Beijing’s Blunders: A country riddled with fake truths

“A relatively mild virus can cause a lot of damage if a lot of people get it.” These are the words of Michael Ryan, the director of WHO’s emergency programs, in regards with the corona virus. China has also realised the same and has mobilized vast resources in order to deal with it. It has put multiple measures to combat the crisis including the largest ever quarantine zone, restricting movement for more than 780 million people. However, these measures have been put in place more than a month after the first case was reported. Thus one would have no other choice but to then question the actions of the Chinese government in dealing with this crisis.

Riddled with corruption and distrust the local Chinese governments were bound to respond the way they did. In the past as well they have downplayed diseases in order to keep from political embarrassment. However, just as in the past, their acts have resulted in dangerous epidemics that almost spiralled out of control. In 2003, SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome) claimed 774 people before it could be contained. Today the death count has already exceeded 3000 and containment seems to be no-where in sight. On the 30th of December 2019, Doctor Li Wenliang had mentioned in a WhatsApp group, to his colleagues, a mysterious illness that had stricken seven patients at a hospital. This invited a response from his asking whether SARS was back. Along with the response from his colleagues it also invited a notice from officials from the health authority constituting the information he shared as illegal behaviour. Many other such people had at the time been cast-off as rumour mongers and were forced to retract statements. The 30th of December was not even the first case to be reported and cases had first emerged in early December. Yet, the government chose to act on the outbreak of the virus only on the 20th of Jan 2020 much after it had grown into a sizeable threat.

This kind of behaviour, however, predates even the SARS outbreak of 2003. With the take-over of Hong Kong in 1997, the Chinese government was also met with a crisis that they chose to ignore. The territory was hit by an outbreak of H5N1 virus or “bird flu” which spread to 18 people, resulting in the death of 6. At the time Hong Kong was reluctant to pinpoint China as the source for the outbreak even though 80% of its poultry came from the mainland. The Chinese government, all the while insisted that the problem was not them even though it was later proven to be so. The only reason the disease did not spread was due to the actions of the Hong Kong government itself. In ordering the slaughter of nearly 1.3 million chicken, ducks, pigeons and other birds, the government averted a crisis that could have been much worse.

The problem with the system and the multitude of times that China has hidden the truth about such circumstances lies in the fault of the government itself. “Highest-level infectious diseases” are classified as “highly secret” in a law promulgated in 1996 by the Ministry of health and the bureau for the protection of state secrets. It is thus clear that the Chinese government considers any disaster, whether natural or man-made to reflect badly on the party and local government and thus seeks to hide it. During the SARS outbreak of late 2002 and early 2003, low ranking officials feared being reprimanded or a demotion if they did not conceal the secret, and higher-ranking officials showed to be hesitant before revealing any facts. Both the Mayor of Beijing, Meng Xuenong and China’s minister of health, Zhang Wenkang among others assured the public of the SARS outbreak being under control while the truth was something quite different. For months the government did not reveal the seriousness of the problem to the public and continued to undercount or under-report cases.

This seems to be the case even today where there have been reports of individual incidents of the government tampering with the count. A few deaths over the past few weeks have been purposefully termed as normal pneumonia whereas there is cause to believe that they were caused by the corona virus. A certain family from Wuhan was in the same situation where they never even received a hospital bill after the death of their mother. While she showed most symptoms of having the corona virus she has not been counted on the official list. Events surrounding the actions of the hospitals and her death have thus given rise to suspicion in both the family and others. There have been other such cases surrounding the outbreak, making it almost certain that the Chinese government has been under counting the cases. Even though there are reports of the government dealing with this virus very differently and efficiently as compared to SARS, it would not be untrue to say that it has sought to downplay the seriousness of the situation.

In early 2013, another outbreak of bird flu struck China, resulting in around 50 deaths by the end of the year and a total of 281 by the end of 2017. Unsurprisingly, China handled this much the same as most of the other cases. On the 31st of March 2013, China notified the World Health Organization of three confirmed cases of the infection in Shanghai and Anhui. However, reports later suggested that the first cases of H7N9 surfaced in January, signalling that the Chinese government had once again attempted a cover-up. There were also reports of hospital officials not releasing the actual cause of death for multiple cases during the time. It is therefore clear that the Chinese officials have at every interval sought to manipulate information surrounding such diseases which could be the cause of either major public dissent or mass mobilization of resources.

The Government of China has sought to conceal a number of its blunders and has seemingly not learnt from the past. In neglecting such a serious disease it has allowed it to escalate to such a level that nearly 50 million people have had to be quarantined within China. After having faced multiple outbreaks over the past few years the government’s actions have shown no change in its handling of the same. From H5N1 in 1997 to the Corona virus today, the Chinese government seems to have very little regard for public health. Most of these epidemics highlighted above have sprouted due to a lack of proper regulation. While China has apparently transitioned into a market economy, it is yet to possess an effective regulatory system. Adulterated cases and the lack of proper regulation in food items sold has not only brought about these multiple virus outbreaks but also other problems that have been glossed over. China has for a long time had a problem with pollution control and has manipulated these facts on multiple occasions as well. In 2008 another problem arose, one which was directly related to China’s lack of regulation. Around 300 thousand babies got sick and few died because of contaminated milk.

It is thus clear that Chinese government officials have time and time again sought to hide the actual truth about such epidemics to save themselves from political embarrassment. This short-sightedness of the Chinese officials has had consequences of tremendous magnitude. Not only is China now facing public dissent but it is also seeing a massive withdrawal in operations of International companies and co-operations. In controlling the virus, China has shuttered most factories in the affected areas with instructions to open-up no earlier than mid-Feb. However, it is unlikely that the situation would have been brought under control by then as well and companies may remain shut longer. While the temporary closure of local factories has disrupted all supply chains in the region, the suspension of operations by global companies is likely to deal China a heavier blow. International businesses, including tech giants, automobile industries and airlines have announced the closure of stores, scaling back of operations and restrictions of travel to mainland China. 

Corona virus is slowly crippling both markets and production in China. Automobile plants across China were ordered to remain closed resulting in industries being forced to slash production by 15% in the first quarter. Hyundai, Toyota, Volkswagen, Daimler, Honda, etc., had thus all been prevented from carrying out operations in the world’s biggest car market. The automobile industry has shown to be the worst hit, however, others have suffered as well. Google had temporarily closed all of its offices in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, while others like Amazon, Microsoft and Apple Inc. have also taken such actions in protection of their staff. Along with these, companies like JP Morgan Chase, Ford Motor and Kraft Heinz have all introduced travel bans to and from China for their employees. These companies contribute greatly to the global market economy and have warned that the virus is bound to damage financial results. With most of these multi-national companies shuttering either half or all of their operations in China, the after-effects are bound to be devastating. Starbucks has closed about half of its 4300 stores in China and has projected a loss of around $25 million for every week that they remain shut.

The country is taking a massive hit against its economy due to this one virus and if not managed properly, it could result in irreparable damage. The current level of disruption is still stated to be manageable. However, if the number of corona virus cases does not decrease and China’s factories do not re-open soon, the economic damage will be catastrophic. This would not only be true for China but also the global economy. A severe pandemic, according to a report by the World Bank, could cause economic damage equalling nearly 5% of the global GDP. An economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has predicted that China’s annual growth could drop below an annualised 5% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with 6% in the previous quarter. The pressures of the US-China trade war had already led China's GDP to fall to 6%, the Wuhan Corona virus will have worse effects. The fact that the plunge in China’s stock markets has become a pressing concern where even government efforts to revive it have failed, shows the dire state of affairs that China is approaching. In fear of a mysterious “pneumonia like” disease, traders went into a massive selloff and the markets fell by about 8%. The People's Bank of China's injection of $173 billion had failed to bolster the economy and the fall in stock have continued.

The Governments lack of management in the early parts of this crisis have shown to have devastating repercussions for the country. The country is already facing economic fears and pressures on one hand. On the other, there has also been a spike in public dissent against the government. The silencing of a doctor has led to a widespread outcry and dissent against the Chinese government. This outcry was seen in the reported online revolt in China where people posted videos of the Les Misérables song, “Do You Hear the People Say?” along with invoking article No.35 of the Chinese constitution on the freedom of Speech. All of this took place on Weibo where there were also demands for an apology from the Wuhan government for Doctor Li Wenliang, who tried to warn of the virus that has since killed more than 800 people. After speculation of Dr Wenliang’s death began taking the app by force, China’s propaganda machine began an all-out censorship program deleting most of the posts.

Today, the questions posed to the government of China will prove to be highly consequential to its future. In addition to what has been highlighted above the public dissent against the government is on a consistent increase. Activists and other Chinese citizens have been revolting through online platforms and essays against the government. The government in response to this has done the only thing it has over the years been capable of doing, cracking down on dissent. Journalists and Legal rights activists have gone missing after being accused of “spreading rumours” about the Corona virus. It is thus funny how the government doesn’t realise the consequences of such actions which has only served to incite the public even more.

It is rare to find views so openly expressed against the government in China’s highly censored society. It would be an understatement to say that things seem to be changing drastically in the country. One should however, be cautious in predicting the future of China, owing to its ability over the past century to bring about dramatic turnarounds. However, today the country is more vulnerable than it was even 17 years ago during the SARS outbreak. With a higher debt, trade tensions, its steadily slowing growth and increasing public dissent, the situation is perhaps more susceptible to change.

There are therefore some serious questions that need to be addressed. Most of important of which is, why did the government not learn from its past mistakes and once again seek to keep the outbreak under wraps? Is there something more sinister about the whole situation or was it merely the fear of reprimand? The fact that the government refused external help thrice before accepting it perhaps points to the former but this proves to be mere speculation at the moment. Should the fact that many have termed it as a biological weapons experiment that backfired, be given any credence? However, these controversies more often than not remain but controversies. Nevertheless, one thing is certain, if the government does not deal with this outbreak efficiently, it will have devastating consequences. Along with the increasing public dissent it is also clear that the economy has and will be forced to endure massive damage. This brings us to another major question. Will the China we know of today withstand this epidemic? If the Chinese economy collapses, how much longer will it take for the political systems to suffer the same fate as well?

Zeus Hans Mendez is Research Analyst with Centre for Security Studies,JSIA, O.P. Jindal Global University