Russia in the Arctic-New Developments & Strategy
Russia is experiencing melting ice caps in the Arctic region faster than the predicted rate and it will dramatically change its geography in the coming years. It has for centuries enjoyed protection due to its extremely cold weather in the north, but considering the effects of climate change, it could be left vulnerable on its northern frontier. We could say with certainty that deployments of weapons are a reaction to the changing geopolitical situation in the Arctic Circle.
The Russian response has been to reconstruct old bases inherited from the golden Soviet era along with military expansion in the region. President Putin sees deployment in the Arctic as “an absolute necessary element of building and maintaining the country’s defenses”.
Military buildup in Arctic
Russia has been building military bases and testing advanced weapons as it is attempting to secure its northern frontier amidst the melting ice cap which also opens the shipping route from Europe to Asia via the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Two new radar stations have been built in Provideniya and Wrangel Island, and along with it, a quick reaction force has been set up in Anadyr. An airstrip has been built on the Kotelny Island which is now a part of the New Siberian Islands. Moreover, an airfield has been built on Nagurskoye, air base set up in Rogachevo and a storage facility in Olenya Guba for the unmanned nuclear powered Poseidon drone.
On 20 March 2021, the military launched massive drills near Alexandra Land which is part of the Franz Josef Land archipelago. During the exercise, three nuclear powered submarines were shown to break ice and surface simultaneously, and in addition to that, a nuclear submarine was able to launch a torpedo from beneath the ice. On 29 March, military conducted another set of exercises wherein Pantsir-S1-anti-aircraft system was tested, in-flight refueling of MiG-31 fighter jet was done and finally, jamming of drone controls was tested during a simulation attack.
Militarization of the Arctic conveys two things. Firstly, it signals that the federation will not let the West contain it across the northern frontier where it has enjoyed protection for centuries due to the harsh climatic conditions. Secondly, the military build-up is a response to the changing geopolitical situation wherein climate change is reducing ice cover every year. The long-term goal would be to dominate the NSR which will serve two-goals. First and foremost, it will allow them to set the rules of the game and secondly, the gains in trade would be utilized to fuel its military might and return to the great power status which it availed during the heydays as the Soviet Union.
Russia’s Arctic Development Strategy
President Putin adopted the “strategy for the development of the Russian Arctic Zone and provision of national security through 2035” on 26 October 2020. Through the strategy, Russia aims to ameliorate the living conditions of its population in the short-term and in the long-term it hopes to make the NSR as a new global shipping route once the ice melts.
The strategy will be implemented in three distinct phases, with the first phase running from 2020 to 2024, the second phase from 2025 to 2030 and the final phase 2031 onwards till 2035. The latest approach with regards to the Arctic Circle includes two main characteristics; first is to raise the quality of life, and secondly, the strategy is to be more region specific as compared to earlier strategies which were general in nature.
Strategic objectives to be completed by 2035:
The first strategic objective is to develop the Arctic infrastructure, which includes:
· Development of marine infrastructure which includes seaports, transportation routes in Barents, White and Pechora seas which are part of NSR.
· Establishment of headquarters for marine operations as well as the management of naval transportation along the NSR. Digitalization of services especially in cargo transportation and delivery.
· Build-up of five project 22220 and three leader-class icebreakers which ties in with its icebreaker diplomacy meant to strengthen superiority in the region.
· Enhance navigation capabilities in White sea-Baltic Canal and the basins of Onega, Northern Dvina, Mezen, Pechora, Ob, Yenisey, Lena and Kolyma rivers which is part of its ‘icebreaker diplomacy’.
Second objective is to boost military capabilities which calls to develop and equip the forces with up-to-date weapons and along with it, boost infrastructure. The document calls on to ‘create a favorable operation regime in Arctic in accordance with current and forecasted military threats’.
The third objective pushes for improving the socio-economic conditions which is essential to not only maintain presence, but also to utilize the natural resources the region has to offer. The intent is to achieve economic and ecological sustainability through the ‘creation of a special economic regime and transition toward a circular economy’.
Russia as chair of the Arctic Council
Russia will preside over the Arctic council beginning May 2021 for the 2021-2023 period. According to Russian Ambassador and senior representative to the Arctic Council Nikolay Korchunov ‘sustainable development will be at the top of the agenda’. This would entail containing the harmful consequences of climate change on the one hand and utilizing opportunities in maritime navigation and resource extraction on the other. Accessibility to adequate transport facilities, connectivity as well as infrastructure development will be the primary goals. Key issues, such as climate change, biodiversity preservation, extraction of natural resources such as oil and gas, cargo transportation and lastly tourism and trade will be addressed in cooperation with all the members of the council.
As far as social development is concerned, Moscow is considering improving access to healthcare, ameliorating infrastructure through the development of bridges, ports, airports which will enable enhancement of living conditions. Through various projects like snowflake, it aims to build international Arctic station which will be based on renewable sources to test and build environment friendly life support technologies.
The Arctic Circle is important for Russia as most of its oil and gas reserves are found in the north, especially hydrocarbons, and in February this year, the state pledged billions of dollars for infrastructure development and investment in the region. How Moscow balances exploitation of natural resources in the area and protecting the climate will have huge ramifications for not only other members of the Arctic council but the region too.
Conclusion
Russia has stepped up its game in the Arctic region, which is exemplified by its military buildup through exercises, testing of advanced weapons. The reasons for the buildup are two-fold, first being the changing geopolitical situation due to climate change and secondly, its need to protect the northern frontier. New developments in the Arctic are not taking place in isolation but are part of a long-term strategy, which is to control the region through the creation of Northern Sea Route (NSR).
The long-term objective for the federation is to build marine infrastructure and enhance navigation capabilities along the NSR, which the Russians hope will become economically viable once the ice melts. Second objective is to boost military capability to respond to threats it faces today, and the ones which may arise in the future. Third objective is to improve the socio-economic conditions for those living in the region using natural resources.
Moscow will be the chair for the Arctic council for the 2021-2023 period, wherein the top priority is sustainable development. It hopes to advance connectivity, boost infrastructure development, and enlarge the access to transport facilities. As an oil and gas exporter, it has interest in using the natural resources available in the region, but it has acceded to the Paris accord, and therefore needs to reduce its carbon emissions. What strategy Russia takes with regards to the region will affect not only the ecology but also whether the region turns into a geopolitical competition between great powers.
End Notes
1)https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/what-is-behind-russia-s-military-build-up-in-the-arctic-circle-45662
2)https://jamestown.org/program/russia-unveils-new-arctic-development-strategy-focal-points-and-key-priorities/
3)https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2020C57/
4)https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russian-arctic-council-chairmanship-will-welcome-more-active-engagement-observer-states#:~:text=With%20its%20Arctic%20Council%20chairmanship,development%20and%20resource%20extraction%20goals.
5)https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/06/satellite-images-show-russias-arctic-military-buildup-cnn-a73479
6)https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/03/30/russia-stages-fresh-military-drills-in-the-arctic-a73413
7)https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/05/europe/russia-arctic-nato-military-intl-cmd/index.html
8)https://www.euronews.com/2021/04/07/russian-military-presence-expanding-in-the-arctic-region-satellite-images-show
9)https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-climatechange/putin-orders-russian-government-to-work-towards-paris-climate-goals-idINKBN27M27R
Pic Courtesy- IDSA GIS lab
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
