Turkey and Russia in Balkans-Regaining the lost space
The article talks about how Turkey is trying to regain authority it once held in Balkans under the aegis of the Ottoman Empire for six centuries, from the 14th century till the end of the First World War. Present day-Russia, which used to have authority over the Balkans during its heydays as the Soviet Union in the cold war era also seeks to preserve power in the region. The resolution of tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan n also exposed the fault lines of dominance between Russia and Turkey to dominate the strategic space.
Turkey:
Balkans has been a priority owing to political, cultural, economic ties as well as from geographical perspective. The four main axes of Ankara’s policy towards the Balkans are ensuring high level political dialogue, security for all, economic integration and safeguarding the multi-ethnic social structures. The republic desires to extend cooperation by working together on issues of common interests as well as through regional integration. Relationship with Balkan countries is significant as disruption in the neighbourhood would directly affect it.
Its stronghold in the region has been expanded through the creation of Southeast European Cooperation Process (SEECP) which was launched in 1996 at the foreign ministers meeting at Sofia in Bulgaria. The objective is to enhance security and political cooperation, promoting economic cooperation, justice and combating illegal activities. The chairmanship runs for one year and currently Turkey is the helm. Regional Cooperation Council (RCC) which is the operational arm of SEECP has the task of developing regional cooperation, and along with it, integrate the region into the European and Euro-Atlantic organisations. It is the founding member of both the SEECP and RCC, contributes considerable material resources to the budget and chip in joint regional projects.
Turkish President Erdogan has positioned himself as the leader of the Islamic world, naturally sees Balkans as the region where Ankara could play an important role as Muslims constitute majority of the population in Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia, and Herzegovina, coupled with the fact that it has about 17 million Muslims at home. Ankara regularly deploys its military for NATO operations and has also sent forces to Kosovo, Bosnia, and Herzegovina to serve with the international security force.
In the 1990s, Ankara’s policy was directed towards ethnically and religiously close countries, but in today’s age it has not limited itself to those countries and is set to cover all the nations in the peninsula which signals aspirations for regional leadership. The renewed attention towards the Balkans may indicate that it is reminiscent of its past but, it would not be able to relieve its glory days as that is far beyond the resources and capacity the country can muster.
The region is the perfect opportunity for President Erdogan to make his case for Islamic leadership in Europe, as well as the Middle East. Ankara’s forays into the Balkans are not limited to the appeasement of Muslims but goes further with aspirations to become a regional leader. For example, the Turkish President was welcomed in Serbia, which is a majority non-Muslim nation as of October 2017. Also, Bulgaria and Serbia with minority Muslim populations have expressed delight in hosting the extension of the Turk stream gas pipeline which runs from Russian coast across the Black sea to the Turkish coast.
Turkey has employed the leadership-oriented models to expand its influence in the region as the Union of International Democrats (UID) which is the long-arm of the justice and development party, through which Ankara has started its propaganda in Europe. For instance, the Bosnian branch of UID has supported Bakir Izetbegovic who was the 6th member of the Bosnia & Herzegovina Presidency from 2010 to 2018. President Erdogan has employed a network of relations to not only get closer to Balkan leaders but also to enlarge Ankara’s foothold in the region. All the actions mentioned above clearly indicate that the Southeastern European country is working hard to gain regional leadership and salvage its influence in the neighbourhood.
Russia:
President Putin’s administration is working in southeast Europe with an aim to delay the region’s incorporation into Western institutions such as European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It has utilized the historical, cultural, and religious ties to deepen trade relations on the one hand and create political and economic dependence on the other. The Kremlin is employed to nurture far-right groups and authoritarian politicians through funding as well as public-relations support which would make it harder for these countries to enter either the EU or NATO.
The geographical proximity of the Balkans to the black sea provides Russia with access to warm-water ports and it has been the principal reason to engage in the area. Also, as it is the last region of the great Soviet empire which has not been fully amalgamated into the Western institutions yet, so by hindering Western attempts it is working to at least salvage a small proportion of the Soviet Union. In addition to that, it also serves to distract attention from other areas such as military buildup in Sea of Azov, aggression in Kerch strait etc.
By sustaining its foothold in Balkans, Russia hopes to strike back in Europe’s neighbourhood as the Westerners are meddling in Moscow’s traditional sphere of influence like Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine by attempting to bring them in EU and NATO. Active involvement also gives it a say in European security issues such as NATO expansion, Serbia-Kosovo talks or in Bosnia-Herzegovina which would ensure the federation’s ranking as a top tier power in Eastern Europe.
Co-optation and subversion have been brought into play to preserve supremacy in the southeastern sector. For example, Russia has built alliances and partnerships with locals in Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina which allows it to regulate the politics there. Disinformation campaign, covert support for anti-Westerners, for instance Montenegro’s blocking NATO expansion in 2015-16 and North Macedonia in 2017-18 where internal crisis was employed to prevent accession into NATO, thus salvaging the two countries from falling into Western hands. Russia has continuously used Western policy weaknesses to thwart their attempt at expansion.
Moscow would not be able to directly control the countries due to two main factors. The first factor is that Russia and the Balkan countries are geographically distant, so even if they wanted, they would not be able to able to directly shape the region. The second factor is that the material wherewithal is not enormous enough for it to be able to spend resources there for example today Russia’s GDP is comparable to Spain, and it is not the great power in Europe which it once was.
Russia is an extra-regional actor in the region, which implies that nothing would directly affect it and the strategies employed confirms the same. For instance, co-optation and subversion strategies have been implemented which are relatively low cost. Priority would fall on the neighbourhood as instability in those countries would directly affect it for example Russia intervened militarily in Georgia when violence occurred in South Ossetia as it considered the region under its sphere of influence.
So, Russia’s strategy vis-à-vis- Balkans is to use minimum resources while ensuring that the countries do not fall in Western hands. Losing Balkans would be a disaster as it would allow the Europeans and Americans to encircle Russia economically through expansion of EU market and militarily through NATO augmentation.
Conclusion:
Turkey being the regional actor has used variety of strategies to gain influence in the Balkans through official as well as unofficial channels. For instance, the administration under President Erdogan has used its status as the founding member of the SCEEP and RCC to not only enable these countries to become part of Euro-Atlantic institutions but to also elevate Ankara’s standing in the region. Network of relations with Balkan leaders as well as Union of International Democrats to spread its propaganda across the region.
Russia, being the extra-regional actor, does not directly shape the region, but it is riveted in ensuring that these countries should not fall in Western hands. It has availed low-cost strategies such as co-optation and subversion under the Putin administration given the resource constraints as despite being the largest country, the economy is not big as it was in the Soviet era. For instance, little Russia’s economy is comparable to Spain, who does not influence EU politics like Germany and France.
End Notes
1)http://www.mfa.gov.tr/relations-with-the-balkan-region.en.mfa
2)https://www.rcc.int/pages/111/south-east-european-cooperation-process--seecp
3)https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/07/06/turkey-in-the-balkans-a-march-westward/
4)https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/turkeys-policy-balkans-more-neo-ottomanism-22835
5)http://turkishpolicy.com/article/982/the-role-of-leadership-networks-in-turkey%E2%80%93balkan-relations-in-the-akp-era
6)https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/02/06/russia-s-game-in-balkans-pub-78235
7)https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-strategic-interests-and-tools-of-influence-in-the-western-balkans/
8)https://www.loc.gov/law/help/legal-aspects-of-war/russian-georgia-war.php
9)https://russiancouncil.ru/en/russia-balkans#1
Pic Courtesy- Alexander Smagin at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are that of the author and do not represent the views of CESCUBE.)
