Pakistan’s political conundrum?
Pakistan, a South Asian country, is experiencing not just a political crisis but also military, environmental, economic, and foreign policy crises. The worst flood to ever hit the nation struck in 2022, killing thousands of people. On the economic front, the nation is dealing with high inflation and declining foreign exchange reserves. Political leadership, which could take the country out of this predicament, is also displaying signs of crisis.
Considering this scenario, this article seeks to shed light on the events that have occurred since April 2022 that have contributed to the current situation in Pakistan. To do that, the first section of the article will cover Imran Khan, what caused his downfall in April 2022, and how he has been coming up with a new strategy to regain power. The article would then concentrate on Shahbaz Sharif, the current prime minister of Pakistan, and how Sharif has contributed to the country's current political predicament.
Imran Khan
Pakistan's parliament typically serves terms of five years. However, Pakistan has a history of having prime ministers who did not serve out the whole term, including RP Ashraf (275 days), Nawaz Sharif (4 years, 53 days), and SK Abbasi (303 days). Imran Khan, a former cricketer turned politician who rose to power in 2018 by promising support for welfare, anti-corruption, and the country's economic restoration, has recently preserved this historical lineage. He was ousted from office in April following a no-confidence vote in parliament, after serving for less than four years. He has since been attempting a political comeback. There were many grounds for passing a no-confidence motion, including the opposition party led by Shahbaz's claim that he was chosen by the military rather than elected and for failing on both the economic and governance fronts.
However, his departure from the military was the main factor in his downfall. In October 2021, he and the military reached an impasse over the transfer of the Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence. He stalled approving the transfer of the director general for weeks despite the military's prior consent. Khan was loyal to the then-ISI chief, and it was believed that Khan wanted him to be in place for the next elections. However, Khan lost the military's support when he refused to transfer. Due to this division, other political parties had the chance to unseat Imran Khan by approving a motion of no confidence. (Afzal, 2022)
Since then, he has alleged again and again that the Shahbaz government and the USA were behind a plot against him. His removal, however, is just one of several contributing factors to Pakistan's current political predicament. The second contributing factor is that Imran Khan has recently been barred from running for public office for the next five years by the Pakistan Election Commission. He was disqualified because, while serving as prime minister, he fraudulently traded gifts from the government and concealed assets. Government leaders in Pakistan are permitted to buy back gifts, but they are rarely traded. If they are, the person must report it as income. (Imran Khan challenges Pakistan ruling disqualifying him from office, 2022)
Strategy of Imran Khan to regain power
Imran Khan's post-April tactics can be seen on three fronts: first, he blamed the United States and Sharif for his ouster and referred to Sharif as a crime minister and Shahbaz's government as being imported. However, the governments of the USA and Sharif both denied these accusations. But recently a significant shift has been noticed in Imran’s tactics. Now, he no longer accuses USA. In an interview with the Financial Times on October 12, 2022, Imran stated, “As far as I am concerned, it's over; it’s behind me.” “The Pakistan I want to lead must have good relationships with everyone, especially the United States.” (Hussain, 2022) The second tactic, or more precisely, Imran Khan's demand, is that early elections, which are legally slated to take place in 2023, be held. Third, he is organizing rallies and marches, dubbed the Freedom March, to rally public support.
Shahbaz Khan: the new Prime Minister
Shahbaz Khan is another significant figure in Pakistan's political puzzle. His government has been in a state of gridlock and is attempting to find its footing since he came to power in April 2022. He has been dealing with other challenges in addition to the Imran Khan-led opposition. First, he is the older brother of former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the leader who was found guilty of hiding assets overseas and given a 10-year term in 2017, which barred him from running for office. Experts claim that Nawaz Sharif continues to play a significant political role in Pakistan. For instance, the recent trip to London by Shahbaz Sharif and important members of his cabinet to meet with Nawaz on the course of the new government.
Second, the government was in a state of dilemma whether to keep the expensive, unsustainable fuel subsidies that Khan's administration introduced, and that the IMF wants eliminated as a requirement for renewing Pakistan's loan program. A government with little time left in office before the next election is concerned that cutting subsidies will be controversial. Because of this reason, the administration has decided to continue subsidies over the advice of its own finance minister. (Afzal, 2022)
Third, it has been asserted that Sharif's party only had one goal in mind: to unseat Imran Khan. Mr. Sharif has no idea what to do after removing Khan because he has not yet come up with any plans for the development of the nation. Additionally, the administration is unable to address the current economic crisis, which is partially influenced by exogenous forces, the struggle for power in Punjab, and the president's affiliation with and loyalty to Khan's party.
Conclusion
The tussle between the ruling government and the opposition has destabilized an already impoverished country. When the government should have focused on improving people's conditions and easing the country's financial situation, and when the opposition should have focused on gaining people's support and showing the way forward, both are engaged in accusing each other. Currently, the country owes nearly 30% of its debt to China, nearly 1800 people have lost their lives due to flooding, and a high rate of terrorist attacks are happening in the nation. It is high time for the political leadership of Pakistan to give the people what they deserve. A country governs best when it has not only a people-centric government but also a people-centric opposition.
Furthermore, despite Pakistan's history of political assassinations and violence, all of the parties in Pakistan need to recognize that this is wrong. Assassination attempts only lead to unrest. Therefore, both parties should show concern for the continuous suffering of common Pakistanis, who continue to bear the brunt of the nation's protracted period of political instability.
References
- Afzal, M. (2022, May 20). What is happening in Pakistan’s continuing crisis? Retrieved from Brookings : https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/05/20/what-is-happening-in-pakistans-continuing-crisis/
- Hussain, A. (2022, November 14). Imran Khan’s U-turn: No longer blaming US for his ouster as PM. Retrieved from Aljazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/14/imran-khan-u-turn-no-longer-blames-us-for-removal-as-premier
- Imran Khan challenges Pakistan ruling disqualifying him from office. (2022, October 22). Retrieved from The National : https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/asia/2022/10/22/imran-khan-challenges-pakistan-ruling-disqualifying-him-from-office/
Image Courtesy: Abdullah Aydin at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
Neha Dayma has recently completed her Masters in Politics with Specialization in International Studies from Jawaharlal Nehru University. She is a political science graduate and also a current intern at Online Foreign Policy School. Her areas of interest include South- East Asia, West Asia, geopolitics, Indo- Pacific and India's foreign policy.
