Advanced military technologies - Will China challenge US in the post-pandemic world?

Not only has China risen to become the second-largest economy in the world, but it is believed that it could also surpass the United States, its key competitor in military prowess. However, in accelerating China’s modernisation, President Xi has also deviated from other beliefs held by his predecessors. While Chinese Premiers like Deng Xiaoping believed China must bide its time and hide its strength, the current leader has put the country on a warpath in obtaining its “great power” status. This is bound to pose a problem to both the US across the Pacific along with countries in its immediate neighbourhood. Countries like India and Japan have long sought to confine China’s growth in Asia, but in the face of its technological advancements, it is unlikely that much can be done.

With the entry of the new president, there was also the entry of a new era in the Chinese military. As the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, China’s main military decision making body, Xi has sought to reform the command of the overall forces. The 2019 Chinese defence white paper depicts these reforms accurately. Not only is there a new chain of command leading directly to the president, but also the former General Staff Headquarters, General Political Department, General Logistics Department and General Armaments Department have been reshuffled into 15 organs. Along with this, he has also restructured and created 5 new theatre commands, transforming complete command and decision making processes. These actions will prove to improve the overall effectiveness of the Chinese military. The 2019 Defence white paper has also shown a number of changes to the functioning of the Chinese armed forces. Interestingly though, the paper has been written to project a very docile china. One that is of no harm to any other nation. A subheading in the paper reads as follows - China is never seeking hegemony, expansion or spheres of influence. It is almost ironical and highly contradictory that China has sought to use such wordings in its Defence papers, especially in context of its leaderships’ plans.

In 2018, during an inspection of military forces, President Xi Jinping was quoted as saying China must “step up combat readiness exercises, joint exercises and confrontational exercises to enhance servicemen’s capabilities and preparation for war”. However, statements are not the only cause of fear for the world regarding China’s rise. Certain activities have only served to bolster the already widely held fear. From its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to extensive military modernization and the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in its armed forces capability planning, China has seemingly adopted a more aggressive position than before. Though not immediately apparent, China could prove to be a largely destabilizing factor towards the western led global world order. If not a direct threat to the global order, it is clear that President Xi aims to at least end the era of US dominance in Asia for the time being. In a speech in 2014, he hinted at a security framework devoid of the United States in saying “it is for the people of Asia to run the affairs of Asia, solve the problems of Asia and uphold the security of Asia.” Though not explicit, the undertone of such a statement is unmistakable, especially coming on the heels of the unravelling of the Belt and Road Initiative. In a clear contradiction to its 2019 Defence white paper, such an initiative has already shown to be a strategic tool. A tool to be used by China in gaining a sphere of influence for itself, and reducing one for the US.

In achieving these aspirations, the Chinese government has unravelled seemingly massive plans. Along with the creation of the joint theatre commands and improvement to military-civilian collaboration, it has also begun a massive purge in corruption and huge personnel cuts. Through the reduction of military personnel, China is aiming to create smart forces which would serve to be more efficient in contemporary battles and also allow for capital to be concentrated elsewhere. Seemingly, the shift in focus has been towards other key areas. More specifically maritime, cyber, and space. The army was considered to be the most important aspect of the armed forces. However, today it has become apparent that future battles are more likely to be fought elsewhere. It has become clear that China has realised the same and focused a majority of its recent advancements in developing the same These advancements include incursions into space technology, cyber warfare and the integration of AI into the military. This along with the restructuring of the Chinese military has set the country on a course of achieving President Xi’s goal of possessing a "world-class” armed force by 2050.

Preparing for Non-conventional Arenas – Making Inroads into Cyber and Space

It is true that China had begun its space programs nearly 40 years after the United States. However, China has exponentially accelerated the same. In this it also holds the mantle of being the first country to send a rover to the far side of the moon last year. In addition to its space exploration, China has installed a number of satellites over the past few decades. In the past three years alone, China launched more than 10 satellites into space with the use of its advanced Chang Zheng Launch vehicles. In 2018, it launched a series of seven small satellites expected to serve for logistics tracing, vehicle and ship monitoring and field emergency rescue. These were manufactured by Commsat, a Beijing based private satellite company, financed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the government. Last year the country launched another 5 of these satellites to be part of a new constellation comprising 34 small satellites including video, infrared and radar satellites as well as high-resolution optical satellites. This year it was announced that Galaxy Space, another Beijing based communications satellite producer is to launch a constellation of small satellites numbering 144 over the next three years. Once these constellations are in place China will have unimaginable surveillance, reconnaissance, cyber and space capabilities.

However, other than installing satellites in space, China has also developed capabilities to destroy those installed by other countries. Since conducting its first Anti-Satellite Test (ASAT) in 2007, the country has come a long way in developing its capabilities. China’s latest developments include the Dong Neng series which was first introduced in 2013. The test of the Dong Neng-2 missile was a great success for China as it achieved an altitude of the near geosynchronous orbit (around 18600 miles) where most of the United States Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance satellites are located. The DN-3, Chinas latest development is an exospheric ballistic missile. It is an upgrade of the DN-2 and China has already conducted multiple successful tests of the same so far. This missile has been designed to ram into satellites and destroy them through high-speed kinetic impact, and could pose a serious threat to any satellites lying in low earth orbit. If China shows further developments in this field it would make leaps and bounds in space technology. However, this is not the only arena in which the country hopes to gain superiority, and the cyberspace has become another area where China has focused its developments.

The fact that China has sought to establish both electronic and technological dominance earlier than others would prove to be critical in its usage of cyber warfare in the future. It is said that cyber warfare will be to the 21st century, what nuclear was to the 20th. This conception of cyber warfare is according to a RAND corporation study and shows how cyber warfare has a much broader significance to national security, ranging into areas beyond the military such as economy, diplomacy and social development. The Chinese defence whitepaper of 2019 and before echoes these views in emphasizing the importance of cyber capabilities, in the face of “war evolving towards informatized and intelligent warfare.” It has thus become apparent, that China has been developing capabilities to be used in cyber warfare. However, suspicion has arisen around the intentions and activities of those possessing these capabilities. China thus poses a threat to a large number of countries, including the United States, India, Japan and members of the European Union.

There is no doubt that other countries have also partaken in cyber-attacks as has been clear from the Stuxnet virus incident or Russian meddling in Ukraine in 2014. However, China’s capabilities may have already surpassed the capabilities of others. In 1997, the Central Military Commission set up a 100 member elite corps in an effort to devise ways of hacking into the computer systems of its adversaries. The PLA has since created the Strategic Support Force in 2015, which has in-fact been touted as being China’s fifth military service, rather than a branch of the PLA. Through this, it has created the capabilities of jamming networks and sensors essential to the operations of the military. Along with this, there have also been instances of cyber espionage, as has been alleged by the United States and others on multiple occasions. These include allegations from Australia, India, and Canada. China has been accused of government and military cyber attacks in which intellectual property has been stolen. However, as of today there is no irrefutable evidence to show that it was indeed China that was involved. Nonetheless, the country's advancements, are cause for concern, especially seeing that it has elevated its warfare to a strategic level by creating the capabilities to conduct cyber-attacks on satellites or space warfare. Even China’s very latest introduction of the 5G network is seen as a highly controversial product and is suspected to possess capabilities which could be essentially destabilizing to other countries.

It is also alleged that China uses state-backed hackers, which are facilitated by the PLA and transformed into cyber warfare units. These hackers are apparently integrated into the PLA under the guise of security experts or software engineers. Along with this China’s biggest civil telecommunication companies are also believed to be integral elements of China’s cyber-espionage system. This includes firms like Huawei and ZTE, which receive preferential funding for research and development. In this, China’s cyber warfare capabilities pose a significant threat to companies and governments alike. Indian officials believed that such attacks have already been used against the country, such as the crash of the Northern India Power grid in 2012, along with the defacing of the web page of the Indian Space Research Organization. More importantly, it is also believed that China has also attacked the Indian military. In 2017, a Sukhoi 30 MKI aircraft crashed on the India-China Border, under highly suspicious circumstances. The inquiry carried out by the Indian Airforce revealed the fact that the aircraft was downed through cyber attacks, for which China is believed to be instrumental. If true, this would seriously negate the reasoning that China is a peaceful country.

Creating Dangerous Challenges for its Adversaries

Along with incursions into outer space and low earth orbit technology, the Chinese military has begun to develop and produce other advanced weapons as well. These developments are a sure cause for concern for China’s adversaries, as many weapon systems are believed to be superior to those possessed by even US or Russia. On the 1st of October 2019, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) presented an impressive procession of new weapon systems, which have showcased exactly how far the Chinese military has reached. This presentation consisted of military equipment, vehicles, and weapons that could present a real challenge to even the armed forces of the US military. If fielded in conflict, these weapons could be the cause of defeat for the US, especially since it would seem that China has been developing weapons to especially counter the US. It currently possesses weapons such as anti-satellite ballistic missiles, along with a first of its kind “aircraft carrier killer” missile. It would seem that the PLA is aware of the fact that the US military is heavily reliant on both its satellites and aircraft carriers in real-time conflicts and wars. However, China has shown to go further than just missiles, and many other developments are also on the table.

The Dongfeng series, literally meaning the ‘East Wind’ series is abbreviated to DF missiles and are a family of short, medium, intermediate, and intercontinental ballistic missiles which have proven to be the most advanced of Chinese missiles in operation today. The DF-26 also known as the Guam killers as they are capable of reaching the US island in the western pacific, are fourth-generation intermediate-range ballistic missiles with improved stability and accuracy. These missile systems which was first fielded in 2016 have dual capabilities, which can deliver both nuclear and conventional warheads, and have a range of approximately 4000 kilometres or 2490 miles. The US Pentagon in its 2019 report estimated the Chinese stockpile to be around 80 DF-26 launchers, and 80 to 160 missiles. These have been sighted at Chinese military bases in Eastern China. However, these are not the most advanced of Chinese missile capabilities, and proved to be only the precursor for what was to follow. In its 70 year anniversary, during the national day parade, three new advanced missiles systems were officially acknowledged. These include the DF-17, DF-100 and DF-41.

The DF-17 had been public knowledge for a while before it was officially announced, and is a solid fuelled road-mobile medium-range ballistic missile. It can also deploy a triangular hypersonic glide vehicle, the DF-ZF. The missile can reach a speed of Mach 5 (6,173km/h) or 5 times the speed of sound, and is believed to be China’s first operational hypersonic weapon system. The design of this missile is unlike other conventional missile systems and cannot be intercepted by anti-ballistic missile detectors, due to its extreme speed and lower altitude trajectory. During the parade last year the PLA also rolled out a regiment of sixteen ten-wheel TEL trucks, each lugging two octagonal launch canisters. These missiles are known as the DF-100 and are believed to be designed especially as “aircraft carrier killer” missiles. The South China Morning Post, in its parade review, stated that “A military insider says the weapon is now in active service. It has a range of about 2000-3000km [1242-1864 miles] and is mainly designed for big targets at sea.” It is obvious that big targets would mean either large warships or aircraft carriers, and the DF 100 is believed to be designed to be a long-range hypersonic ballistic missile capable of destroying the same. 

The biggest threat, however, comes from the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile, which China debuted for the first time once again last year. This missile has a range of up to 9320 miles (15000 kilometres) and is believed to be the longest-range missile in operation which is theoretically capable of striking the continental US within 30 minutes. It is believed that the DF-41 can deploy multiple nuclear warheads and be launched from a mobile truck transporter. The fact that it is mobile also makes it harder to intercept, and destroy as compared to silo-based missiles and poses more challenges than one to China’s adversaries. China has also developed other intercontinental-range missiles, which are launched from submarines. The JL-2 and the JL-3 Submarine-launched ballistic missiles are currently under development and in production. The JL-3 has a reported range of over 9000 kilometres, and is expected to carry multiple independently targetable re-entry warheads.

Along with making incursions into space warfare and missiles, China has also sought to improve its capabilities in the maritime dimension. Along with plans to have either five or six aircraft carriers by the 2030s, it has started the development of other naval vessels and armament as well. This includes the development of JARI, a new combat drone boat which is a water-jet powered Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV), which can reach 42 knots and has a range of around 500 nautical miles. It is equipped with a variable depth array radar system, satellite communications, and a 30mm automatic gun, a vertical launcher unit for surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles, along with two launchers for light torpedoes. This USV can be remotely controlled from either another ship, or navigate alone with the use of artificial intelligence systems. The US does not currently have any combat drone boats and is set to acquire its first in 2020, a year later. In its integration of Artificial intelligence into the military, China has also developed another naval vessel, the HSU-001. This vessel was another military vessel only revealed last October, in its 70-year celebrations. The HSU-001 is China’s first large displacement Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) which is said to be superior to US AUVs, and is likely to bring about a sea-change in naval warfare. It will be used for collecting intelligence, conducting reconnaissance missions, and most importantly, conducting anti-submarine warfare. Though currently unverified, it is also believed that the HSU-001 could be capable of carrying torpedoes to attack.

With the shift away from Chinas policy of biding time, the country is now interested in power projection. Therefore in addition to the highly sophisticated vessels, the People’s Liberation Army Navy has also developed huge amphibious platform/ transport docks and amphibious assault ships. This would be especially essential in enforcing and securing territorial claims in the East, and the South China Sea. Currently, China already possesses 8 of the Type 071 amphibious transport, and has moved onto the production of its Type 075 amphibious assault ships. These vessels which combine the functions of transport docks and aircraft carriers can also deploy hovercrafts, landing crafts, vertical launching fighters and amphibious armoured vehicles. China has quickened the pace of construction for these vehicles, and will even be rolling out its second Type 075 ship being built in Shanghai amid the COVID-19 crisis. Seemingly, the Chinese government's priorities are apparent and not even this crisis which could pose an existential threat has slowed down China’s defence production. It has also been observed that the development of such landing capabilities could pose a serious threat to one specific area of Chinese interest, Taiwan. The Chinese military initially lacked the capability to conduct a large scale amphibious invasion, but not anymore. It has become increasingly clear that China is inching forward slowly, and could indeed very soon surpass most of its adversaries in both military strategy and technological prowess.

Conclusion

The changing global order and the rise of this Asian giant cannot only be viewed in terms of growing military might and technological advancements, but also in the context of other factors. These include the deteriorating Sino-US relationship, the South China Sea disputes, The Sino-Russian rapprochement and an increased military and security presence abroad. There is also another critical factor that must now be placed at the centre of these new changing dynamics, the coronavirus outbreak. A few weeks ago, it seemed like China would suffer the worst of this crisis and most possibly fall into decline. Today, while the rest of the world is going into a free fall crisis, China seems to have the best recovery. While governments in Europe and the US are seeing death-counts rise by the hundreds daily, Wuhan is yet to see a new case in more than a week. It would be pure speculation to call the Coronavirus a creation of the Chinese government, however, it would be more than that to ask whether it can be used as a weapon in the future. Nevertheless, until such instances actually occur they will remain to be mere speculations, akin to controversy theories.

However, while these theories abound internationally, they are seemingly not too far from the truth. Most of Chinas activities have been shrouded in secrecy, and remain to be so. It has therefore proven to be increasingly challenging to discern the exact advances that the Chinese military has made. Not only have a few of China’s advancements taken onlookers by surprise but also, much is unknown about many other programs initiated by the country. Even most of the equipment revealed during China’s 70th-anniversary celebrations such as the DF-41 missiles came as a surprise to many. The country’s submarine, space and cyber programs, which would define China’s strategic and technological prowess in the future, have also not found much transparency. It is assumed that, along with new developments, China has also been upgrading most of its earlier equipment. However, the extents of these upgrades are still unknown.

The lack of transparency regarding these developments would only mean that the true might of the Chinese military has been underestimated by most, and such secrecy is only likely to continue. With China increasing its overseas cooperation and arms affairs abroad, the Chinese military has tightened confidentiality rules. A decree was signed this year by President Xi Jinping to improve confidentiality in all military events, overseas publicity, and exchanges with other militaries. The Chinese government has thus found it essential to conceal most of its activities in secrecy, giving rise to legitimate suspicion by all. This suspicion has existed for long, but during a global crisis, it is bound only to increase. With Washington faltering in the face of the Coronavirus Pandemic, Beijing has found new ways to take advantage of US mistakes. In the end, only one question is to be asked. Will China emerge on top of a new world order, by the end of this global crisis?

((Zeus Hans Mendez is Research Intern with Centre for Security and Strategy Studies,CS3. The views expressed are personal)