Why does India need a third aircraft carrier?
The Navy Chief Admiral Karambir Singh announced on 3rd December 2020, that the marine forces are planning to procure six more submarines and pitched for the third aircraft carrier. The Indian navy sees a third aircraft carrier as an absolute necessity to defend the national interests in the maritime domain. At present, India has one operational aircraft carrier, that is, 45,000-tonne INS Vikramaditya, the refurbished decommissioned Russian Admiral Gorshkov acquired in November 2013. The lone aircraft carrier is equipped with a short-take off barrier arrested-recovery design.
Indigenous built 37,000-tonne INS Vikrant which is currently under-going construction, is also of same composition but the air wing is smaller as compared to its predecessor. The sea trials are expected to be conducted early this year, and it is anticipated to be fully operational by 2022.
A third aircraft carrier is required so that at any given point of time, there are at least two operational carriers with one deployed at the eastern seaboard and the other at the western seaboard while the third carrier undergoes maintenance, repair etc. Admiral Karambir Singh has been pushing the government for the third aircraft carrier, especially after the PLA-navy has increased its patrolling in the Indian Ocean.
The slowing economy has brought the navy to a conundrum between building submarines or aircraft carriers. The proposed 65,000-ton aircraft carrier Vishal may not come to fruition due to cost issues. The argument that the Indian navy needs to choose between the aircraft carrier and the submarine is flawed as they are built for different purposes. For instance, submarines are used for sea denial while the aircraft carriers are deployed for sea control and projecting power. A powerful navy requires both submarines as well as aircraft carriers to deter adversaries.
The cost to build the third aircraft carrier would be exorbitantly high, for example, INS Vishal is expected to cost around $7 billion and around $5-8 billion for the fighter jets, helicopters, and surveillance aircrafts. Aircraft carriers hold significant advantage over shore or island-based aircrafts since they would be able to circumnavigate the entire Indian ocean.
The rancorous affair of INS Vikramaditya displays how expensive it is to build an aircraft carrier. For instance, the initial price of $974 million was increased to $2.35 billion and with the addition of 45 MiG-29K aircrafts, the final cost sits around $6 to $7 billion. The encounter with the indigenously built INS Vikrant was indistinguishable from its antecedent as the total cost for the second aircraft carrier is higher at around $10 to $11 billion. The third proposed aircraft carrier would cost $6 to $8 billion, with the inclusion of Rafale aircrafts, the total expense would be $16 to $17 billion.
General Bipin Rawat’s priority falls over the army and the air force due to budget constraints. An urgent requirement for the army is infantry weapons, artillery, and strike corps modernization. The air force squadron strength has dwindled to 32, well below the minimum operational requirement of 42 squadrons. He opined that the navy’s role is defensive and as a result, they should focus on expanding the submarine fleet.
With China expanding at a rapid pace, it is necessary for India to build the third aircraft carrier. Since the two aircraft carriers are also ski-jump carriers with a short take off, they do not have the capability to launch heavier platforms such as the airborne early warning aircraft. Considering INS Vishal would be a flat-top carrier with catapult assisted take off, it could have significant air component with the capacity to hold 70-80 aircrafts including helicopters as well as early warning aircraft. The flat-top carrier INS Vishal would bolster the strike capability and reach of the marine forces. As far as cost is concerned, the fact remains it would be spread over 10 to 14 years.
Aircraft carriers come equipped with their missile-defence systems as well as aircrafts to protect them from incoming bombers. They will enable the marine forces to not only project power but also allow sea control. Since the aircraft carriers can be at sea for long periods of time, they would permit the navy to conduct anti-piracy operations as well as interdiction of rogue proliferators. Aircraft carriers facilitate soft power projections through humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations. India’s 1200 island territories would be best protected by an aviation cruiser rather than island-based aircrafts.
The PLA-navy already has two operational aircraft carriers, with the third under construction and plans to have four by 2028, with the end goal of operating 10 aircraft carriers by 2049. With Beijing expanding through the Djibouti naval base and development of Gwadar port coupled with nuclear powered submarines deployed regularly since 2014, New Delhi cannot afford to not build INS Vishal. Another factor which necessitates the proposal to build the third aircraft carrier is that 90 percent of India’s trade by volume and 70 percent by value transits through the sea. Keeping both the factors in mind, India would need to become a multi-carrier navy to protect its strategic interests across the region including the Sea Lines of Communication.
Construction of INS Vishal would not only be beneficial for India’s security, but it would also empower the government to push for indigenization in the defence sector through creation of massive job opportunities, providing business to the local industries and last but not the least, aid in cutting down the enormous cost which comes with building an aircraft carrier.
(Source- http://164.100.47.193/lsscommittee/Defence/17_Defence_6.pdf)
The Standing committee report on Defence spending of 2019-20 found that the projected capital budget and the allocation amount seem far apart. The table given above clearly displays that the projection has increased steadily from 26268 crores in 2015-16 to 37,220 crores in 2019-20. However, the allocated budget remains stagnant for example the allocated budget was 25,003 crores in 2015-16 and 23,156 crores in 2019-20. The committee rightly pointed out the axiomatic fact that the union government needs to issue more funds towards the capital budget. The administered budget is about 60 percent of the forecast which is insufficient as the navy plays an important role in international diplomacy, security, the blue economy, as well as in protecting India’s trade interests.
As far as the argument that the focus should be on building submarines is concerned, the final report provided to the parliament clearly communicated that 24 indigenous built submarines were to be inducted by 2030 under the 30 years long-term plan approved in 1999. Under phase I of the plan, six submarines of Scorpene class are being constructed at Mazagon Dock Limited, this project was enacted by the defence acquisition council on 31 May 2017. Two indigenous built submarines have already been commissioned namely INS Kalvari and Khandari in 2017 and 2019, respectively.
The remaining four submarines would be inducted every nine months, with the final submarine to be delivered by June 2022. Under phase II, 12 submarines would be built which will be enlisted into the navy between 2027 and 2032. Although the submarines are in short supply compared to the demand, as conveyed by the naval representative to the committee, there are enough actions available to ensure that the gap is plugged.
(Source- http://164.100.47.193/lsscommittee/Defence/17_Defence_6.pdf)
The $5 trillion economy vision was launched in 2018 and India looked set to achieve the target by 2025, but the graph above clearly expresses that the pandemic disrupted the economy. However, as per the current trends, India would be able to achieve the 5 trillion status by 2027-28, since INS Vishal would not be commissioned until 2030 and given the certainty that submarine shortfall would be plugged in due time, the government should focus on building the third aircraft carrier.
END NOTES
1) https://www.firstpost.com/india/navy-chief-strongly-pitches-for-third-aircraft-carrier-says-india-will-soon-procure-six-more-submarines-other-assets-9078621.html
2) https://eurasiantimes.com/indian-navy-wants-three-aircraft-carriers-to-counter-china-will-modi-government-concede-to-demands/
3) https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/future-of-indian-defence-and-the-role-of-aircraft-carriers-67501/
4) https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/third-aircraft-carrier-india-budget-versus-necessity
5) https://eurasiantimes.com/indias-navy-day-exposed-the-schism-between-chiefs-of-navy-and-defense-staff/
6) http://164.100.47.193/lsscommittee/Defence/17_Defence_6.pdf
7) https://idsa.in/issuebrief/aircraft-carriers-india-maritime-security-rthomas-301019
8) https://pib.gov.in/Pressreleaseshare.aspx?PRID=1549454
9) https://www.naval-technology.com/projects/ins-vikramaditya-aircraft-carrier/
10) https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/economy/covid-19-impact-pushes-india-s-5-trillion-dream-3-yrs-farther-72373
Pic courtesy- Twitter handle ??????@Rakshuk_HR16
(The views expressed are personal.)
