and requirements. For instance, the major factor behind the arms acquisition of Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar is the internal and regional conflict. For the Philippines, it is majorly the replacement of the outdated weaponry. The major arms procured by the nations in the region are advanced anti-ship missile system, long-range combat aircraft and submarines.

Cambodia’s military spending has been increasing steadily since the last decade, there has been an increase of around 191% from the last decade. The increase in the procurement of arms can be attributed to the conflict and persistent border dispute with neighbouring Thailand. The major exporter of arms to the country is China, with an overall share of around 45%. Beijing offers a lucrative arms trade deals to the country as the majority of the arms transfer were funded by the Chinese aid and funds. The majority of the arms acquired from various countries has been land-based due to the unresolved border issues, including some tanks, APCs (Armoured Personnel Vehicle), and ‘Surface to Air’ missiles, which it acquired from China.

Laos’s acquisition has been low as compared to other countries in the region. Also, there is a lack of transparency in the arms acquisition data. The major exporter of the arms in the country is China, followed by Russia. Laos is also a partner of China in the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’. The acquired arms majorly consist of helicopters and aircraft mainly for transportation purpose. A few years back, Laos also placed the order for ‘Air Defence System’ from China and for tanks including some ‘light combat aircraft’ to Russia.

?Myanmar’s expenditure on acquisition of arms has not been transparent. The military government which was ruling the country till 2015 used public funds for the procurement of arms. The major exporter of the arms to the country is its ‘all-weather friend’; China, followed by Russia. The country is under the sanction by European Union (EU) which also includes the ban on ‘arms embargo’ since the 1990s, therefore not much of the options are available for the arms acquisition. Though the European nations have now started establishing the ties after the elections of 2015, which led to the formation of democratic government the embargo ban is still there on the transfer of certain arms.

Technical Problems with Chinese arms

Although China is gradually gaining prominence in the field of defence exports to ASEAN countries, the reliability and quality of these equipment still remain a question. Several facts and incidents give a sneak-peek into the quality issues faced by some of the defence equipment of Chinese origin.

The first example is from Jordan. In 2016, Jordan bought six Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) named CH-4B from China. These are developed by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. In 2019, i.e. three years after the acquisition, Jordan had to decommission the UCAVs. CH-4Bs were being flown by the Jordanian Air Force’s Squadron No. 9. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt, the UAE and Algeria also bought CH-4B from China. Iraq bought a fleet of ten UCAVs and surprisingly only one UCAV is currently in the operatable condition.

Cameroon is a Central African nation. In 2015, It went forward with the acquisition of 4 Chinese Harbin Z-9 which are attack helicopters. One of the helicopters was crashed soon after it was handed over to Cameroon. Mali had been using two Harbin Z-9 helicopters. In 2019, one helicopter crashed and the other one is not in a condition to fly. Although it is not clear that a technical glitch has caused these two events or not.

Norinco VN4 is an Armoured Personnel Carrier produced by Chongqing Tiema Industries Corporation which is a subsidiary company of China North Industries Corporation. It is called as ‘Rhinoceros’. Kenya bought 30 APCs as a part of $76 million deal which was brokered in 2016. Several fatal incidents have raised some serious questions about the reliability of these vehicles. As per a report by a Kenyan daily, The Standard, the experts have raised a lot of questions about the safety of these vehicles. It quotes:

“In the first case, the windscreen of one carrier was shattered in the middle of an operation. In another case, security personnel complained that some APCs were leaking, while others lacked proper ventilation to conduct operations in Coastal and Northern Kenya.”

Moreover, when the supplier was asked by personnel of the General Service Unit to prove the safety and durability of the APC by getting into the vehicle while the personnel shot at it from a close range, he refused, citing the safety issues.

Beijing’s policy on the arms trade and export share to various countries is not transparent and does not find any mention in the official documents of the government. China majorly engages with the country in the bilateral negotiations and deals differently with each country. The increasing exports of China’s arms in the South East Asian region can also be attributed to the “Belt and Road Initiative “, which seeks economic coordination in the Asian and African region. The Chinese arms trade is getting the boost in the region due to the reasons like competitive pricing, technology transfers, easy maintenance, up-gradation and joint production. Another major reason for the recent increase in the Chinese arms export to the ASEAN can be attributed to the fact that it does not put any condition or restriction over the usage of the transferred arms. Although China has been continuously increasing its share in the defence exports to the South East Asian countries, it is way behind compared to the traditional arms supplier in the region i.e. Russia, the US and the European nations.

*Special thanks to Dr Pankaj Jha for his valuable guidance.

References:

1.       https://web.archive.org/web/20150211121705/http://www.asean.org/news/item/the-asean-declaration-bangkok-declaration

2.     https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-asean#:~:text=The%20Association%20of%20Southeast%20Asian%20Nations%20(ASEAN)%20is%20a%20regional,Singapore%2C%20Thailand%2C%20and%20Vietnam.

3.      https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/south-china-sea-and-the-nine-dash-line-what-you-need-to-know/article14485046.ece1

4.     https://www.defenseworld.net/feature/39/Mixing_Business_with_Pressure__Chinese_Arms_Sales_in_South_East_Asia#.X4QNDmgzY2y

5.     https://www.beltroad-initiative.com/belt-and-road/

6.     https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/caatsa-the-spectre-of-us-sanctions/article32053452.ece

7.     https://merics.org/sites/default/files/2020-07/Chinas%20growing%20security%20role%20in%20Africa_WEB%20version.pdf

8.     https://www.defenceweb.co.za/aerospace/aerospace-aerospace/cameroon-air-force-z-9-damaged-in-crash-landing/

9.     https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/chinese-military-equipment-lack-quality-say-experts20191105142733/

Pic Courtesy - Joshua Rawson Harris at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are personal.)