As the deadly Corona virus(COVID 19) sweeps the world with breathtaking rapidity, and nations devising strategies suitable and appropriate to them to combat the disease, and death tolls keep on mounting by the day, questions are being asked inside Japan on the way Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is responding to the issue. Though Japan’s tally – around 2,800 cases and 73 deaths at the time of writing – are dwarfed by numbers from the US, Europe and China, new infections continue to set fresh daily records. With Japan capital, Tokyo, recording more than 70 new corona virus infections on March 31 for its highest tally in a single day, pressure is mounting on Abe to order a lock down. Even a minister voiced the urgency of such a measure as a containment strategy has stretched its limit. Even Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike expressed concern over the spike on the numbers.
Many countries, including India, have declared a lockdown with emphasis on social distancing so that transmission is checked. The Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has even gone to the extent of ordering to shoot the violators in order to obtain compliance. More and more countries are seeing compelling reasons to take the lockdown route to fight against the virus. Vietnam declared a two-week nationwide lockdown and advised people not to gather in groups of more than two people.
As the numbers of COVID-19 cases surge across the country, the nation finds itself on the brink of a state of emergency. The Tokyo metropolitan government decided to extend the suspension of about 250 schools, including metropolitan high schools and combined junior high and high schools as an immediate countermeasure until May 6, the last day of the Golden Week period. Municipal elementary and junior high schools and private schools in the capital were also asked to cooperate and take similar measures. Though zoos, museums and other facilities, including the famous Ueno Zoo, have been closed till 6 May, these measures are not enough.
Abe probably drew some lessons from British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was obliged to switch to running the country from isolation after testing positive for the virus and attended meetings with his second-in-command Taro Aso sitting at a distance and wearing masks, representing the underlying importance of social distancing. Though the situation is acknowledged to have been precarious, the political leadership in Japan still sees the necessity of a national emergency, necessitating a lockdown. Still, there have been speculations in Japan that a lock down could happen as soon as the number of cases surge.
Earlier, Japan and Olympic authorities gave in to pressure from athletes and sporting bodies worldwide, to delay Tokyo 2020 Summer Games for a year. As a consequence, speculation about a lockdown rose. Some businesses started to curtail operations ahead of a lockdown. Department store operator Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd closed six stores in Tokyo on weekends through April 12. Koshidaka Holdings, an operator of karaoke and hot spring outlets, closed 200 outlets until April 13.
A lock down process is not the same in Japan, as it is in other countries. In India, for example, like the sudden demonetisation announcement in November 2016, Prime Minister Modi declared lockdown of the entire country for three weeks until April 14. In Japan, existing laws limit local authorities to only request people to stay at home. This is also not binding. But if Abe declares a state of emergency, it would allow authorities to trigger a lockdown. Restrictions on movement mandated under such a lockdown would be voluntary, rather than legally binding. In view of the unfolding grim picture, persuasive voices are being heard in many quarters that Abe should declare an emergency before it is too late.
Abe realises that the development of medicines and vaccines is crucial to contain the virus. Japan intends to promote clinical research on an anti-flu medicine called Favipiravir with other countries, as a treatment. The drug, known as Avigan, was developed by Fujifilm Holdings Corp, and Abe is focusing on this as a remedy. Japan is already teetering on the verge of recession. The mood of the country’s industrial manufacturers paints the most pessimistic picture.
Presently, the emphasis is on Prefecture-wise control measures. Japanese people generally obey requests made on televisions to stay indoors, and not venture out. This, however, did not deter many to venture out to enjoy viewing sakura and hanami party, an annual festival-like event, at this time of the year. Though the country is on the brink of a state of emergency, it is not yet at the stage of officially declaring one. Though calls for a lockdown are on the rise, the government has remained indecisive, compared to other nations.
The Abe administration seems to have failed in reaching out to the people with correct information, giving rise to speculation and harmful rumours. The lockdown rumour in late March that went viral on the internet triggered frenzied shopping and hoarding of essentials. Official information released on ad-hoc basis has been incomplete and ambiguous, without any indication of exactly how the authorities intend to deal with the situation. People suspect that the government is withholding vital information. People did not appreciate that the government abruptly announced the Olympic Games’ postponement without elaboration, and therefore see government’s handling of the Corona virus in the same prism.
As pressure mounted, the government announced that from April 3, all travellers to Japan, including Japanese, should self-isolate for two weeks and avoid public transportation, to prevent the further spread of corona virus infections. This decision reached on April 1, in an emergency ministerial-level meeting of the National Security Council, seems to have come too late. The government also bans foreigners from 49 countries and regions, including the US, China, South Korea, and most parts of Europe, starting on April 3, bringing the total to 73. Non-Japanese travellers from countries or territories on the banned list will only be allowed into Japan under special circumstances.
Starting from April 3, permanent residents and spouses of Japanese will be barred from entry. Japanese can return from abroad, but they will be required to undergo a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test to check for novel corona virus infections, in addition to being asked for self-isolation for 14 days. The government will also invalidate visas issued by April 2 and suspend visa exemptions for travellers from all countries that are not on the no-entry list.
For the present, Abe has ruled out a French-style lockdown, even if a state of emergency is declared. When the French government declared a lockdown, the citizens came under curfew and violators were punished with unusually strong measures, even when their personal freedoms were limited. Though the Diet passed a revision to a special measures law on March 13, allowing the government a freer hand to deal with the corona virus outbreak and allowing Abe to declare a state of emergency based on the revised law, governors can only ask their residents to stay inside their homes. But such requests would have no legal force.
Economy Minister Yasuoshi Nishimura clarified that the revised law does not allow the government to enforce lockdowns. It limits the government role to regulate traffic allowing it to seal off access to a place that needed to be sanitised. Health Minister Katsunobu Kato clarified that these measures have different purpose and not for a lockdown.
Yet, the people in general, and places such as urban bars and nightclubs responded to the requests of the government and limited movement outside their homes and places. When customers vanished from bars and restaurants, it caused a major financial blow to such businesses. Abe categorically rejected compensating such bars and nightclubs for their losses, saying that his government had no plans to provide direct compensation for individual losses, though he promised support if they kept their businesses running and maintained employment. In contrast, he promised to provide support to the airline industry, which suffered a huge hit from the pandemic.
Though Abe’s popularity in Japan has received a dent because of what was perceived as inapt handling of the corona virus pandemic, there were also those who endorsed his policies. After the initial criticism, support swung in his favour as Japan appeared to “flatter its curveâ€, better than most countries. With a large number of old people belonging to the vulnerable segment in a population of nearly 127 million, the number of deaths – 73 at the time of writing – has been significantly fewer than in China, the US, Italy, Iran, Spain, France and even the UK and South Korea.
Would Abe’s handling of the crisis go in favour of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and to his potential successor? The answer could be both Yes and No. Yes, if Abe handles the crisis in a way that is perceived by the people as the work of a master leader, and No, if the virus spreads further, leaving a dent on Abe’s leadership. In the later case, the political fortune of Health Minister Katsunobu Kato, touted as a possible successor to Abe, would have been rendered dim.
In the foreign policy realm, it is too early to say if Abe’s handling of the virus contributed to better understanding with friendly countries. Though the virus originated in China and spread to Japan and across the world, to as many as 179 countries, there was a perception in Japan that had Beijing acted fast, the virus could not have travelled with the ferocity as it has now. Japan’s tourism industry, dependent much on visitors from China, was badly hit by travel curbs. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s scheduled visit to Japan too, was postponed. However, unlike Trump, Abe was not too critical of China for spreading the virus. Trump went to the extent of terming the virus as “Chinese virus†or “Wuhan virusâ€, annoying the Chinese. Beijing lost no time in retaliating by cracking down on American journalists, asking them to leave China.
Interestingly, the spread of corona virus provide with an opportunity for both Japan and China to forge friendship, forgetting historical irritants and strategic issues where both have divergent opinions. Barring stray incidents in Japan showing disapproval of Chinese behaviour, the official reaction to the virus outbreak in Wuhan was one of sympathy. This feeling was shown in the form of Diet members donating a portion of their March salaries to China’s fight against COVID-19. Also, the Japanese government, NGOs, and companies, donated masks, gloves, protective suits, eye wear, thermometers and hand sanitizers. In response to this gesture, China vowed to reciprocate Japan’s “friendship and mutual trustâ€.
The mutual help and admiration towards each other for the goodwill provided a silver lining in their bilateral relationship, at a time when the world battles the biggest challenge in this century. The unexpected charity by both towards the other endeared the people in both the countries. When the Diamond Princess was quarantined, and despite facing flaks in handing the case, Chinese billionaire Jack Ma donated a million masks to Japan. Huawei too donated masks to a university hospital in Nagoya that treated Chinese passengers on the Diamond Princess. Seen from the dimension of turbulent geopolitics of Asia, Abe’s dealing with Japan’s “intimate rival†helped his image of being “an international consensus-builderâ€.
In the immediate aftermath, however, the challenge to combating the virus remains crucial. The WHO has urged countries across the world to take steps to “push down†the coronavirus, which is “far from over†in Asia. Even as cases of respiratory infection continue to surge, no one knows how long the pandemic would last. Meanwhile, debates on Abe announcing a lockdown in Japan or not continues.
(Professor Rajaram Panda, a leading scholar on Indo-Pacific affairs, is currently a Lok Sabha Research Fellow, Parliament of India, and a Member of Governing Council, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. E-mail: rajaram.panda@gmail.com)