Tahrek E Taliban Pakistan:Is it gaining ground?

The TTP repeatedly targeted civilian and military targets in the country and carried out many deadly attacks on the security forces and the general public. One of its most infamous attacks is a gun-and-bomb attack on a school in the northwestern city of Peshawar, the attack resulted in the killing of 140 people including 132 children. It is also infamous for trying to assassinate Malala Yousafzai, the youngster who went on to win the Nobel Prize for her efforts in advocating for girls' education. The TTP has killed thousands of military personnel and civilians in bombings and suicide assaults over the years.

And according to a terrorism monitor published by the Jamestown Foundation, the organization aims to do the following.

·        To establish shariah law in Pakistan,

·        to support the Afghan Taliban’s control in Kabul after the U.S. withdrawal of forces

·        to conduct defensive jihad against Pakistani security forces,

·        to overthrow the Pakistani government

·        establish an Islamic caliphate in Pakistan (Yusufzai, 2009) (Center, n.d.)

After processing the above information, we now have an understanding of the TTP, how is it formed and what are its aims and how it operates.

Now we are going to look into the ceasefire agreement between the Pakistan government and the TTP, as dialogue is one of the most non-violent means of political struggle, the reconciliation process of the dialogue and the motives behind it are the real questions here, until and unless the TTP releases its motives behind the process, we cannot quantify the decisions of TTP. To connect the process of the ceasefire that was followed by talks to the non-violent political action we need to look into methods of non-violence and see if these activities can satisfy beyond a reasonable doubt to be categorized as a non-violent method.

Gene Sharp observes that “Persons sharing the "active reconciliation" beliefs often prefer a rather quietist approach to social problems, disliking anything akin to "agitation" or "trouble." Some of them may thus oppose non-violent resistance and direct action (including strikes, boycotts, etc.) and even outspoken verbal statements, believing such methods to be violent in spirit, perhaps even immoral and harmful in the effects on the opponent. They would prefer much quieter methods, such as personal representations, letters, and private deputations.” (Sharp, 1959) As the second ceasefire agreement is going on we are not sure if we can quantify this as “active reconciliation”, but any dialogue can be considered as reconciliation as two parties are sitting down to work on the differences.

But are they reconciling or there is any other reason for the ceasefires and talks? We will try to answer this question as well regarding the TTP in this essay.

Previous Ceasefire Agreement:

According to Pakistan’s government, the ceasefire was unilaterally scrapped by the TTP, The government described the demands of TTP as ‘unreasonable’.The first ceasefire between the TTP and the government of Pakistan was in 2021 November, Pakistan has addressed the Afghan Taliban leadership with a list of demands, including action against the TTP, when the organisation seized control in August. Instead, the Afghan Taliban offered their good offices to mediate a peace settlement with the TTP. Pakistan accepted the offer, and a ceasefire agreement was struck in November following several face-to-face negotiations between the two sides.

The TTP proclaimed the end to the month-long truce negotiated with the Pakistan government with the help of the Afghan Taliban, accusing the government of violating provisions such as prisoner release and the creation of negotiation committees. “TTP leadership was promised that over 100 prisoners linked to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan will be released at the very start of the ceasefire agreement, but it never happened,” said TTP. (Kagrana, 2021)

Their statements also read "Now let the Pakistani people decide whether it is the TTP or the Pakistani army and establishment that is not abiding by the agreements?" and "In these circumstances, it is not possible to advance the ceasefire," TTP said that Pakistani security forces violated the truce by executing raids and arrests of TTP members in Lakki Marwat, Swat, Bajaur, Dir, and Swabi. (Kaura, 2022)

‘Part of a war strategy’

The Pakistan authorities described the activities of the TTP as part of their war strategy, and understanding this allegation will help us why TTP did what it did. And looking at this will answer the question of, How legitimate can the peace talks of a violent organization be?

The Pakistan authorities said that “All these settlements will not make for the end of the TTP in this region,” “They still have ambitions, and they think that this ceasefire and the talks are part of a war strategy. According to them, this is not the end of the war, but is a part of the war.” (Business Standard, 2022). The Pakistan administration viewed it from a perspective where the TTP is using this non-violent method of peace talks to advance their motives which they promoted through violent means as well. This argument will become more clear as we approach the current activities as part of their peace talks.

The TTP increased its activities in Pakistan, especially in the border region of Afghanistan, “The TTP has used the border region as a haven, against which the Afghan Taliban regime has refused to take concrete action despite Pakistan’s repeated requests. The Taliban’s inability to establish a monopoly on the legitimate use of force may also be luring TTP fighters to Afghan soil.” (Kaura, 2022) the Pakistan airforce even conducted an airstrike in Kunar and Khost provinces in eastern Afghanistan, one of those regions where the TTP is reportedly active, At least 45 individuals were killed, including 20 children. The military operation, though not acknowledged by officials in Islamabad, is thought to be in reprisal for the deaths of seven Pakistani troops in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province of North Waziristan, near the Afghan border. The executions were carried out by militants operating out of eastern Afghanistan. The terrorists responsible for the killings are thought to be members of the (TTP) or the Pakistani Taliban.

and the Afghan Taliban reportedly said that only civilians got killed in the airstrike and condemned the airstrike. The spokesperson of the Afghan Taliban issued the below statements regarding the attack “We want to tell the Pakistani army that every war has a principle and Pakistan has violated every principle of war up to date,” and “We challenge the Pakistan army to fight us on the battlefield instead of bombing oppressed people and refugee camps.”

the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) detonated a military vehicle near Drabin police station in the Dera Ismail Khan area, injuring two troops and destroying the vehicle. TTP also attacked and killed a policeman in the Gandapur district of DI Khan in December, the 21st incident since the ceasefire agreement's conclusion. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) even detained a police officer while he was on duty in Peshawar's Nothia district. The surge in the attacks shows that the TTP was not pleased by the government decisions,

Ongoing ceasefire:

The ongoing ceasefire is being mediated by the Afghanistan Taliban Pakistan as part of the agreement some media sources publish that, two top commanders of the TTP were handed over to the Afghan Taliban. Muslim Khan and Mehmood Khan were recently moved from a military jail facility to the Afghan Taliban's custody in Pakistan's northwestern tribal zone. This came after May 9, when a group of top Pakistani military officials arrived in Kabul for discussions with TTP leadership. According to a decree issued by the TTP leadership and reviewed by RFE/RL, the TTP agreed to a temporary cease-fire from May 10 to 15. The terrorist group had declared a unilateral cease-fire from April 29 to May 9 to commemorate the conclusion of Ramadan and the commencement of the Eid holiday. the two leaders would be released from the hands of the Afghan Taliban after the TTP agrees to a lasting cease-fire with Islamabad. (Business Standard, 2022)

The TTP has called for the release of 102 commanders and fighters imprisoned in Pakistan. Pakistan has released the majority of TTP detainees but had been hesitant to release Muslim Khan and Mehmood Khan. The TTP has also demanded that Islamic Sharia law be implemented throughout Pakistan's tribal region, a demand many observers believe the government would refuse. A violent radical group like TTP bending the state’s will and getting the prisoners released,  the prisoners who were arrested with harsh charges show Pakistan's inability to produce security in its state and provide justice to the victims of those prisoners.

The legitimacy of the prisoner transfer is being questioned as there was parliament agreement on the matter but that is a discussion for another separate topic. The TTP was not in the process of active reconciliation but it was in the process of threatening and weakening the government with a spree of violence and coming back to the tables to force the hand of the government without making any compromises.  This shows the inability of Pakistan to provide domestic security to its citizens. This move will reflect in the International arena as a failure on the side of the Pakistan government. Taliban are unlikely to act on the requests of Pakistan concerning the TTP, as the Taliban is also becoming less and less dependent on Pakistan the strength of Pakistan in the region will further decrease. Pakistan didn’t receive anything substantial from the negotiations and the only party which got its wishes fulfilled is TTP.

Notes

Business Standard. (2022, May 13). Islamabad hands over top Pakistani Taliban commanders to Afghan mediators. Business Standard. Retrieved May 24, 2022, from https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/islamabad-hands-over-two-top-commanders-of-ttp-to-afghan-taliban-122051300015_1.html

Business Standard. (2022, May 13). Islamabad hands over top Pakistani Taliban commanders to Afghan mediators. Business Standard. Retrieved from https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/islamabad-hands-over-two-top-commanders-of-ttp-to-afghan-taliban-122051300015_1.html

Center, N. C. (n.d.). Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP). (N. C. Center, Producer) Retrieved 2022, from TERRORIST GROUPS: https://www.dni.gov/nctc/groups/ttp.html

Kagrana, B. (2021, Dec 15). Pakistan: TTP Announces End Of Ceasifire Week After Signing Agreement; Leads Fresh Attacks. Republic World. Retrieved from https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/pakistan-news/pakistan-ttp-announces-end-of-ceasifire-week-after-signing-agreement-leads-fresh-attacks.html

Kaura, V. (2022, May 09). Pushed over the edge: Political and military dynamics at the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Retrieved May 2022, from https://www.mei.edu/publications/pushed-over-edge-political-and-military-dynamics-afghanistan-pakistan-border

Yusufzai, R. (2009, March 03). A Who’s Who of the Insurgency in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province: Part Two – FATA excluding North and South Waziristan. Terrorism Monitor, 7(4). Retrieved 2022, from https://jamestown.org/program/a-whos-who-of-the-insurgency-in-pakistans-north-west-frontier-province-part-two-fata-excluding-north-and-south-waziristan/

Pic Courtsey-Ali Muhammad at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are thsoe fo teh author and do nto represent views of ESCUBE.)