From Euro-Atlantic to Indo-Pacific: New Outlook of European Powers
In recent times, the Indo-Pacific has become the largest geo-strategic cum political hotspot of the world. In terms of Cartographic Schematics, Indo-Pacific broadly covers the area between the western coast of the US and the eastern shores of Africa. There are variations in this definition as different players alter it according to their own geographic positioning and geostrategic ambitions.The strategic significance of this region is the most important factor in the elevation of the region as a contested arena of different rivalries. This multipolar region has a population of almost 4.3 billion which accounts for more than half of the world population. More than half of the world’s GDP comes from here. The region has also emerged as a rich depository of various resources ranging from mineral resources to fisheries. The South China Sea alone accounts for around ten per cent of the world’s stock of fisheries. Along with that, this region is also rich in oil and gas. As per China’s Ministry of Land and Resources, the South China Sea holds approximately 30 billionn tonnes of oil reserves and around 16 trillion cubic metres of reserves of hydrocarbon and natural gas.
As per a report published by Asian Development Bank, more than sixty per cent of the world’s GDP is generated by the Indo-Pacific region alone. Annually, around 32.2 Mn barrels of crude oil passes through the region and the region contributes around 40 per cent of the total global exports. A large number of the world’s most important chokepoints are present in this region. The list includes the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, the Mozambique Channel, the Lombok Strait, the Suez Canal, Bab-el-Mandab, the Cape of Good Hope, the Suez Canal. The Strait of Malacca is one of the most important choke points of the region as it connects the Indian Ocean with the Pacific Ocean. An alternate route via the Lombok Strait also exists but it adds an additional 1000 nautical miles to the journey. It is evident that the region is blessed with natural resources with an additional benefit of human resource. This unique blend along with the forces of globalisation have turned this region into the engine of the world economy.
Almost all the major powers have either crafted or are in the process of crafting their respective Indo-Pacific strategies in order to boost the trade ties with the littoral states and to ensure a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region. The process has been paced up majorly due to the two factors. Firstly, the growing foot-prints of Beijing in the region have alarmed the major power centres across the world. China’s advances have taken different turns in the form of continued conflicts and territorial disputes with the ASEAN countries in the South-China Sea, the String of Pearls strategy in the Indian Ocean to counter India’s maritime strategies and to maintain a presence in the Indian Ocean and the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative in a bid to interconnect the geopolitical space. With China’s rise, the USA has lost its charm in the region. Although the US is still a net security provider in the region with the most powerful naval force of the world, some instances and actions of Washington have left its allies into a dilemma regarding the efficiency of such an arrangement. China’s rise has initiated a trade war between Washington and Beijing and the arena for that is Indo-Pacific. This, along with the COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected the world economy. However, it seems as if this trade war is gradually taking the form of a Cold War 2.0 because the events are spiralling out from the domain of trade and moving towards other arenas like scientific and technological advancements, weapons of mass destruction and arms race. The US is putting pressure on its allies to take sides in the trade war. This is quite evident from the stances of the NATO countries towards 5G technology offering of Chinese tech giant, Huawei. Other contemporary threats in the region like organised crimes, climate-change, terrorist organisations and piracy pose a threat to maritime-security and free flow of trade. Besides that, North Korea with its strategic arsenal of nuclear weapons presents a threat to already volatile peace and stability of the region. All these developments have enabled different major powers of the world to draft their respective strategies in order to engage with the region in an effective way and to play a bigger role in the geopolitical power tussle of the region in order to ensure the security of their trade and resources.
In 2014, India transformed its ‘Look East Policy’ into ‘Act East Policy’. In 2015, the US presented ‘A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Sea power’ which was a maritime strategy for the Indo-Pacific. In 2016, South Korea came out with ‘New Southern Policy’ with a detailed focus on Indo-Pacific. In 2017, the US again endorsed the concept in its National Security Strategy. In 2018, India and Japan jointly presented the India-Japan Vision Statement. In 2019, the ASEAN and India presented their Indo-Pacific visions in the form of ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific and the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative respectively. France had already come out with its own vision of Indo-Pacific in 2019 and views itself as an Indian Ocean nation. Germany is the newest member to join the bandwagon. Other countries like South Africa, the UK, Canada and Sri Lanka are expected to come up with their own Indo-Pacific Strategy.
Germany’s Indo-Pacific Strategy
On 1st September 2020, Germany released a document titled ‘Germany-Europe-Asia: Shaping The 21st Century Together’ in which it laid out its Indo-Pacific Strategy. After this, Germany became the 8th country of the world and the 2nd European Union country to release a regional Indo-Pacific Strategy. It is important to note here that Germany does not have any territory in the Indo-Pacific region. As per the paper, Germany’s areas of interest in the region are Peace and Security, Deepening relations with Indo-Pacific Countries, Vision of multipolarity, Open shipping routes and markets and free trade, Digital Connectivity and Environment Protection.
Germany has put emphasis on strengthening multilateralism in the region. It plans to do so by expanding the cooperation with almost all the multilateral organisations and platforms of the region namely, ASEAN, BIMSTEC, IORA, Asia-Europe Meeting etc. It has also talked of engaging with IMF, World Bank, WTO and WHO for sustainably developing the region and to ensure a well-placed structure for the prevention and management of pandemic. It proposes to promote the Alliance for Multilateralism in the Indo-Pacific, which is a joint initiative of Germany and France. It seeks greater engagement between the EU and ASEAN.
The document talks about the risk of climate change in the region, especially for the island countries which face an existential risk from the sea-level rise. The document has reflected a cooperative stance from German side towards the environment issues like reduction in emissions by cooperating with China and India, expanding support to the Pacific island states, renewable energy adoption, marine pollution, deforestation and protection of wild-life.
The document also focuses on strengthening peace, security and stability. Germany will do so by strengthening the principles of UNCLOS and expanding security and defence cooperation with the Indo-Pacific nations. It also talks about Germany’s plan to accede to the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP). It envisages a legally binding Code of Conduct between ASEAN and China to solve the disputes in the South China Sea. It calls upon the NATO nations to deepen the security relations with the partners like South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Germany has also enlisted its plans to tackle terrorism, manage arms control and cyber-security arrangements.
Some other areas have also been talked about like promotion of human rights; ensuring rule of law; free, fair and sustainable free trade; transforming regions and markets in a digital way etc.
After the analysis of the document, it appears that the German strategy in the Indo-Pacific is based largely upon trade-specific domains rather than adopting an assertive and confrontational stance towards China, as there were speculations among some analysts and experts of the domain. Germany places its bet on a ‘rule-based code of conduct’ between China and ASEAN countries to resolve the conflicts and ensure peace and stability in the South China Sea. Moreover, the German strategy doesn’t talk about Hong Kong and Taiwan. On one hand, it talks about securing human rights in the region and on the other hand Uighurs did not find even a single mention in the document. It, for sure, talks about ‘authoritarian actors and states’ but does not name them. This soft stance towards China can be attributed to the trade relations between the two countries. Beijing happens to be Berlin’s largest trading partner. Germany accounts for more than half of the total European Union’s exports to China. China’s importance as German’s trading partner can be understood from the fact that almost half of Volkswagen’s revenue comes from the sales in China. In this case, Berlin’s soft stance towards China is similar to South Korea’s ‘New Southern Policy’ which was laid out in 2016. Seoul tried to decrease its dependence on China with the help of American initiatives in the region. South Korea has since then diversified its trade relations with the Indo-Pacific states and has deepened the existing ones. Similarly, ‘diversification of the relationships’ finds a centre stage in the German strategy.
France’s Indo-Pacific Strategy
France came out with its Indo-Pacific strategy in 2019. It presented two documents. One was the French Defence Policy named “France and the Security in the Indo-Pacific”. French Foreign Ministry presented a companion document to this which was named “French Strategy in the Indo-Pacific: For an Inclusive Indo-Pacific”.
Paris views itself as an Indo-Pacific nation. It has territory in both the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. France’s territories in the Southern Indian Ocean includes the Scattered Islands, Mayotte and La Réunion, and the French Antarctic and Southern Territories. In the Pacific Ocean also, France has a territorial presence with French Polynesia, New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, and Clipperton Island. France boasts the largest Exclusive Economic Zone in the world and 93 per cent of this territory, which equates around 9 million km², lies in the Indo-Pacific. The region is home to around 1.6 Mn French citizens. Paris also has a significant military presence with around 8000 troops stationed here. France’s renewed interest in the region is mainly due to increasing assertiveness of China which is being viewed as a direct threat to multilateralism. Through this, France seeks to establish deeper strategic and arms partnership in order to protect its territorial interest and rules-based order in the region. It also envisages working on other threats which the region faces like piracy, terrorism, free and fair trade, climate change. French strategy clearly diverts from the US strategy by not following a confrontational approach against China. Instead, it is in accordance with the ASEAN policy which avoids any assertiveness against China.
In its defence policy, Paris talks about the major security issues in the Indo-Pacific and divides it into three major parts, namely terrorism, the threat to multilateralism and the climate-change. The major focus is laid upon the threat posed by terrorism in the form of civil war, instability and chaos and fragility of some states in Levant and Africa. It talks about the security risks due to instability in the South-China Sea which is gradually budding as a new conflict zone of the 21st century. Militarisation and territorial reclamation activities in the region pose a threat to the multilateral world order. Along with that, it mentions the nuclear and ballistic missile programme of the North Korean regime which is a direct threat to world peace and non-proliferation. It seeks to enhance its cooperation in the defence and security domain with the regional stakeholders like India, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia. France laid down its strategy to promote dialogue with the different multilateral organisation of the region like ASEAN, BIMSTEC, UN etc in order to halt the progress of the events towards a bi-polar world and to ensure maritime freedom and security and to uphold the values of rules-based world order. It has identified the major threats in the Indo-Pacific region and enlists them under different countries like border disputes between India, Pakistan and China; Nuclear threat in the Korean Peninsula and presence of terrorist organisations in Pakistan-Afghanistan region. Paris is engaged in a large number of multilateral and bilateral military exercises in the region in order to enhance cooperation with regional stakeholders. The document quotes:
“France organizes regular multilateral exercises in the Indian Ocean (Papangue) and in the Pacific (Equateur, Croix du Sud, Marara). These exercises can gather up to several thousand military personnel coming from a dozen partner States. France participates to many multilateral military exercises in Southeast Asia (Cobra Gold, Komodo, Pitch Black, Tempest Express, Coores, Marixs), in Northeast Asia (Khaan Quest, Ulchi Freedom Guardian, Key Resolve) and in the Pacific (Rimpac, Southern Katipo, Tafakula, Americal, Kakadu, Pacific Partnership). These exercises aim to increase mutual understanding and to create bonds between the different armed forces. Many bilateral exercises are also organised at each French Navy and Air Force assets visits in the region. The regular high-level bilateral exercises Shakti (Army), Varuna (Navy) and Garuda (Air Force) embody the strategic partnership bonding France and India.”
France raises its concerns regarding the threat posed by environmental and climate-change events to international security and stability. It adopts a two-pronged approach towards these events and considers them to be natural calamities with military implications. It stresses upon the fact that these events have the potential to change the status quo by displacing population, redrawing boundaries and creating new tensions and conflicts. It emphasises its resolve to take the necessary steps towards sustainable development, disaster mitigation and strategically linking the domains of defence and environment.
The document also raises the concern about the lack of proper regulations in the spatial field and cyber-space and threat to established regulations in the domain of polar regions, maritime space and air domain and calls for the restrengthening of multilateral rules-based order through dialogues at different levels.
In a separate document released by the French Ministry of External Affairs, it tries to define its Indo-Pacific strategy through non-military perspective. It mentions all the issues and threats in the Indo-Pacific region and talks about the role of Paris as inclusive, mediating and stabilising power. It again stresses upon the idea of cooperating with the regional stakeholders who share common values with France like India, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan and Indonesia. It focusses on the importance of China as a major stakeholder of the region and seeks to work closely with it. It emphasises on the role of EU for that matter. As per the document, ASEAN plays a central role in stabilising the power dynamics of the multipolar Asian region.
How other powers are playing in the region?
The UK has not entered into the arena formally but there are speculations among the experts that it will soon join the league. The Brexit proved to be a reason for this delay from the UK’s side. Due to the Brexit, the UK has lost its Dialogue Partnership with ASEAN. Various FTAs with the Indo-Pacific countries are still under negotiations. So, it is going to be difficult for the UK to promote values like democracy, human rights and rules-based order without EU. But the UK’s already established Commonwealth Network can prove useful for it to move forward with its own doctrine for Indo-Pacific.
There are reports that Canada is also working on an Indo-Pacific Strategy quietly, especially after the deterioration of relation with China.
Japan, South Korea, the ASEAN countries, India and the US have already come out with their respective blueprint to engage with the region in a much more effective way.
India’s stakes
India has all the reasons to engage with the region in a more robust way. India is the regional security provider in the Indo-Pacific and is facing the brunt of the increasing assertiveness of China whether in the form of border disputes with the red dragon or its string of pearls strategy in the Indian Ocean Region. India perceives it as a direct threat to its sovereignty and also to the values of open oceans and maritime freedom. India is moving forward with a multi-pronged strategy in the region. It has launched several initiatives like SAGAR and IORA to exploit its cultural linkages with the regional countries and to create a multilateral platform to ensure rules-based order in the region. The Act East policy of India is directed towards the ASEAN nations. This has helped India to engage with the ASEAN nations in a more effective way. India is trying to counter China’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy through its ’Necklace of Diamonds’. It includes Duqm port in Oman, the Assumption Islands in Seychelles, Changi Naval Base in Singapore, Sabang Port in Indonesia and Chabahar Port in Iran. India is also a part of the Quad grouping along with the US, Japan and Australia and seeks to maintain the peace and stability in the region. Along with Japan, India is working towards the Asia Africa Growth Corridor which it sees as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. With the growing participation of NATO countries in the region, India is getting a plethora of opportunities to engage with the like-minded powers through well-articulated diplomacy to secure its interests in the region.
*Special thanks to Dr Pankaj Jha for his valuable guidance.
Notes
1. https://asiapacific.unfpa.org/en/node/15207#:~:text=The%20Asia%20and%20the%20Pacific,populous%20countries%2C%20China%20and%20India.
2. https://www.prb.org/2020-world-population-data-sheet/#:~:text=The%20world%20population%20is%20projected,as%20in%20the%20United%20States.
3. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/521981/ki2019.pdf
4. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/et-commentary/navigating-indo-pacific-in-an-uncertain-world/
5. http://www.sirjournal.org/research/2019/7/1/indias-maritime-wall-in-the-indo-pacific-region#:~:text=Indonesia%20is%20located%20between%20the,Strait%2C%20and%20the%20Sunda%20Strait.
6. https://www.nber.org/papers/w4465#:~:text=Richard%20Baldwin&text=This%20paper%20proposes%20a%20very,multiplied%20by%20a%20domino%20effect.&text=The%20domino%20effect%20is%20simple,governments'%20stances%20on%20regional%20liberalization.
7. https://www.nber.org/papers/w4465.pdf
8. https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/blob/2380514/f9784f7e3b3fa1bd7c5446d274a4169e/200901-indo-pazifik-leitlinien--1--data.pdf
9. https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/country-files/asia-and-oceania/the-indo-pacific-region-a-priority-for-france/#:~:text=In%20an%20international%20context%20marked,the%20heart%20of%20this%20strategy.
10. https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/australia-and-indo-pacific-region-search-strategy-or-strategy-search-region-20694
11. https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/germanys-indo-pacific-vision-a-new-reckoning-with-china-or-more-strategic-drift/
12. http://www.cescube.com/vp-decoding-germany-s-indo-pacific-policy
13. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2019/12/12/frances-indo-pacific-strategy-inclusive-and-principled/
14. https://rusi.org/commentary/re-examining-uk%E2%80%99s-priorities-asia-pacific-region
15. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/09/03/as-relations-with-beijing-sour-canada-works-on-an-indo-pacific-strategy-but-no-one-will-talk-about-it.html
16. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/eye-on-china-canada-formulates-new-indo-pacific-policy/story-r84Wr4uqJcBN5QM2StDBxK.html
17. https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/string-of-pearls-vs-necklace-of-diamonds/
18. https://www.jagranjosh.com/general-knowledge/necklace-of-diamond-strategy-1592404137-1
19. https://thediplomat.com/2018/07/india-makes-moves-at-indonesias-strategic-sabang-port/
20. http://www.cpahq.org/cpahq/cpadocs/UKNDA%20EEZ%20and%20Territorial%20Seas.pdf
Pic Courtsey – Calvin Hanson at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are personal.)
