New Political Developments in Maldives
One of the world’s most geographically separated nations, the Maldives, is becoming more important and playing an essential role in the current geopolitical developments. The Indian Ocean’s centrally placed island republic, which is made up of 26 atolls and is scattered across 90,000 square kilometres, lies southwest of Sri Lanka and crosses crucial marine routes of communication.
The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is of paramount importance to India; thus it has taken a proactive stance in cementing its role as the leader in the Indian Ocean since the Modi government took office in 2014 by prioritising maritime diplomacy and initiatives. This is happening against a backdrop of increasing Chinese aggressiveness in the IOR and rising interest from numerous nations in the Maldives and the Indian Ocean as a whole. The Maldives is no longer about its tourist destinations, and it has also become a prominent strategic influence in the South Asian region.
The United States, one of the biggest forces in the Indian Ocean, has come to understand the strategic importance of the Maldives because of its geostrategic location in the IOR and its closeness to Diego Garcia. The Maldives and the United States inked their first defence deal outside of one with India in 2020, which India heartily welcomed. There was a great deal of political unease in India when China entered the South Asian periphery; this unease was not present when the Maldives expanded security-based relations with the US. This bias is related to India’s participation in the Indo-Pacific partnership with the US, Australia, and Japan to restrain China’s potential strategic ascent in the Asia-Pacific region. In the same context, Maldives also has a good relationship with Japan and has appreciated the Quad’s developments.
POLITICS IN MALDIVES-
Intense political and economic unrest characterised the Maldives under the governments of Mohammed Waheed Hassan and Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom from the year 2013 to 2018. After the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) took office in 2018 and Ibrahim Mohamed Solih was elected president, India’s situation, in particular, improved.[1] The Maldives’ economy and people have benefited from the MDP government’s constructive and development-oriented stance toward India, which was very different during the Yameen government. Additionally, it has assisted in defending the area from China, attempting to cause problems for India and the US.
Regarding the economic aspect, Maldives’ extraordinarily varied and rich marine habitat has helped the country develop a booming high-end tourism industry. Profits from tourism have contributed to a reduction in poverty and steady advancements in human development outcomes over the past 50 years. However, the COVID-19 epidemic has highlighted significant issues with the Maldives’ development strategy. Small size, remoteness from other areas, and a dispersed population make it challenging for companies to offer their products or services at competitive prices. It also discourages companies from establishing their manufacturing or industrial branches. Public services follow the same rules. Sea level rise, tropical storms, and floods are just a few of the climate-related problems that The Maldives is already dealing with. Being an island in such a location, the nation is extremely prone to natural disasters. Rapid tourism growth and large-scale infrastructure projects have increased the vulnerability of the islands, communities, livelihoods, and infrastructure to climate change. The Maldives, with relatively high broadband and mobile internet penetration rate, is well situated to increase prospects for its young population. In comparison to other South Asian countries and those outside the area, more than 63% of the population had internet connection in 2019.[2] A wider adoption of digital technology can aid the government in providing better services, open markets to smaller enterprises and unorganised labour, and offer solutions to satisfy the ambitions of the nation’s young.
INDIA’S RELATIONS WITH MALDIVES-
On 2nd August 2022, the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, announced that India would provide the Maldives with an extra $100 million line of credit. India and the Maldives inked six pacts to enhance collaboration in capacity building, cyber security, housing, disaster management, and infrastructure during the bilateral meetings between Prime Minister Modi and President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldives. The Greater Male Connectivity Project (GMCP), which would feature a 6.74 km bridge and a causeway connecting the capital Male with the neighbouring islands, had its first concrete poured earlier, and they had participated remotely. India is providing the $500 million project with funding.[3] With 13% of its exports flowing to the Maldives, India is also its second-largest trading partner. Additionally, India had allowed the Maldives to import some necessities without limitation the previous year. India and the Maldives have also agreed upon seven pacts in April 2022 to create new initiatives in sectors including youth centres, sports, health, and heritage preservation.[4]
In addition to being among the first nations to recognise the Maldives when it gained its independence in 1965, India was also the first to establish a permanent mission in Malé. According to a defence cooperation agreement that India and the Maldives signed in 2009, India would link 26 radars to its coastal command and install them on all the atolls for seamless coverage. The Indian Navy and Maldives National Defense Force (MNDF) would cooperate on patrolling and surveillance tasks. Events like the tsunami in 2004 and the drinking water crisis in the Maldives in 2014, which prompted quick and effective responses from India, further strengthened New Delhi’s status as the region’s first responder and supplier of network security. Numerous projects are being carried out by India in the Maldives, apart from the Greater Malé Connectivity project, the training of Maldivian civil servants in India, cargo vessel services, capacity building and training of the MNDF, and infrastructure projects like the Gulhifalhu Port Project and the Hulhumalé cricket stadium.[5]
The “India First” and “Neighborhood First” policies of the Maldives and India respectively serve as the foundation for their relationship. The two countries have a particularly tight partnership in defence since they both recognise how important it is to defend the Indian Ocean Region from conventional and non-conventional threats. Regardless, the ties between India and the Maldives are still facing challenges. The former president Yameen’s “India Out” movement has gathered traction in recent months. Although the controversy is nominally about an Indian-funded dockyard for the Maldivian coast guard, the bigger issue is the island nation’s sovereignty.[6] It is important to remember that the relationship between India and the Maldives is founded on respect and that the major responsibility of the Indian staff stationed there is to maintain and fly the aircraft. The Maldives is a group of dispersed islands numbering in the hundreds. Moreover, the nation now has to contend with difficulties like rising radicalisation and youngsters brainwashed into joining international terrorist groups in places like Syria, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, which directly impact India.[7]
INDIA-CHINA RIFT IN MALDIVES-
India has always prioritised the Maldives as an important player in the Indian Ocean. Still, Beijing has recently increased its engagement with the country as part of its 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative, the maritime component of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), signalling its intentions and priorities in the region. China and the Maldives started having bilateral relations in 1972. Since then, the Chinese have steadily grown their investments in the Maldives while keeping amicable ties with the various Maldivian administrations. Beginning in 1985, Chinese businesses started working on projects in the Maldives. By the end of 2001, their contractual projects had a total value of $46.37 million, and their revenue had reached $40 million. After Sri Lanka, the Maldives was the second country in South Asia to publicly support the BRI in 2014. Right after that, the two countries also signed a free trade pact.[8]
The Sino-Maldivian relationship reached a turning point in 2013 after Abdulla Yameen became the leader and expressed a strong desire to be a Chinese ally. Chinese officials have consistently urged its people to travel to and invest in the Maldives. The Chinese have invested in several initiatives, including building bridges connecting Malé and Hulhule, a power plant, new roads, housing units, and the main international airport. They have also made investments in tourism and agriculture. Additionally, the majority of visitors to the Maldives come from China.
India has been given priority over China since Ibrahim Mohamed Solih took office in 2018 after beating Yameen in the presidential election of that year, and the current administration has broken some of its promises to the Chinese government.[9] Immediately after the election, the Solih administration asked for aid from India and the US to climb out from under a pile of Chinese debt. Political notions about fostering historically and geographically based neighbourly connections between the two nations in order to advance bilateral and regional cooperation shaped the “India First” strategy. President Solih’s decision to assess China’s investments and development cooperation showed that he shared India’s political philosophy about the need to rein in China’s regional activities. China has not been viewed as a security threat to the Maldives by Solih’s administration, but his foreign policy has still reduced China’s influence there.
CONCLUSION-
The Maldives are now more integrated into India’s larger Indo-Pacific security area in South Asia because of the country’s increased defence and strategic cooperation. India plays a crucial role as the region’s main provider of internet security, especially in light of China’s influence in South Asia’s maritime nations like the Maldives. The relationship between the Maldives and India in defence and security can strengthen the Maldives’ strategic position in the Indo-Pacific security area. However, internal political ideologies have a part in this function as well. The administration of President Solih has chosen to support India internationally. However, India’s ability to properly control regional security within the Indo-Pacific security zone has been significantly impacted by how the Maldives established regional alliances with extra-territorial countries, such as China.
Therefore, Maldives’ domestic politics and focus on regional economic development will determine its foreign policy, which in turn will indicate the direction the country will lean. The presidential elections that is next year will again determine who will be in favour, but in the long run, India and the Maldives have a unique tie that China cannot purchase. Whatever happens, India should have a proactive approach toward the Maldives and support the country in addressing issues like terrorism and climate change, build bilateral relations on the basis on regional and maritime security and defense cooperation.
REFERENCES-
[1] Can the Maldives Steer Regional Power Politics? (2019, January 30). E-International Relations. https://www.e-ir.info/2019/01/30/can-maldives-steer-regional-power-politics/
[2] Maldives: Tackling New Challenges for a Sustainable COVID Recovery. (n.d.). [Text/HTML]. World Bank, from https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2021/08/05/tackling-new-challenges-for-sustainable-covid-recovery-in-maldives
[3] Bhattacherjee, K. (2022, August 2). India is highest priority, says Maldives President Solih after signing six agreements. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-is-first-priority-says-maldives-president-solih-after-signing-six-agreements/article65715827.ece
[4] The Role of the Maldives in the Indo-Pacific Security Space in South Asia. (2021, February 9). E-International Relations. https://www.e-ir.info/2021/02/09/the-role-of-the-maldives-in-the-indo-pacific-security-space-in-south-asia/
[5]The China-India Cold War in Maldives, from https://thediplomat.com/2022/01/the-china-india-cold-war-in-maldives/
[6] Maldives’ domestic politics has potential for fallout on India ties | South Asia Monitor. (n.d.), from https://www.southasiamonitor.org/spotlight/maldives-domestic-politics-has-potential-fallout-india-ties
[7] The Maldives: An Island Battleground for India-China Competition. (2021, July 16). Georgetown Journal of International Affairs. https://gjia.georgetown.edu/2021/07/16/the-maldives-an-island-battleground-for-india-china-competition/
[8] Balancing China and India: An Unenviable Task for the Maldives – NUS Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), from https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/papers/balancing-china-and-india-an-unenviable-task-for-the-maldives/
[9] India surges ahead of China in the Maldives | Deccan Herald. (n.d.), from https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/india-surges-ahead-of-china-in-the-maldives-1025413.html
Pic Courtesy-Med J at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE)
