Impact of French Presidential Elections on Europe

The second round, to be held later, is crucial to France in particular, and Europe in general, given the core ideological and political beliefs of both the candidates on specific key issues. While the centrist Macron has professed his belief in a more globalised worldview, the far-right Le Pen has advocated for a greater protectionist economy. Le Pen’s had distinct views on fiscal and social policies, foreign affairs and defence, climate change and immigration, which have been termed as “ethno-liberalism”. The differing opinions could pose obstacles to the future of the trade relations between Europe and France.

Le Pen has repeatedly voiced her intent to withdraw France from NATO’s Integrated Military Command and threatened to reduce France’s share of the European Union Budget. She had earlier expressed interest in “Frexit”, though she has since revised her views on France exiting the Union. An exit would have significant consequences, as France, while a founding member of the EU, also possesses the largest defence budget in the bloc. Le Pen had also suggested distancing France from its close ally in the EU, Germany, and ending the close military programmes between two states. France is the third-largest contributor to NATO’s military and civil budgets. Additionally, with France being the biggest maritime power of the EU, the future of the EU’s Indo-Pacific ambitions will be majorly impacted. It is considered a resident power in the region due to its territories in the Indo-Pacific. France has also contributed to the bloc’s maritime capability building and capacity enhancement missions. Noteworthily, France holds the Presidentship of the EU for the ongoing first half of 2022.

Apart from the scepticism that Le Pen views the EU policies and regulations with, Le Penn is also known for her admiration of the incumbent Russian President, Vladimir Putin. She has expressed her opposition to sending weapons to Ukraine, backed by the belief that the EU and NATO’s sanctions have been instrumental in pushing Russia closer to China. She views the rise of China as a threat to the stable international order and thereby seeks to prevent the creation of a Sino-Russian alliance. It is important to note that both Macron and Le Pen view China with suspicion. This sentiment is beneficial for India, as she is also keen on proposing India a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council. Le Penn has shown support for continuing the close relations between France and India and working together in the areas of defence and industrial sectors.

However, Emmanuel Macron's presidential majority did not win an absolute majority of seats in the June 19 French legislative elections for 2022. It was described as a defeat for the Élisabeth Borne administration as well as the ruling Ensemble Citoyens alliance. The no-confidence vote, according to French MP Bastien Lachaud, “will make everything clear.” It has to do with the practice of declining requests for confidence. Any member of Parliament who recognises that this is a violation of democracy at this time may vote in favour of the resolution. Certain key allies and ministers of the incumbent party have also lost out their places in the election. Thus the key to maintaining the quest for the French elections was pivotal in deciding the future trajectory of the EU-Russia LNG and oil trade.

The External Affairs Minister said while attending the Ministerial Forum for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, that the promise of multilateralism in maintaining a regional order in the Indo-Pacific with France, is a critical bridge to connect Europe with India. Together they participate in combined and joint military exercises to bring efficiency in the terms of interoperability. India was also a participant at the French-led La Perouse Exercise. Both states share a strategic relationship with each other and interact at multiple levels. Hence, in India’s case, the significance of the special strategic partnership between the two states arises from their bilateral relationship and it is being a gateway for India to facilitate an intimate connection with Europe. Le Pen’s views on retracting France from the EU and NATO in varying degrees have cast a shadow of apprehension regarding the unpredictability and unsustainability of French multilateralism under her possible Presidentship.

Image Courtesy: Rodrigo Kugnharski at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are thoSe fo the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)