Assessing the International Solar Alliance (ISA) as India’s push for Global Energy Leadership

India’s Domestic Push for Solar

India is the world’s third largest producer and third largest consumer of electricity. As India’s energy requirement has been expected to increase by 200% from FY 2015-30, renewable energy sources are expected to contribute to almost 20% of India’s entire power consumption in 2022.[1] Henceforth, India’s energy policy chooses to focus on developing alternate sources of energy to meet its ever growing demand. As of 2019, fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas cater to much of India’s energy requirements, accounting for nearly 80% of total electricity generated. India nearly imports 80% of its crude oil from other nations, out of which more than 85% of which comes from OPEC member nations. At present, solar power installations account for only 2% of total electricity generated in India[2].

The government had set an initial target of generating 20 GW of its energy solar by 2022. However, due to before time achievement of the said target; the government revised this to 100 GW from the initial amount of 20 GW. To reach its target of 100 GW, the Indian Ministry of New & Renewable Energy (MNRE) proposed to achieve it through 60GW of large and medium scale solar projects and 40GW through rooftop solar projects. By the end of 31 March 2020, India expanded its installed solar power capacity by 233 times from 161 MW to 37,627 MW. [3]Solar Energy is expected to become competitive with conventional energy sources, in consonance with global trends such as increasing coal prices, increasing installations, technological innovations and decrease in prices of solar energy equipment.

Due to India’s geographical location, the calculated solar energy incidence on India's land area is about 5000 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh) per year.[4] Therefore, solar energy available in a year exceeds the possible energy output of all fossil fuel energy reserves in India.

The following sections below explain the few reasons as to why India made the push for replacing conventional energy with non-conventional energy along with the factors that supported/led to it.

Government Initiatives and Structural Support

In order to speed up the adoption of solar energy in its energy consumption mix, the government of India established specific bodies such as the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI). The SECI was established under the auspices of Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE). These bodies have been instrumental in the promoting and adopting of solar energy, by formulating policy guidelines which include bypassing bureaucratic bottlenecks in terms of awarding tender contracts to firms and organizations for development of solar equipment and setting up of solar infrastructure. One of the first steps undertaken was the aggressive increase in capacity targets over the years. In 2010, the total installed solar capacity was 10 MW and in 2016, the installed capacity stood at 6000 MW - a steep climb of 600 times in just 6 years. As of March 2019, the total installed solar capacity stands at 30 GW, accounting for an increase of 5 times in 3 years.[5]

The National Solar Mission was an initiative undertaken by the government of India and state governments to promote solar energy. The mission was inaugurated in 2010, which the primary objective of setting up 20 GW of installed solar energy capacity in the country by 2022. In 2015, this target was further revised up 100 GW by the same time frame after original target of 20 GW was surpassed in 2018, four years ahead of its original deadline[6]. The objective behind the National Solar Mission is to establish India as a global leader in solar energy, by creating policy conditions for its diffusion across the country as quickly as possible. Of the 100 GW target for solar, 40 GW is expected to be achieved through deployment of decentralised rooftop projects, 40 GW through utility-scale solar plants and 20 GW through ultra-mega solar parks with installed capacity of 500 MW or more.[7]

When the National Solar Mission was launched in 2010, the cost of solar power per unit in India was 17 INR. At present the amount of per unit cost of solar power has come down to 2.44 INR. This has been made possible by competitive tariff-based bidding that SECI, State and Central Government have undertaken through tenders.[8] The MNRE also made efforts in this direction through various public awareness campaigns and events.  According to the recent Bridge to India report, out of the 9.4  GW utility scale solar projects commissioned through Central Government tender, 50% of the same came through SECI.[9] Another important component that helped in the expansion of solar energy capacity in India was actions taken by state governments. Electricity in India is a concurrent legislation subject (on which both the Centre and states can make laws), hence it becomes imperative for states to participate in process of energy adoption. In this regard, states such as Karnataka and Tamil Nadu promoted open access through concessional wheeling & banking facilities for solar. This made the two states the highest solar power generators in the country.[10]

Other states are also following similar policy frameworks to accelerate the adoption of solar in the commercial and industrial segments. Other policy measures government of India provided was subsidies and tax breaks. Between 2010 and 2015, the government offered a subsidy of 30% of rooftop solar projects to develop the rooftop solar market. To propel the industry even further, the government also offered custom and excise duty exemption on import of equipment.[11] Most of these subsidies since 2017 have been reduced or discontinued since the Government has applied the right mechanism by withdrawing subsidies when the cost of solar projects have seen a consistent decline with improved performance and the industry eventually has become self-sustaining.[12] At present, India is the cheapest producer of solar power in the world. Solar power tariffs dropping to a world record low of INR 2.44 kWh per unit. [13]

Attracting investment

Apart from these abovementioned policy measures undertaken by Indian government, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is an essential component that the government chose to focus on. For financial and technical collaboration, and even for establishing renewable energy based power generation projects, foreign investors can enter into joint venture with an Indian partner. 100% foreign investment as equity qualifies for automatic approval. Government of India is also encouraging foreign investors to set up renewable energy-based power generation projects on build-own-operate basis.[14]

 Countering Pollution

India accounts for 7% of global pollution. In this ranking it only lags behind two countries, China (with 30% of share in global pollution) and the USA (with 15% of share, respectively). According to a report by the CBS news in 2019, 11 out 15 of world’s most polluted cities are in India. No other cities rank in this ranking from the 1^st to the 7^th city on the index, except Indian.[15] Similarly in a report published in February earlier this year by Greenpeace Southeast Asia, and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has revealed that the global cost of air pollution from fossil fuels has reached $8 billion per day or 3.3% of global GDP. The report also further revealed that China, the United States and India bear the highest costs from fossil fuel air pollution worldwide, at an estimated US$900 billion, US$600 billion and US$150 billion per year, respectively.[16] 

In this regard of pollution from fossil fuels costing India $150 billion per year, the figure translates to 5.4% of GDP per year. This is in stark contrast to the less than 2% of GDP per year that India spends on health. The analysis also suggests that an estimated one million deaths each year and approximately 980,000 estimated pre-term births, equating to an annual economic loss of Rs 10.7 lakh crore is attributed to air pollution from fossil fuels in India.[17] Burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas release pollutants in the air that we breathe in, causing adverse health effects. Major sources that contaminate the atmosphere around us are activities such as power generation, transport (through diesel and petrol), residential energy use, agriculture and industry.

Geographical Significance for Solar Initiatives

Given India’s geographical location (28° 36? 50? N, 77° 12? 30? E) and also the underlying fact that  the Tropic of Cancer passes through Central India, it can be safely assumed that more than half of the country’s landmass falls in the Torrid Zone (the heat zone of the Earth that lie between the two Tropics). These places get direct rays of the sun for all or most of the year. The Torrid Zone refers to the area of the earth which is generally hot and humid. These places also get heavy rain all the year round.

Due to the climatic condition of India with 240-300 sunny days in a year, land availability for solar generation is easily found. Most drought prone zones in rural India are arid with high radiation and are viable for setting up large solar parks. Hence, abundant land available for non-agricultural activities like solar power generation helps in local employment generation.[18]

Another policy initiative that the Indian government postulated to expand presence of solar energy in the country was Solar Policy, laid down in 2016 by Ministry of Power. It stated that states had to identify large tracts of land with appropriate insulation levels and prioritise use of government wasteland or non-agricultural lands in order to accelerate the process of acquisition for setting up of solar parks. [19]

International Commitments

One of the hallmarks of the government that formed in 2014 was to position India as a global leader. In 2015, India pledged to reduce its emission targets by 40% in 2030 at the Paris climate negotiations. However, in 2017, with the exit of the US from the climate agreement, it became all the more essential for India to assume leadership and take action, given the fact that India being the world’s third largest polluter would have a significant impact on the overall goals set by the agreement.

Indian Prime Minister Modi saw solar as a way of projecting his image a future modernist leader capable of reforms. Even before he assumed national leadership, he was the chief minister of Gujarat where he developed a reputation for efficient, if highly centralized, governance. This helped reform Modi's image as a modern leader who could deliver the nation's development goals.

He was the earliest among all Indian politicians to embrace solar, by unveiling an ambitious feed-in tariff scheme with a rate of about Rs. 16/kWh in 2009 before the National Solar Mission was launched in 2010. Among his initiatives were solar projects atop irrigation canals, which he routinely pitched as one of his achievements. By the end of his tenure in 2014, Gujarat was responsible for 900MW of solar generating capacity, about 1/3 of the country's total[20].

The International Solar Alliance (ISA) as an institutional framework

The International Solar Alliance was founded in 2015 with the idea that all solar resource rich countries which are located either completely or partially between the Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn should come together to address their energy needs. The ISA is to provide cooperation among these resource rich countries through the global community, including governments, bilateral and multilateral organizations, industries and other related stakeholders which can contribute to help achieve the common goal of increasing the use and quality of solar energy in meeting energy demands of prospective ISA member countries in a safe, convenient, equitable and sustainable manner. The ISA is the first international organization which has its headquarters in India. ISA has 122 sun-belt countries that lie partially or completely between the two tropics as its prospective members. It currently boasts of 86 member countries globally.

ISA will not duplicate or replicate the efforts others (like International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP), International Energy Agency (IEA), Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21), United Nations bodies, bilateral organizations etc.) are currently engaged in, but will establish networks and develop synergies with them and supplement their efforts in a sustainable and focused manner.[21]

As elucidated in the ISA Framework agreement which came into force in 2016, the following are the aims and objectives of the organization:

·        To collectively address key common challenges to scale up solar energy applications in line with their needs.

·        To mobilize investments worth USD 1 trillion by 2030.

·        To scale up applications of solar technologies in member countries.

·        Reduce the cost of finance to increase investments in solar energy in member countries by promoting innovative financial mechanisms and mobilising finance from institutions

·        Facilitate collaborative research and development (R&D) in solar energy technologies among member countries.

·        Promote a common cyber platform for networking, cooperation and exchange of ideas among member countries.

Organization Structure

ISA has eight standing committees that assist the organization in its programs and activities along with the Secretariat. These are the Standing Committee, the thematic Committees (such as Finance, Legal and Program Committees) and lastly the Regional Committees (for regions of the world such as Asia-Pacific, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and lastly Europe and others).

The Assembly of ISA is the chief decision making body which consists of representatives from each member country. The Assembly deliberates on matters of appointments (such as that of the Director General), budget, achievement of ISA objectives, etc.

The Assembly convenes annually wherein the ISA Member Country representatives exercise their votes to make all necessary decisions regarding the said matters, in the presence of non-voting participants including observers, prospective member nations, partner organizations and special invitees. The ISA Framework Agreement asserts that the Assembly may also meet under special circumstances.[22]  

Programs

Currently, ISA has six standalone programs that focus on implementation of solar deployment in various domains in its member countries. These programs are supported by the ISA Secretariat as well as six global committees.

1)      Scaling Solar Application for Agricultural Use

The Program on Scaling Solar Application for Agricultural Use (SSAAU) focuses on providing energy access and sustainable irrigation solutions to farmers through deployment of Solar Water Pumping systems in member countries. To make this project viable, ISA has aggregated demand from various countries to effectively bring down the cost of deploying such equipment.

Building on the successful experience of the aggregation model for procuring LEDs lights in India, the ISA secretariat undertook a global tendering process for an international competitive bidding for design, testing, manufacturing, supply, installation, commissioning and provide maintenance services for solar water pumps in ISA member countries.[23]

2)     Affordable Finance at Scale

The Solar Risk Mitigation Initiative (SRMI) launched in 2018 at COP24 in Poland aims to support the development of bankable solar programs in developing countries by leveraging private sector investments. Agencies that have contributed towards financing this initiative are World Bank (it committed $337 million to the Risk Mitigation Fund in Africa in partnership with ISA). Asian Development Bank (ADB) has contributed $2 million as technical assistance for ISA member countries in South Asia. Agence Francaise de Développement (AFD) has likewise contributed 700 million Euros for financing solar projects. The Export-Import Bank of India (EXIM) has likewise committed to financing solar projects worth $1.4 billion.

3)     Scaling Solar Mini-grids

The Scaling Solar Mini-Grids was launched in 2018, when ISA 36 of ISA member countries visited India to study solar mini-grid applications. This program is also in consonance in the Smart Power Rural Development Program by Rockefeller Foundation. ISA has also drafted a model mini-grid policy which has been distributed to member countries.

4)     Scaling Solar Rooftop

The ISA Secretariat has been working in tandem with member countries such as Peru and Ghana to provide technical assistance in support for solar rooftop projects. Similarly, a Best Practices guide has been shared with other members elucidating rooftop program implementation. Apart from this, the Secretariat has also requested that Embassies/Consulates in India to install rooftop solar on their premises. The same request was also made to members to do the same in their countries. The Secretariat in collaboration with a private consulting firm has been preparing country assessment reports to assess the demand and applicability of rooftop solar in member countries.

5)     Scaling Solar E-Mobility and Storage

The E-Mobility and Storage Program of ISA was developed by undertaking two studies. The first study focussed on an assessment of member countries’ capacities and needs for e-mobility and storage, while the second study dealt with existing technologies and projects in place regarding e-mobility, solar charging infrastructure and storage systems. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) have lauded efforts taken by ISA in this regard. They are of the belief that such studies will help them in corroborating their projections and they could use it for implementation of pilot projects.

6)     Solar Parks

The idea of a solar park is to develop a dedicated zone for development of solar power generation projects. The rationale behind is to provide energy developers a land area that is well characterised, properly infra-structured and where risks can be minimized, as well as permits and clearances for execution of projects is obtained before-hand. Hence, there is a significant prospect that the concept of solar parks can be replicated in ISA member countries. Such developments will create opportunities for member countries for solar energy trading/sharing within and across regions.

Henceforth, the above listed programs of the ISA also help in understanding the business model of the organization which is elaborated below.   

Business Model

The ISA business model consists of 4 parts. First part is the role of an ‘enabler’ by institutionalizing fellowships for the training of trainers in order to create a ready and skilled workforce. Second part is the role of a ‘facilitator’ by arranging lines of credit from multi-national banks. Third, it functions as an ‘incubator’ by nurturing initiatives such as the Solar Risk Mitigation Initiative (SRMI). Fourth, the ISA’s role is that of an ‘accelerator’ that develops tools to aggregate demand for solar roof-tops and solar water pumps – in short, a new pipeline of solar projects worth USD 5 billion. Working on the principles of economies of scale, the ISA has launched a global price tender for solar water pumps – the first of its kind – to discover the lowest price for the best quality possible for member countries.[24]

The ISA has adopted a model that is light on member commitments (for example it does not ask its member countries to pledge a certain amount of funds for the organization). Instead it narrows down its focus area mainly towards private investment in solar energy thereby easing the way in which poorer countries can adopt solar. Solar markets in small countries are often little and disintegrated to function on their own. They also lack technical know-how in terms of which set of policies and technologies suits their country best. Hence it is for this purpose that ISA aims to create a common pool/market so that cumulative costs of setting up solar energy equipment can be drastically reduced. This phenomenon is known as demand aggregation. ISA estimates that demand aggregation if implemented in the right manner can significantly reduce the cost of present solar energy equipment. Pooling demand from various countries can also reduce the risk to investors. Such risks can be local currency exchange rate, political leadership change in a member country or payment defaulters from customers.

The Indian Think Tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) in collaboration with ISA has developed some mechanisms to facilitate demand aggregation by creating a pool known as the Common Risk Mitigation Mechanism (CRMM). CRMM will act as a pooled insurance with limited liability. Banks and multi-lateral institutions can contribute to the fund for a marginal premium. This will lower the cost of capital for developing renewable energy projects.[25]

In pursuance of these ideas $1 billion funding has already been pledged by multi-national banks and private investors. Other initiatives of the ISA include training of technicians and setting up of R&D facilities and development centres in member countries in effort to make member nations self-sufficient in terms of standards for equipment testing and quality control.

The ISA as India’s push for global energy leadership

India has in the past has taken responsibility to project itself at a global leader of sorts. The first instance of this was the establishment of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) in cooperation with Egypt and Indonesia. The NAM was founded in 1960s at the height of the Cold War between USA and USSR. It was founded on the principles of third world integration, rejection of military blocs (both American and Soviet), universal nuclear disarmament and greater share in global trade by the third world. It was an attempt by India to project itself as an attractive power to the newly freed nations of the world that time, most of which were in Africa and Asia. NAM or Non-Aligned Movement as it was called fell flat when India suffered a military defeat at the hands of China in 1962. It dealt a blow to India’s idealist ambitions of a global world order. Post 1970s, NAM kept on adding more members to its fourfold but by the end of the decade it was seen as losing its way and tilting towards the Soviet bloc, with both of its founding members India and Egypt enhancing their military and strategic ties with USSR.

Apart from this, India been active in founding of international organisations such as the BRICS, a group of major developing economies of the world, IBSA, which is a group of emerging democracies of the world and the Chinese, led Asian Infrastructure Bank.

Theoretical conception of leadership

A concept in the international relations discourse is that of leadership which is defined as when “an actor guides or directs the behaviour of others toward a certain goal”. However, exercising leadership does not automatically translate into geopolitical gains. A state may exercise leadership, in terms of setting a direction or demonstrating early successes for pursuit of an objective shared by other partners. However, even if it exercises a form of leadership, this might not necessarily translate into a boost in its status due to the lack of recognition by others of its leadership role. If this status enhancement is not achieved, then the state cannot also achieve the next step – that of influence. Influence indicates translating the status (and any associated material) gains into outcomes desired by the state. These outcomes could be issue-specific or more broadly geopolitical, depending on the intent of the state.[26] Concomitantly, failure to be recognized for leadership actions will reduce the potential for an actor to exercise influence on related or even unrelated goals.

ISA and India

Now that the theoretical framework for leadership has been established, focus now shifts to as how India can leverage the ISA for geopolitical gains. First, it is important that ISA succeeds in most of its aims and objectives. One of the ways in which this can be achieved is by India continually pursuing its domestic solar successes, achieving the ambitious goals it has set for itself. This will reflect on India’s ability to lead responsibly. Next India will need to be recognized for this leadership and hence as a result get a boost to its soft power and status. Finally, India will have to convert this soft power into tangible benefits for itself in the global order.

In creation of the ISA along with France, India received a considerable enhancement to its global status. Therefore, way forward will depend on track record of the organization. Given ISA’s primary aim is to aid poor countries in Africa, parts of South east Asia and Latin America, these regions emerge as key focal points of India’s aimed geopolitical gains.

Prospects for success

India has, not so long ago demonstrated leadership in a certain sectors such as pharmaceuticals where its production of low cost drugs has helped the world in its fight for AIDS. During the 2000s, efforts were undertaken globally to pool demand for antiretroviral drugs. Indian producers ended up satisfying 80% of that demand.

Examples from the past

In 2014, India has demonstrated to the world its model of energy efficiency through unilateral leadership. This was made possible when a scheme was introduced by the government wherein the price of LED bulbs was drastically brought down (prices fell by 2/3rds their original) due to its large domestic market and its procurement power.

Comparative advantages

India, unlike other players in the renewable energy sphere has one thing with itself: a large domestic market for such goods due to the sheer size of its population and purchasing power of its consumers. Only, China exceeds India in this regard. But because Indian consumers are relatively poorer than their Chinese counterparts, any low cost solution created for the Indian market might be more readily transferable to other developing countries with the ISA acting as an institutional force multiplier.

Role of the French

France and India co-founded the ISA in 2015. In this regard, France places high value on ISA, seeing it as a unique global platform, solely focused on solar energy. It sees ISA as another new opportunity for South-South cooperation, particularly along the lines of capacity building and regulatory frameworks. ISA is not a self-funding organization; hence the French have already contributed 1.5 billion Euros by 2019 to ISA, keeping in line with its goal of expanding solar.[27] France is a global leader in the renewable energy landscape and having the French as their partners gives India and ISA access to advanced technologies and practices in this landscape and hence recognition.

The Indian Model

The Indian model of domestic solar scale-up includes efforts such as approaches to auctions for utility scale plants as well as efforts taken to create a favourable environment for rooftop solar and off-grid solar may be appreciated by other countries if they knew about it. India’s actions at home to build up this model would constitute unilateral action but its efforts to organise other through the aegis of ISA to learn about the Indian model of solar scale-up is intellectual leadership.   

Challenges faced

While it is true that ISA’s success will inadvertently depend on India’s push for domestic solar, it is also true that there are a certain set of challenges that India will face in making a successful pitch for energy leadership. Some of these challenges are external in the sense that they are not dependent on India, but rather other countries of the world and global market forces in the domain of solar energy.

Presence of other environmental organizations

ISA was founded in 2015, in an already crowded ecosystem of renewable energy organizations such the International Energy Agency (IEA) based in France and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), which is based in the UAE. This presents ISA with significant challenges in terms of how differently it can work in this ecosystem of such organizations and create a niche for itself. IRENA currently boasts of more members than ISA (IRENA has 150 states as its members while ISA’s potential members are 121). Apart from this other challenges that these already established organisations present to ISA is greater work focus. Both IRENA and IEA focus on renewable energy as a whole (this includes all sources of renewable energy such as wind, solar, hydro, geo-thermal, etc.) while the ISA is solely focused on solar energy. This limits its scope for nations that are interested in pursuing other sources of alternate energy apart from solar. 

Role of International organizations

Since the ISA does not rely on mandatory contributions from its members, the source of its funding can be a hindrance in fulfilling its ambitions. Credit risk pooling, which is one of the primary aims of ISA is partially outsourced to developmental agencies such as the World Bank and other private investors. These actors have their own agendas which have the potential to limit ISA’s efficacy. Other developments such as global recession or trade tensions between member countries can severely hamper its efficiency in pursuance of shared goals.

Member states

Many members of the ISA are developing countries who have more pressing concerns at home, and hence are not able to articulate their interests in a sufficient way such as those in Southeast Asia and Africa. Other states such as those in Africa believe that India might play a dominant role in the affairs of ISA which will overshadow their needs and concerns. Some states are not confident about solar energy yet while other are waiting for more successes before wading in more deeply.

Global market forces

India, unlike China or the US does not have the financial prowess to independently influence the price of solar energy equipment nor does it have the significant manufacture capacity to back it. Currently, India imports close to 80% of its solar energy equipment from China. Given China’s massive domestic capacity (it is the largest player in the renewable energy market today), domination of solar supply chains and higher organisational capacity, China was praised widely when it increased manufacturing single-handedly and brought down the price of solar PVs to historical lows. Hence, any concerted efforts by the Chinese will overshadow efforts undertaken by India for geopolitical gains.

Conclusion

India’s domestic model of solar scale-up definitely shows effort and promise. The ISA, though still in a nascent stage has been lauded for its programs of risk reduction, training and low-cost innovation. However, multiple obstacles such as those mentioned above need to be mitigated at every step that ISA takes for these to be translated into geo-political gains that India aspires for in the international community. Requirements include continued expansion of its solar initiatives, avoiding over-bureaucratisation, creating seamless partnerships with multinational organisations of the world, energetic participation of other member countries, gaining rapid progress in achievements and visibility in what is an already crowded ecosystem of renewable energy organisations.

Ultimately it remains to be seen whether India’s ambitions through the ISA can be met or not. Even a partial success is met with welcome in a country that has long been tipped to assume global leadership but has not been able to do so in the past. A failure, however, is only going to dampen India’s ambitions at an arrested global order.

(Picture Courtesy- Angie Warren at unsplash.com)

(The paper is the Capstone Project submitted for the MA programme with JSIA, O P Jindal University. The author is recent Masters graduate at Jindal School of International Affairs, O.P Jindal Global University. His specialisation is Diplomacy, Law and Business. The views expressed are personal.)

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