Evaluating the future role of QUAD

“The Spirit of the QUAD” was released after the first summit of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) members was held on 12^th March 2021.[1] This statement is far more crucial for the future of the QUAD as it sets out the tone and its functionality in the coming age. The world currently faces a delicate situation. Suffering from the coronavirus pandemic with many countries struggling with the outcomes of the second wave of the pandemic, economy and public health emergency remains on a high. In these situations, multilateral coalitions like QUAD become increasingly important and a question is then raised upon these blocs, how are they going to be effective in the status quo? For QUAD specifically, will this dialogue increase its parameters other than security and military concerns? This characterization of its regional architecture relies heavily upon its members- the United States of America, Japan, India, and Australia- with particular emphasis on its structure and how they are moving ahead as a collective unit. The history of these regional institutions is a history of cooperation and assistance. Particularly focusing on the Asian region, pacts like South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have comprehensively focused on assisting states during various situation whether that is medical or logistical aid or providing support on a more diplomatic level[2]. Tilting towards the West, European Union (EU), North Atlantic Free Trade Association (NAFTA), these pacts have a more economical foundation as compared to the former, but the agenda is evolved pretty much on the same scale, which boils down to how to assist each other on a much broader scale. These regional coalitions and dynamics are crucial argument when you analyze post-cold war liberal institutionalism[3]. The idea of cooperation that these blocs and coalitions promote is that of cooperation of multilateral scale whether it is economic, political, or dealing with a crisis. These same questions are being posted on QUAD and specifically, these questions are important to be revised considering the meeting on 12^th March 2021. QUAD summit promised the international arena that a certain shift in dynamics of its operations and working is to be expected[4]. Whether dynamics tend to be more on the grounds of initial militaristic ground or strategic concerns will not only affect its members but shape the whole context of the Indo-Pacific in the upcoming years. Especially considering the plight of Chinese dominance in the regions and active pushing of US agenda through QUAD in the arena.[5]

The establishment of the QUAD can be tethered to an urgent response by the states. During the earthquake and tsunami crisis of 2004 in the Indian Ocean, informally QUAD came into existence by these nations[6]. From December 2004 to January 2005 these nations were at the forefront of assisting nation-state heavily affected by these natural events. The displacement of the Indian Ocean, contextualized among its people, the nation-states, was handled by QUAD in these 2 years and are credited on a large scale for handling the situation of emergency and crisis[7]. Indo- Pacific region has been riddled with this issue. The composition of ASEAN and SAARC suggests that during any crisis the region and continent should see one of the most collective actions towards the needs of the nations. Quite the contrary response has been witnessed if you compare the amount of deficit which was seen in case of aid for East Timor Crisis of 2006, the Influenza Epidemic of 2007, and Myanmar cyclone of 2008.[8] The characterization of these crises was also dealt with the formalization of these ad hoc, informalized groups which are also majorly supported and forward by the United States of America. These events indicate a pattern of trust that has been developed towards Washington DC and heavily validates their presence and even acceptance of that presence on a much larger scale. ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Manilla revived QUAD 2017, an initiative which was taken by the Trump Administration marks an important change inter so how this group has taken a change in its perspective and trajectory towards Indo- Pacific[9]. The formation and renewed interest of the USA have created a Cold War Mentality. United States of America’s foundational agreement such as Industrial Security Annex (ISA, General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA), Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (EMOA) AND Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) characterize a fundamental issue of Chinese dominance and aggression in Indo- Pacific[10]. Trump administration created a joint maritime exercise initiative and via these developments promoting the agenda of healthcare, technological developments, and climate change. Despite these mentions of the multilateral approach, military exercise and prevalent presence of fleet is still the main objective that Trump Administration was focused upon. To adhere to international law, UNCLOS, freedom of navigation and peaceful resolution of disputes, these ideas are reflected in the emphasis on building resilient supply chains in critical and emerging technologies. The Belt and Road Initiative allows China to expand based on its debt-trap diplomacy, which tends to create new markets, allies, and ports for expansion at a much rapid pace for all the regions[11]. Millennium Challenge Cooperation (MCC), Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development (BUILD) Act, Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA) and energy initiative, Asia EDGE (Enhancing Development and Growth Through Energy) provides a reasonable alternative for China’s ongoing diplomatic endeavours[12]. Japan and Australia have also joined the US in the Blue Dot Network and Indo- Pacific Business Forum and the consensus on the rules-based order in the international law by QUAD provide its reasonable impetus to enhance its agenda. These quadrilateral dialogue structures, cross-serving arrangements and naval exercises provides the ability for QUAD to strengthen posing a long economical and strategic challenge to China[13]. Although QUAD argues that it is not only a military alliance or propaganda-based organization, but the critique also comes from Beijing that QUAD is essentially Indo- Pacific NATO. There is also criticism that economic growth, climate change and health sector is still a secondary objective for the members and leaders of QUAD[14].

Post 12^th March 2021, meeting is expecting a transition of Quad into Quad 2.0.[15] But the main question here is: what changes in the formal structures of QUAD are required to establish a QUAD 2.0? The future of the QUAD will depend on how it resorts to define and carry forward its work and agenda. Restoration of Democracy and prioritizing the strengthening of democracy tends to the main agenda of QUAD and its focus in the Indo -Pacific. What the meeting of 12^th March 2021 sets out to do is that it establishes a different tone. A major change in terms of the future of QUAD will witness is that now the extension will depend on how President Joe Biden will decide to continue the agenda[16]. Spirit of the QUAD revealed its initial agenda of strengthening the logistical, financial, and procedural bases of manufacturing and delivering vaccine in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. This highly ambitious international vaccine initiative tends to incorporate diverse perspectives and in creating a united vision for Indo- Pacific. Moreover, under the spirit, the US Development Finance Corporation has signalled about working with Hyderabad- base Biological E. Limited to meet the vaccine doses by the end of 2022 with Stringent Regulatory Authorization (SRA), and further, Tokyo, Australia and India will see to collaborate on working on climate change and technological uprise in the region[17]. About the Chinese problem in the Indo- Pacific, summit discussed the prioritization of international law in the region. Reflecting on the norms of the United Nations Convention on Laws of Sea (UNCLOS) and collaborating on maritime security in the East and the South China Sea dispute, the focus on China is not directed towards targeting the aggressive fleet but maintaining the order around the region and respective islands[18]. One thing that was made sure that China’s activities in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Taiwan strait or in the South China Sea is exactly the kind of undemocratic policies that are needed to be targeted by QUAD. Moreover, Chinese harassment on the Australian trade route, on Senkaku Islands and with India further solidifies this policy created by QUAD as it contains a common consensus on that behalf[19]. These democratic credentials have been set as the principal argument for China and the vaccination program tends to narrativize the expansion programs taken up by QUAD. Furthermore, to increase the formality of the coalition and legitimacy, ASEAN Centrality is being challenged by ASEAN Unity[20]. One of the issues that ASEAN faces to counter the Chinese hegemony is the increased dependency of most ASEAN nations on Beijing. Financial and political dependence on China makes it difficult for the regional organization order to counter against its undemocratic methods, some examples of which are the restrained condemnation of Chinese actions in Xinjiang and Hong Kong[21]. QUAD recognized the fragility in the operation of ASEAN in question with China and recognizes the need to overcome vulnerability in regions of Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, when the question of aid and support on an international level. Rather than working on the notion of centrality which is a double sword and works against the Asian region, creating and strengthening ASEA unity with multilateral economic and political measures. The autonomy that QUAD strives to develop in the Indo-Pacific region is relatable to the organic and natural process of the Indo-Pacific, which share common geostrategic and geo-economic issues of nation-states[22]. These developments signal an important path in terms of how QUAD 2.0 will further focus What QUAD is trying to prove with these developments and with the Biden administration’s new agenda is that the mere existence of QUAD does not prove that it is necessarily an exclusive anti-Chinese bloc. These expansions are trying to focus on including nations like Brazil, Israel, New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam which seeks to be a long-term goal known as the QUAD plus format[23]. The advancement stands that it should operate on a rule-based order in international law to advance security and counter threats in the Indo-Pacific, which are not only a part of Chinese endeavor but uplifting the confidence and overall security of the whole region. Biden administration is targeted to remove that Cold War mentality and influence in a broader framework of peace and security in the 21^st century which as we see is also threatened by factors like health other externalities not restricted to a military and strategic alliance.

The progress of QUAD in the current international scenario is filled with challenges. From the Indian perspective, the support from Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS has seen a steady decline. The US involvement in the region has angered the Chinese officials especially in juxtaposition got its previous relations with Japan, Australia, and India. As the QUAD will continue to progress and despite whatever policies are enacted by the Biden administration for QUAD, China will continue to act against it. India’s decline of RCEP was primarily based on an anti-Chinese rhetoric. This rhetoric is being followed by Beijing in terms of support and recognition of QUAD. The challenge of QUAD will remain in terms of proving its consequentiality. The establishment of organizations like SAARC, ASEAN allows the region to have its sovereignty when it comes to handling the matters of regional diplomacy. The involvement of the USA in this characterization provides an essential question of whether the acceptance of the USA in the region for its security and development will prove consequential for the nations of the region itself. If the USA tends to work in QUAD with its motives and agenda and ignore the consideration of the Indo-Pacific, then QUAD can substantially backfire with its establishment. Biden administration needs to make sure that all the countries are in sync with its work and eradicate a cold war mentality. Security and peace of the region is completely a separate agenda from pressurizing China. If developments like vaccine program can be substantiated by devising protocols and agreements of environment protection, maritime security, blue economy initiative then QUAD 2.0 will prove its objective of being multilateral. Economic progression and stability during the Covid- 19 pandemic is a common concern for every nation and QUAD should also incorporate this need of restoration in its mandate. The idea of multilateralism requires the establishment to focus on its democratization notion more than its militaristic commitments when re-vitalized in 2017.                       

Notes

[1] (12th March 2021). “Explained- Why this QUAD summit is important”. Deccan Herald.

[2] Dr. A.Jash (8th March 2021). “The QUAD factor in the Indo- Pacific and Role of India”. Air University.

[3] Ibid.

[4] (16th April 2021). “QUAD Cooperation”. The Tribune

[5] TNN (6th April 2021). “QUAD exercise begins day after Russia rejects ‘bloc approach”. The Times of India

[6] V. Kullashri (8th July 2020). “QUAD grouping and India’s role in it”. Kootneeti.

[7] Ibid.

[8] (7th April 2021). “Explained: What is the QUAD and why does it matter to India”. Times of India

[9] PTI (17th April 2021). “US, Japan pledge to strengthen QUAD to build free, open Indo- Pacific region”. Business Standard.

[10] ibid

[11] K.P. Nayar (29th March 2021). “QUAD, China and India’s multi- polarity”. MoneyControl, Foreign Affairs

[12] M. Kulshreshtha (3rd April 2021). “French Naval exercise La Perouse: India joins to Make it Full QUAD”. Financial Express

[13] S.D.Naqvi (26th March 2021). “Australia growing role in Asia- Pacific under QUAD”. ModernDiplomacy

[14] Y. Raj (10th April 2021). “Distrust of China’s Role ‘consolidated’ QUAD: Report. The Hindustan Times

[15] M. Kulshreshtha (19th April 2021). “India’s Indo- Pacific Supremacy: Use of military power for economic equilibrium”. Financial Express

[16] ibid

[17] TNN (6th April 2021). “QUAD exercise begins day after Russia rejects ‘bloc approach”. The Times of India

[18] PTI (17th April 2021). “US, Japan pledge to strengthen QUAD, to build free, open, accessible Indo- Pacific”. The HinduBusinessLine

[19] S.B. Asthana (23rd March 2021). “QUAD Summit 2021 Rattles China: What Next?” FutureDirections

[20] Ibid.

[21] S.N.Kutty and R. Basrur (24th March 2021). “The QUAD: What it is- And what it is not”. The Diplomat

[22] J.T. Vanak, J.Souders. K.D.Mazo (30th March 2021). “How to operationalize the QUAD”. The Diplomat

[23] (4th April 2021). “Building Small Circles in Name of Multilateralism is Groupism: China on QUAD” The Wire

Pic Courtesy-The Japan Times

(The views expressed are personal views of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)