Chinese submarine fleet- past, present and future
After the return of power rivalry, China seems to outcompete other competitors in modernizing its military, especially its naval forces. Now, it is no longer debatable that China has gained much naval potential that dissuades the United States from taking any offensive action against China near its shores. Since the 1990s, PLAN has been modernizing steadily enough that, at the moment, although quantitatively, it is the world largest navy has more ships than the United States itself. Its modernization efforts include a wide spectrum of ships, aircraft, submarines, as well as new technological acquisitions along with logistical support, concepts, doctrines, personnel training, education and quality. Chinese ambition, as far as naval modernization is concerned, is to prepare its forces for Taiwan adventure when needed; strengthening its position in its near coastal region; take effective control of the South China sea: defending its sea lines of communication (SLOC) and enforcing its view of regulating the foreigners trespassing its EEZ, and ultimately, to replace the United States as preponderate power in the Western pacific with asserting its preeminence as the sole leader of the region.
Taking aside the naval modernization as a whole, the Chinese project of submarine development has become the talk of the town. Currently, Chinese submarine fleet consist mostly of the non-nuclear-powered-attack submarines (SSs); it also fields a small number of nuclear-powered-attack-submarines (SSNs); along with some nuclear-powered-ballistic-missile-attack-submarines (SSBNs). The number of nuclear submarines is set to grow in future as China has invested heavily to master the art of nuclear submarine development since the much-talked Huludao shipyard suspected of producing the nuclear submarine, stationed at Gulf of Bohai. Nonetheless, Chinese Navy is likely to continue its dependence largely on SSs because of slow production capability. The United States’ Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) suggested that China operated 66 Submarine (4 SSBNs, 7SSNs, and 55 SSs) in 2020 and is likely to operate 76 Submarine (8 SSBNs, 13 SSNs and 55 SSs) by 2030.
Conventional Submarines
China was initially dependent on the Soviet diesel electric submarine that subsequently came under the nomenclatures of Whiskey-Class and Romio Class; which became the backbone of the Chinese submarine fleet, now out of service, during the 1970s and 80s. They were mostly based on primitive guided/unguided missiles, torpedoes and mines and did not have the ability to engage in modern warfare and were mostly vulnerable to sensors. Based on the design of Romio class submarine, China started to produce its molded version known as the Type-035 Ming class submarine; not very spectacular, Ming class largely resembled the obsolete soviet design of late 50s and 60s, though with increased underwater endurance and acoustics. China continued to produce Ming class submarines with its several other versions, molded to perform modern warfare tactics. At least seventeen hulls are still in service; upgraded with the modern sonar system and suspected to have air-independent-propulsion (AIP). AIP is a modern propulsion system that enables a non-nuclear submarine to operate without using atmospheric oxygen, it reduces the noise and increases the stealth capability of conventional submarines.
Russian origin Kilo class submarines procured by China during the 1990s, formed a major part of the PLAN submarine fleet. Beijing operates twelve of these potent weapons which are known as one of the quietest submarines in the world. Amidst all these procurements, China continued to produce its homemade designs; the Type 039-Song class submarine claimed to be the first complete indigenously designed and manufactured in China. Can be taken for the task of submerged attack and maritime patrol, it is equipped with torpedoes which can even support the anti-ship missiles. The Type-39 Yuan class conventional submarine is the latest of indigenously developed submarine which is capable of operating on the maximum silent capabilities. Inducted in 2006, PLAN field seventeen Yuan class ships designed for the near to shore operations while maintaining the deep-sea capabilities. According to the United States Department of Defense (DOD), PRC is expected to develop a total of 25 or more Yuan class submarines by 2025. The designs also include torpedoes and anti-ship missiles and procurement of these submarines made by the Pakistan and Thailand Navy.
Nuclear Submarines
However, experiencing steady modernization, Chinese submarines remain qualitatively of lower ranks in comparison with western and Russian submarines. They have occupied gradual sophistication compared to the earlier submarines based on the antiquated designs. The anecdote of Type 091 Chinese submarine, which had the honor of being Asia’s first indigenously built Nuclear Power submarine, turning out to be a total disaster, motivated China to develop the Attack submarine in the first phase then the Missile Submarine in the following phase. So, it did not have to deal with the obstacle of surmounting the reactor, a missile and underwater launch system technology altogether in its infant years. China’s first Nuclear Powered Ballistic Missile submarine was Xia Class-Type 092 submarine which was equipped with JL-1SLBM, who’s operational range peaked around 2500km and was based on inertial guidance system. Reportedly, Xia was too noisy and slow along with an unreliable reactor, which was duly replaced by the New J?n Class – Type 094 submarine. The story of Chinese submarine modernization has achieved the feat with the inoculation of this ballistic missile submarine, the missile set apart from the traditional attack submarine fitted with the new vertical launch system that enables it to launch underwater missiles, including nuclear missiles. These J?n class submarines are equipped with the JL_2 SLBM which has the range of nearly 8000 to 9000 km; significantly enhanced the PLAN power projection capabilities against the regional adversary as well as against the USA without sailing close to its mainland. Apart from these, China possesses six Type-093 Shang class nuclear–powered-attack-submarines influenced by Russian and western offerings. Its variant type 093G, designed to house the YJ-18 cruise missiles, one of the deadliest weapons, ranged around 220 to 540 km with the speed that reached up to 3.0 Mach(terminal) - instrumental in enabling Chinese A2/AD near its shores to inflict damages on the United States’ naval warships.
China’s future submarines
China currently fields four J?n class SSBNs, another two are awaiting entry into service, PLAN J?n class submarine fleet represents the PRC’s first credible sea-based deterrent force. Construction of a new generation SSBN is likely to take place by mid 2020s; said to be equipped with a new type of SLBM. However, there are reports of development of a new Shang class type 093B SSBN likely to be equipped with guided-missile.
China’s focus is mainly on nuclear submarines, along with conventional submarines that are equipped with effective stealthy technologies and modern warfare tools. However, there are certain weaknesses and obstacles in Chinese submarine fleets, PLAN taking the submarine modernization further with the view that these submarines will be capable of acting as a crucial part of its A2/AD (Anti Access/Area Denial) strategy – that can thwart U.S Navy interventions near its coast. New acquisition and modernized fleet will enhance PLAN anti-submarine capabilities and will be instrumental in projecting its power beyond western Pacific.
References
1) U.S. Department of Defense, (2020) “Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” 45, www.defense.gov.
2) Congressional Research Paper, ( March 9, 2021), “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress”. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/details?prodcode=RL33153
3)Nuclear threat Initiative, (February 17, 2021) Chinese submarine capabilities, Retrived from
China Submarine Capabilities | NTI
4) Franz-Stefan Gady(May 2015) Revealed: China’s New ‘Carrier Killer’ Sub Simulator – The Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2015/05/revealed-chinas-new-carrier-killer-sub-simulator/
5) Type 094 Jin Class Ballistic Missile Submarine | Military-Today.com
http://www.military-today.com/navy/jin_class.htm
6)CNS Type 039A (Yuan)
7)Kyle Mizokami(Dec 6,2018) "Meet China's First Nuclear-Powered Submarine (It Was a Total Disaster)" the national interest. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/meet-chinas-first-nuclear-powered-submarine-it-was-total-disaster-38102
8) Rick joe (Jan 2019), 'Pondering China’s Future Nuclear Submarine Production', The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2019/01/pondering-chinas-future-nuclear-submarine-production/
9)Cakeb Larson,(April 2020) 'China’s Kilo-Class Submarines: “Black Holes” in the South China Sea? The national interest. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/china%E2%80%99s-kilo-class-submarines-%E2%80%9Cblack-holes%E2%80%9D-south-china-sea-144477
10) Tong Zhao(Oct 22, 2018), 'China Wants More Nuclear-Armed Submarines. Should Everyone Be Worried?' Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy.
11) Kyle mizokami(Oct 2018), 'China Is Building More Nuclear-Armed Submarines' , Popularmachenism. https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a24177617/china-is-building-more-nuclear-armed-submarines/
12)Jeffrey Lin and P.W. Singer (April 19, 2017) "China is building the world’s largest nuclear submarine facility", Popularscience.
https://www.popsci.com/china-nuclear-submarine-facility/
13) John Wilson Lewis and Xue Litai,(1994)"Designing" China's Strategic Seapower: The Politics of Force Modernization in the Nuclear Age, Stanford University Press.
14) China gets Russia’s best submarine technology, as Russia seeks to avoid economic recession,” China Daily Mail, 21 October 2015,
15)U.S. Department of Defense, “Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020
2020 China Military Power Report - Department of Defensehttps://media.defense.gov › SepPDF
Pic Courtesy -https://japan-forward.com/
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
