Discourse related to China’s impending attack on Taiwan

Later, in early June, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe stated that any foreign meddling in Taiwan is bound to fail and that China will oppose that country at all costs when addressing the Sangri-La Dialogue security meeting. In consistent with this statement, China also launched its second-largest intrusion into Taiwan's air defence zone of the year, as Taipei outright signalled a desire to strengthen security relations with the US. The statements by the White House have shown inclination towards Taiwan while it has also has led to more aggressive behaviour by China. China's recent unspoken support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine has only initiated a debate about Beijing's intentions with Taiwan, heightening concerns about how the world would respond if China launched an attack on the island nation.

HISTORY-

Taiwan is a small island that is 100 miles off the coast of southeast China. It is part of the so-called "first island chain," which contains a number of US-friendly islands essential to US foreign policy. After World War II, there was political rift in mainland China between the nationalist government troops and the Chinese Communist Party, resulting in a split between the two. In 1949, the communists prevailed, and Mao Zedong, their leader, assumed control of Beijing. Meanwhile, the Kuomintang, a nationalist party, has fled to Taiwan. Since then, the Kuomintang has been one of Taiwan's most powerful political parties, controlling the island for much of its history. This has led to the conflict that still prevails.

Beijing has always claimed that there is only "One China," and Taiwan is a part of Chinese mainland. It advocates the "One-China idea," according to which the People's Republic of China is the only legitimate government in China, and it wants Taiwan to be unified with the mainland in the future. China has also been opposing Taiwan's membership in the UN bodies and other international organisations proposing the argument that Taiwan is not a legitimate state. Over time, a growing number of states have transferred diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, leaving Taiwan with only 15 diplomatic allies by 2021. After Tsai Ing-wen of the historically pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won a resounding victory in the 2016 presidential election in Taiwan, relations between the two countries rapidly deteriorated as a result of voter concerns that Taiwan was becoming overly close to Beijing under the KMT administration. [1] China has also become more autocratic at home and forceful in its foreign policy under President Xi Jinping. Many people in Taiwan are even more enraged by Beijing's ruthless suppression of democracy and liberties in Hong Kong because they worry that if they were subject to Beijing's power, they might suffer the same fate.

US AND TAIWAN-

The primary purpose of the United States is to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and it has urged both Beijing and Taipei to do so. For decades, the US has tried to strike a careful balance between backing Taiwan and avoiding a confrontation with China through its policy of strategic ambiguity. On the other hand, President Joe Biden appears to be against the strategy, indicating multiple times that the US would defend Taiwan if ever China invaded the country.

The United States strategy for China-Taiwan issue is regulated by its One-China policy. It is based on various documents, including three US-China communiqués issued in 1972, 1978, and 1982; the Taiwan Relations Act, approved by the US Congress in 1979; and President Ronald Reagan's recently disclosed "Six Assurances" to Taiwan in 1982. The United States' position has changed and developed through the new administrations. For example, over Chinese concerns, President Donald Trump strengthened ties with Taiwan, providing more than $18 billion in armaments to the military and presenting a $250 million facility for its de facto embassy in Taipei. The Biden administration has followed in similar footsteps. President Biden was the first to invite Taiwanese representatives to the Presidential inauguration.

Taiwan is the world's leading contract producer of semiconductor chips, which may be found in almost any electronic device, including cellphones, computers, cars, and even artificial intelligence-based weapons systems. In 2020, Taiwanese companies accounted for more than 60% of the revenue earned by global semiconductor contract makers. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world's largest contract chip manufacturer and Apple's and other American firms' top suppliers. [2] The United States' reliance on Taiwanese chips might be one of the factors driving its determination to defend Taiwan against any Chinese invasion.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS BETWEEN TAIWAN AND CHINA-

The PLA stated in a military white paper that was released in 2019 that it will "resolutely defeat anybody seeking to split Taiwan from China." Taiwanese parliament approved President Tsai Ing-Wen's plan to increase defence spending by $8.6 billion over the next five years in 2022. To defend Taiwan's shores, a portion of the increased military budget will be used to purchase cruise missiles, marine mines, and advanced monitoring equipment.[3] However, it is apparent that Taiwan cannot match Chinese firepower. China's goal is to wear Taiwan down to the point that the island's inhabitants believe unification with the mainland is their best alternative. To this goal, China has boosted the number and size of PLA bombers, fighter fighters, and observation aircraft patrolling the skies above and surrounding Taiwan. In a show of power, it has increasingly sailed its warships and aircraft carriers through the Taiwan Strait.

Since 2018, four Chinese organisations were accused by Taipei of hacking into at least 10 Taiwanese government institutions and 6,000 official email accounts in an attempt to get access to government data and personal information. [4] Beijing has also employed nonmilitary means to exert pressure on Taiwan. China shut off a cross-strait communication system with Taiwan's primary liaison office in 2016. China has also put pressure on international businesses, including airlines and hotel chains, to classify Taiwan as a Chinese province. Furthermore, China has threatened nations with relations with Taiwan: in 2021, China suspended trade with Lithuania in exchange for opening a Taiwanese representative office in the Lithuanian capital.

Taiwan's economy is still based on trade with China, the island's most important commercial partner. However, their economic relationship has been strained in recent years, partially as a result of Beijing's pressure on Taiwan and Taiwanese leaders' rising concerns about the island's over-dependence on Chinese commerce. Taiwan's exports to China reached an all-time high in 2021. Beijing has exerted pressure on other nations to refrain from signing free trade deals with Taiwan. Only a few nations have signed free trade agreements with the island, with New Zealand and Singapore being the only industrialised economies to do so. Beijing has also promoted Taiwan's exclusion from international commercial blocs.

CHINA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA-

China's sweeping claims to the South China Sea, through which billions of dollars in yearly shipping commerce flow, have inflamed tensions with competing claimants in the same region. This includes Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. China has also been accused of flying planes and sailing boats dangerously near rival claimants' beaches in the South and East China Seas and intercepting patrol planes in international airspace. South Korea has started strengthening its defence capabilities and collaborating with the United States in response to China's threat. Meanwhile, Japan has warned against China's attempts to alter the status quo in the South and East China Seas, saying that the peace and security of the Taiwan Strait are essential not just to Japan but also to the rest of the world. In the meantime, China continues to build military and industrial outposts on artificial islands it has constructed in disputed waters. [5]

WHAT IF CHINA INVADES TAIWAN?

Considering the Russia-Ukraine war, a lot is being said about China's intention to invade Taiwan. Though China has a highly sophisticated military arsenal, a direct invasion by the country would undoubtedly result in significant and even catastrophic deaths for all parties involved. This will also cause a regional or even worldwide economic and trade disaster. Under a best-case scenario for China, it would face the loss of billions of dollars, and the effects of an invasion would last for decades, burdening the Chinese government with health care costs and pension obligations. This will be worse at a time when Chinese veterans are already protesting about unpaid pensions, and the mainland is facing terrible consequences of the 'One-child policy'.

Moreover, China would face a lot of backlash from international organisations and non-state actors. Such a hegemonic act might result in consequences that Russia is facing at the moment. In such circumstances, China can use coercion, blockades, trade manipulations, and intimidation on regional and international platforms. 

However, China cannot afford to lose Taiwan because doing so would endanger China's place as a superpower in the great power war of the 21st century and effectively prevent China from extending her sphere of influence in the Asia-Pacific. It would also mean China has bowed down in front of Taiwan and, most importantly, to the US. The US will quickly create military bases and a naval presence in Taiwan if China grants Taiwan its desired independence. The security of China would be in peril under such circumstances. Such a situation would impact its influence on other nations and islands in the Asia-Pacific. 

If China invades Taiwan without any US intervention, then China would become the most dominant power in Asia overnight. China would not only control Taiwan, but it would easily invade or control other regions that it claims in the Asia-Pacific and then it would be nearly impossible to stop China. 

The period of US supremacy in the area should end with a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The United States will significantly damage its reputation and influence if it fails to support its democratic partners when challenged by an authoritarian foe. The superpower position of the United States and the assurances of wealth, freedom, and human rights that have gone along with it will disappear as a result. If China invades Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific will enter a protracted, wide-ranging conflict that may involve direct strikes on the United States, including Hawaii and even the entire country.

CONCLUSION-

There is a high chance that the other regional nations in the South China Sea would also bandwagon against China if an invasion takes place, and that would also allow the United States to take a more explicit stand which, as per the current government, would be in support of Taiwan. Most analysts, international entities and countries with some vested interests are encouraging a peaceful resolution between the Chinese Mainland and Taiwan. However, Beijing might get motivated for any immediate action if it thought waiting would only buy Taiwan more time to gather allies and resources. Australia has hinted toward supporting Taiwan and joining the alliance with the US and Japan. China's immediate neighbours are also passively supporting Taiwan as they fear they might face the same consequences if China invades Taiwan. With an increased resistance against China and its expansionist attitude, it remains to be seen what China will do next? 

REFERENCES-

1.       CNN, Jessie Yeung, Nectar Gan and Steven Jiang. n.d. “What You Need to Know about China-Taiwan Tensions.” CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/24/china/china-taiwan-conflict-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html

2.      Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden

3.      Yeo, Mike. 2021. “Taiwan Is Spending an Extra $9B on Its Defense. Here’s What the Money Will Buy.” Defense News. https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/10/07/taiwan-is-spending-an-extra-9b-on-its-defense-heres-what-the-money-will-buy/

4.     Anon. n.d.-c. “How Taiwan Is Trying to Defend against a Cyber ‘World War III’ - CNN.” https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/23/tech/taiwan-china-cybersecurity-intl-hnk/index.html 

5.     Anon. n.d.-a. “China Vows to ‘Fight to the End’ to Prevent Taiwan’s Independence.” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/12/china-warns-us-it-will-fight-to-the-end-for-taiwan

Pic Courtsey-Lin Jhih Han at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)