India’s SCO Challenge: Treading a fine line
Initially, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was the group of the six Eurasian countries that expanded with the inclusion of India and Pakistan in 2017. Constituted to resolve border disputes between the participant states, the organization’s agenda has been spread to the anti-terrorism, trade, and connectivity. Now the group, by many opinion-makers of the west, perceived as a China-dominated regional group presenting the alternative of the institutions forwarded by the West, is entirely based on non-western agenda and is a part of China’s blueprint for manufacturing the new world order. However, the arrangement received attention as a harbinger of a new paradigm in international relations, the group itself includes the members that do not align with each other’s priorities regarding the functioning of the group, especially the case with India.
The SCO is not resembling the ‘NATO’ or an ‘alliance of the East’ as predicted by the scholars some time ago. Has it been going that way; India certainly would not like to be a part of the Shanghai group. New Delhi's approach towards the SCO emulated by its developmental needs hindered by the regional adversary of China and Pakistan. We can sketch the SCO offerings and India’s need to find the convergence between both which appears to be dramatically paradoxical. SCO includes four central Asian countries with Russia and China envisaged as the platform for enhancing regional cooperation among these geographically contiguous states. India’s membership in the group increased its hope to get connected with the resourceful Central Asia which had been blocked by the notorious Pakistan and unstable Afghanistan. But the hindrance continued even after joining the club as it did not count as exceptional with the fact that Pakistan also became a member of the SCO, on the same day. The shocking scene coming from Afghanistan jeopardizes India’s plan to Stretch the Indian Chabahar network to central Asia and beyond, the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan would strengthen Pakistan's influence in the region to create further obstacles in India’s long desire to connect with the central Asian landmass. The group, envisaged by other foreign policy experts, will provide India more grounds to negotiate its border disputes with China and Pakistan – stands unproductive. The diplomacy maybe perhaps understood with the viewpoint that every dialogue is necessary and each meeting is useful but the complexities attached with the SCO have proven to be the barrier in India’s approach. The Indian border dispute with Pakistan is not an international concern, reiterated multiple times by India is self-emulator of India’s disinterest of organization’s meddling in bilateral Indo-Pak issue and China soft corner to Pakistan ensures India that China is likely to take Pakistan’s side; these facts undermined the role of SCO In resolving India and Pakistan border dispute.
To the issue of India-China, they were in constant touch before and after joining the group, Wuhan and Mamallapuram summit are the testimony. BRICS also provides a similar ground with the fact that it is not dominated by China the way SCO comes under China’s fold. But the negotiations were not fruitful and China and India keep clashing on the border (Galwan and Doklam), continuing to get along with frosty relations. Despite joining the group, India is battling with China to reduce its increasing influence in South Asia pillared on Pakistan's assistance, and China checks diplomacy by cooperating with its south Asian Neighbors and like-minded states (Quad members and France). The scenario cleared the fact that SCO is perhaps unhelpful in pursuit of any of the Indian visions regarding China and Pakistan, it is dominated by China which remains India’s primary theater of concern. As the China-India relations enter the free-fall aftermath of the Galwan crisis, New Delhi finds itself at the margins of the SCO, even when India hosted the SCO Heads of Government Summit on 30 November 2020 for the first time.
India has its own set of discomforts with the group so do the other members of the group. Infect, India’s inclusion in the group occurs on the behest of Russia who desires to balance China in the arrangement. Structurally and functionally SCO is different from its original foundation after admitting India and Pakistan. Four of its members holds the nuclear weapon and nearly account for half of the world's population and a quarter of world's Gross domestic product. All the members having divergent international agendas could prove to be devastating for the group – if mismanaged.
While the other members find a way to negotiate with China, the debate on the enlargement of the group hinges unsettled. The interest of the members of the group lay divergent as the Russian wanted to spread the boundaries of the group, to make it more global, so it can satisfy its desire of being a global power. While China seems to be eschewed towards the idea of a regional SCO. Thus, the SCO appears to be stuck in between the important conflict of today’s world – Globalization and Regionalization. Another aspect of the internal disagreement can be found in the agenda the group emanates. Russia and China are perhaps the only players with anti-western posture in the group while the other members do not find grip in being thoroughly anti-western and the dilemma especially faced by India when it joined the supposed Anti-western group. The balancing of the preferences is also the issue because, at the foundation, the group vision was to throttle the non-traditional aspect of security but since the group started to gather international coverage other members of the group like Russia and China desire to transform the arrangement as a formal military alliance, which is still unannounced, but not improbable.
India is the only member of the group that does not like the multibillion connectivity plan of China that India considers a direct violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity which parallelly continued the ‘Evasive Balancing’ of China by making strides to strategically associate with the USA at the same time reassuring China by periodic dialogue. But the discords among both the countries come to the fore after the Galwan crisis when the embrace of the US becomes apparent. Quad increasingly becoming part of India’s security strategy ignoring the concern of Russia and China. It could be possible that in near future, SCO could be sidelined by India knowing its reduced utility at the face of the emergence of new India-China rivalry
References
1) Jaloliddin Usmanov (June 26,2018), “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Harmony or Discord?”, The Diplomate.
https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/the-shanghai-cooperation-organization-harmony-or-discord/
2) K.M. Seethi(December 13, 2013) “India’s ‘Connect Central Asia Policy”, The Diplomate.
https://thediplomat.com/2013/12/indias-connect-central-asia-policy/
3) India's agenda at the SCO, The Hindu, June 18, 2011
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/indias-agenda-at-the-sco/article2110436.ece
4) Rashid Alimov, “The Role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Counteracting Threats to Peace and Security”, UN Chronicle, UN.org.
https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/role-shanghai-cooperation-organization-counteracting-threats-peace-and-security
5) Huma Siddiqui (13 July 2021), “SCO meet in Tajikistan: Afghanistan to be the focus; All regional players to play a critical role, says expert”, The Financial Express.
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/sco-meet-in-tajikistan-afghanistan-to-be-the-focus-all-regional-players-to-play-a-critical-role-says-expert/ar-AAM6y7U
6) Suyash Desai, (December 05, 2017), ‘India’s SCO Challenge’, The Diplomate.
https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/indias-sco-challenge/
7) Geeta Mohan ( November 10, 2020), ‘PM Modi's stern message for China, Pakistan in SCO meet: Respect each others’ territorial integrity’, India Today.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/pm-modi-sco-summit-xi-jinping-live-updates-1739712-2020-11-10
8) Krzysztof Iwanek, (January 01, 2020) “Does India Gain Anything From the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?”, The Diplomate.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/does-india-gain-anything-from-the-shanghai-cooperation-organization/
9) Sep 03,2020, India to host summit of SCO council of heads of government on Nov 30, The Economic Times.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-to-host-summit-of-sco-council-of-heads-of-government-on-nov-30-says-mea/articleshow/77909478.cms
10) Phunchok Stobdan, (September 29, 2020) China-India Tensions Put New Delhi at the Margins of the SCO” The Diplomate.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/china-india-tensions-put-new-delhi-at-the-margins-of-the-sco/
Pic Courtesy-ANI News
(the views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
