US – Maldives Defence Agreement and the China Factor

The Defence agreement between the United States and the tiny Indian Ocean islands of Maldives concluded a defence agreement on 10 September 2020. According to a U.S. Defence Department press release notes, the cooperation agreement signifies an "intent to deepen engagement and cooperation in support of maintaining peace and security in the Indian Ocean, and marks and important step forward in the defence partnership" (Defense, 2020).

Long before the framework agreement, USA had offered the Status of Force Agreement (SOFA) draft to the then President of Maldives, Mohammad Waheed Hassan Manik in 2012-13. Waheed was then replaced by Mohammed Nasheed, whose government agreed on the agreement. In a leaked draft of SOFA indicated that the agreement would allow US troops to carry personal weapons and exempt them from the local laws and courts of Maldivian territory. However, under the 'nationalistic' pressures, Maldives shelved SOFA and since nothing substantive emerged out of it, nothing more was said or heard.  Therefore, trying to establish defence relationship with Maldives has been in the list of the USA and this agreement in some way follows the footsteps of SOFA.

Through the collaborative effort under the framework, the defence ministries of both the nations will organise the discussions between the top defence and security officials of their respective countries, thus paving way for to the enhance the capacity of the Maldives Defence entities. This will enhance the cooperation in the domains of maritime security and counter terrorism. Both the countries have also agreed to cooperate on COVID-19 relief work and to provide humanitarian relief during the natural disasters. Mariya emphasised on the importance of the bilateral talks between both the nations and asserted the agreement is in the interest of both the countries. She further said that the agreement will help Maldives in the dealing with the issues of extremism, piracy, rise of drug and crime cartels who facilitate the illegal drug and arms trade.

This agreement aims to strengthen the peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region and counter the growing presence of China in the region. The Indo-Pacific region has emerged as the new playground for the international powers as it has gained prominence as the hub of global trade and energy supply. Most of the South Asian and Southeast Asian powers like China, India and even Japan are dependent on the maritime routes for their energy supply and hence the control over it for any nations, gives them great power.

China has invested heavily in Maldives under the Belt and Road Initiative and has undertaken and invested heavily in several infrastructural projects in Maldives. Over the years China and Maldives have signed an FTA and Maldives has gone to the extent of leasing one of its island, Feydhoo Finolhu, to a Chinese enterprise for 50 years at a price of a $4 million with plans to develop tourism. But so much investment in Maldives by China had, even then, raised alarms for the international community about whether the small island country will ever be able to repay the debt to China. It’s safe to say that Maldives too now has tasted the Debt Diplomacy of China.

The political crises in Maldives began when Abdulla Yameen, the then President of Maldives ordered the arrest of chief justice of the Supreme Court with a former President and imposed an internal emergency in the country. Maldives growing closeness to China also had a negative implication on India-Maldives ties. During the imposed emergency, many prominent scholars and analysts in India, had directly called for Indian military intervention there. While there is no evidence that China directly would have backed the Yameen's emergency rule, there were reports of 11 Chinese warships sailing into the eastern Indian Ocean. This was enough to signal India and the other interested powers in the Indian Ocean about the extent to which China would go to establish its clout. However, India-Maldives relationship has improved considerably under the President Ibrahim Mohammed Siloh.

It is not news, that under the Modi regime, India has become closer to the USA as they have the same interest – countering the rise of China in the Indian Ocean while increasing their respective prominence in the region. USA and India being allies can have a significant say in Indo-Pacific. They can together counter the rising prominence of China in the region and the defence agreement proves to one such way. Additionally, shows the other countries that there is an alternative to their financial crises other the entering into an agreement with China's who is famous for practising its Debt Diplomacy.

One of the strengths of this agreement is that USA consulted India while signing the agreement. India has embraced the networked Indo-Pacific architecture to counter the China's influence. At the same time, India also has realised the diminishing power of USA as the hegemon and hence has started investing its diplomatic power in the groupings like USA, Japan, India and Australia Quad or India-Australia-France trilateral. Some media reports claim that India has a hand in the signing of the agreement. If that is true, then it is a good strategy of New Delhi to get more allies on its side through a third party given that still many South Asian and Southeast Asian powers are wary of India’s role as a hegemon in the region.

While more neighbours are now realising the implications of the Chinese Debt Trap Diplomacy, they are gravitating towards the anti-China powers to seek help. In such a light, India is a lucrative South Asian power which can leverage its power against China. India's immediate neighbour, Sri Lanka has recently reiterated its continuing commitment to Colombo's India First Policy. Even Maldives, under the governance of the current President, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has solidified the bilateral relations. The levels of cooperation have increased between the two ministries and India has very generously extended economic aid to Maldives. In 2018, $1.4 billion assistance to Maldives and recently in August 2020, India further extended a development aid package worth $500 million, a direct cargo ferry service, creation of an air travel bubble, uninterrupted supply of essential commodities and additional financial aid of $250 million to help the cash-strapped economy.

But while India has welcomed the defence agreement, it has to consider the medium- and long-term implications of the possible over-crowding of the neighbourhood strategic space in the Indian Ocean with signing such defence pacts. Too many of such trade agreements will not be able to counter the rise of China. China has expanded its sphere of influence mostly by the use of economics (investments and lending). While India has been following the same trajectory, India is not as powerful as China economically. In this manner, India needs to avail the help of Trilateral or Quad members.

But signing a defence agreement with USA is one step in the direction of curbing China’s rise in the region. While one can only wait and see how this agreement of cooperation will pan out, nonetheless, there are immense opportunities for all the powers in the region who want to counter China’s rise, and this agreement is a stepping stone in that direction. India needs to play an active role as one of the largest Asian powers and use its influence in bringing in a series of policy decisions in the same trajectory like the US-Maldives defence cooperation.

Notes

Defense, U. D. (2020, September 20). U.S Department of Defense. The Maldives and U.S. Sign Defense Agreement. Philadelphia. Retrieved from https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2344512/the-maldives-and-us-sign-defense-agreement/

Pic Courtesy- Shifaaz Shamoon at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are personal.)