India- Russia and 2+2 dialogue initiative: Looking beyond binaries
India-Russia ties have shown not so significant progress since the defining moment of end of the cold war. Their relationship has been the one called as “special and privileged strategic partnership” which focusses greatly on defense cooperation. Looking at the two nation’s foreign policy, it can be safely argued that both of them have undergone important changes in their foreign policy commitment and realizations due to multi-layered domestic policy goals and the changing world order.
In a much needed step, Russia has decided to extend aid to India amidst the COVID pandemic. If solely not this, but this also has urged the two countries to establish a “2+2 ministerial dialogue” between the foreign and defense ministers to further their bilateral strategic engagement. India has previously had a similar arrangement with the US, Japan and Australia. India also reciprocated willingly, expressing renewed interest in cooperation especially in areas of space exploration and renewable energy, both of which seem to be areas of great scope for their coming together. Aid over faster supply of Sputnik vaccines therefore also received a push.
While this is good news, it also complicates India’s foreign policy on a lot of fronts. India currently enjoys a suitable arrangement under QUAD and the Indo- pacific command. Now, both the nations would be going back and forth with their age old ties. But for the changed circumstances, this means a new bolt to the US-Russia relationship which became critical post the Ukraine crisis in 2014 and made only limited progress at normalization. Russia's cyber intervention in the 2016 US presidential election campaign also gave a decisive blow to US-Russia ties. How India manages its way ahead on both the sides would be a challenge worth looking ahead.
To understand the footholds of India-Russia ties more comprehensively, it is important we go backwards. India –Russia ties were at their highest during the Soviet era. However, soon changes became inevitable, when post-Soviet-era saw the establishment of the Russian federation which sought to rebuild its foreign policy. The new Boris Yelstin government adopted a pro-west foreign policy outlook. While on the other hand, India was liberalizing its economy and looked towards west for better investment and improved trade. Hence, both, while struggling with domestic priorities, adjusted to the new presence of the new hegemon, the United States.
Despite changes, India- Russia made attempts at reviving their equation. In 1993 they signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. By the mid-1990s, Russia’s exports to India was approximately 41 percent of its total defense revenue expenditure which was a crucial survival instinct, especially for its arms industry, which suffered after the collapse of Soviet Union. In 1992, India and Russia negotiated arms agreements worth $650 million. Soon, their relationship evolved from that of a buyer-seller to those cooperating over joint research, design and production of state of the art military platforms. For example, cooperation over Brahmos missile.
Post the Ukrainian crisis and annexation of Crimea, Russia’s test with the west deteriorated and as a result, it began to focus primarily on its domestic situation. This influenced the foreign policy trajectory of both the nations differently. Russia became increasingly dependent upon China both economically and strategically. India sought to move closer towards the United States which has introduced its own pivot to Asia during the time.
Politically, their relationship has been stable and cooperative historically. The two have had their relationship bloom amidst what some scholars called a “problem free environment.” A total of 19 annual summits have been held in India and Russia, since they were first instituted in 2000. The two countries have also signed the ‘Strategic Vision for Strengthening Cooperation in Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy’ in 2014 and agreed on the ‘Partnership for Global Peace and Stability’ in 2016. In early 2019, Russia awarded the Order of St Andrew the Apostle to PM Modi for his distinguished contribution to the development of a privileged strategic partnership between Russia and India and friendly ties between the Russian and Indian peoples.
The year of 2014 marked an important year in the India- Russia ties when a joint statement identified the areas of energy, technology and innovation and economic cooperation as focal points of growth. Some of the key points included; participating in oil, gas, petrochemical and power projects in each other’s countries, joint design and development of technology in areas like space, defense, aviation, IT, new materials as well as an increased focus on high-technology sectors – while declaring that they will facilitate the Full realization of the underlying untapped potential in bilateral trade, investment and economic cooperation between the two nations. Hence, in 2014, India was 18th in the list of Russia’s top exporters. However, the bilateral trade still stuck at a meagre $9.51 billion which was nowhere near the goal of $20 billion by 2015. Further, the balance of trade remained in the favour of Russia and the deficit has rose two times to reach $3.1 billion in 2014.
It is equally important we realize that Russian help does not come without nebulous strings. Russia’s support is not mercurial and therefore it is not wise to lose an old friend in US. Let us not be taken by this narrative that in real politics, there are no permanent friends and foes but only permanent interests. However, since India is right now not in the scale to come with such flamboyant aspirations of alignment on all fronts, it should be careful of perception tricks. The current narrative should be to retain its strength and maintain a balance as before until the equations develop more clearly.
Despite divergence, India and Russia continue to share a common strategic outlook for their relationship. There is also a need for greater cooperation in areas like counterterrorism, cyber security, the Afghanistan conflict, outer space, and climate change. The “2+2 dialogue” holds great potential for cooperation and renewing lost trust. Putin has called India a “key strategic partner in the Asia-Pacific region,” where it is necessary for the leading countries to revise their relationship in order to survive and thrive. Also, the fact that Russia holds a permanent seat at the UN Security Council and has been a supporter of India on various issues including Kashmir at the international forum is of critical importance for India which, even in its greatest adversity, India must not forget and in fact make good use of.
References
·India, Russia to establish a '2+2 ministerial dialogue' between foreign, defence. (2021, april 29). Retrieved from economic times: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-russia-to-establish-a-22-ministerial-dialogue-between-foreign-defence/articleshow/82304786.cms
·India, Russia to establish a '2+2 ministerial dialogue' between foreign, defence ministers. (2021, april 28). Retrieved from the hindu: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-russia-to-establish-a-22-ministerial-dialogue-between-foreign-defence-ministers/article34431910.ece
·Ivanov, O. (2020, October 27). Russia ties mean India won’t go too far with US. Retrieved from global times: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1204848.shtml
·Partnership’, I.-R. t. (2019, October 22). India-Russia ties in a changing world order: In pursuit of a ‘Special Strategic Partnership’. Retrieved from orfonline: https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-russia-ties-in-a-changing-world-order-in-pursuit-of-a-special-strategic-partnership-56877/
·Sibal, S. (2021, April 29). India, Russia to establish '2+2 ministerial dialogue' between foreign, defence ministers. Retrieved from dna india: https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-india-russia-to-establish-22-ministerial-dialogue-between-foreign-defence-ministers-2888237
·Stent, A. (2020, April 27). Why are US-Russia relations so challenging? Retrieved from the brookings edu: https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/why-are-us-russia-relations-so-challenging/
· Zakharov, A. (2021, March 7). Is it time for damage control in India–Russia ties? Retrieved from orfonline: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/is-it-time-for-damage-control-in-india-russia-ties/
Pic Courtesy-The Daily Pioneer
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
