The war under the Oceans of Indo-Pacific: China and the Quad

These helped the US gain an edge over its rivalries, and maintain a dominance that has been surviving to date. Fast forward to the present times where the increase in Chinese aggression has been a cause of concern for every nation alike, and especially the Indo-Pacific. Regional group Quad whose members- Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, often dubbed as the “Asian NATO”, are obsessed with its agenda of maritime cooperation given the delicacy of the region. Therefore, they have been strategizing and pooling resources to combat the Chinese threat on all fronts. Underwater warfare has advantages on many grounds as submarines can be placed anywhere in the vast sea, however, they are at risk of detection due to their noise but advancing technologies are rectifying this loophole successfully.

Throughout the last couple of decades, China has worked religiously to improve and upgrade every bit of its naval capabilities. Apart from increasing its warships, and deploying them all around the region, it has also worked to built artificial islands that would work as military bases during a full-blown war in the waters. It has managed to elevate its position from a mere aspirational state to a neck-to-neck competitor of the United States. The war underwater largely depends upon the kind of submarines deployed. They are the deciding factors as unlike land, or sky, the human reach is limited. At present, two Quad members, Japan and the U.S. have the technology to make submarines on their own, a feat they share with their rival China. Although the U.S. nuclear-powered submarines remain unmatched, their hegemony has come in the direct attack by the Chinese. People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has carved out goals that include the use of AI and unmanned systems to advance their submarines and technology. The set target for this modernization of PLA is 2035. Moreover, it has been following the footprints of its rival but at a faster and smarter pace and is investing in undersea cable infrastructure as well.

These advances by China have compelled its regional states to buckle up, especially India and Japan, which has been in a constant tussle with China over borders and islands. India started its submarine operation in 1967, and at present has 15 submarines, of which two are nuclear powered. (INS Chakra and INS Arihant). Furthermore, it is engaged to build six  submarines(P-75I project) domestically along with building Scorpene-class submarines with the help of French shipbuilders. Likewise, Japan has been on its toes since forever and has a soundtrack record when it comes to submarines. It announced in its “National Defense Program Guidelines for 2019 and Beyond” that its Maritime Self Defense Force would retain 22 diesel-type manned submarines. Moreover, it has been at the forefront of developing Unmanned Undersea Vehicles (UUVs) and is extending this technical support to its allies.

The last link in the QUAD grouping is Australia. Its submarines suffered initially from technical glitches, and design problems that came in way of its smooth operation. However, it managed to join the bandwagon just in time by modernizing them and started an indigenous construction program in collaboration with the Naval Group of France.

QUAD members have been dealing with the Chinese threat both on an individual and collective level by pooling together the best of their technologies, and resources. This has created a level playing field to some extent but the deciding factor, and/or the game-changer of this battle remains “the incorporation of artificial intelligence” in naval forces. There are no two ways about the fact that AI is the future of warfare, but at what speed countries acquire and implement it remains the query of larger research and worry.

Countries are working to install autonomous submarines and missile systems that would cut down the crew and increase the efficiency of warfare. However, with QUAD there remains a legal and ethical concern on using lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) since these democracies will need to look at its impact, and how best they can trust technology. On the contrary, China is an authoritarian state that completely overlooks these ethical and legal considerations and is ahead of its peers in following the trail of development. This shifts the power quo to the advantage of China, but the United States is adamant about not giving China any lead. It has already started operating a mixed fleet that runs partially on the crew and autonomous vessels. It is working on advanced capabilities unmanned surface vehicles like the Sea Hunter and the “Orca” (XLUUV).

Following a similar trajectory, the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) has come up with “remote and autonomous systems-artificial intelligence” (RAS-AI) that aims to incorporate these advancements by 2040. China has been eyeing these developments by QUAD members and has been working on making a replica of the US Sea Hunter with a greater displacement capacity. Moreover, recently China displayed HSU-001 Large Displacement UUV at a parade, which is designed to carry unattended sensors or mines.

These development on the Chinese part are a part of its larger strategy of A2/AD (anti-access and anti-denial), which would create a humungous wall underwater and would curtail US intervention in the waters. This combination of UUV and USV on and below the waves would operate autonomously using AI and would tackle an adversary that tries to pierce through the location of Chinese warships. The game is not only limited to better technology but has numbers included as well. China has overtaken US Navy in terms of numbers with 350 ships and submarines deployed whereas the US has 293 only.

The ultimate deciding factors come down to three major aspects: numbers, technology, and pace. Numbers give a quantitative edge to a nation and helps in covering a larger area without any compromise. Technology is a complementary and qualitative factor of these numbers. The incorporation of modern technologies, and artificial intelligence helps in increasing the outcome and efficiency while bringing down operational costs. Lastly, the pace at which the countries respond to these adversaries matters. For instance, Australia's RAS-AI Strategy has given a 20-year timeline, it then has to ensure that it keeps being constantly ahead of its adversary that is China, which has a shorter timeline and better follow-ups. Nevertheless, advancement in AI has ensured a greater reliance on UVVs that cuts down on crews and saves human lives. This depopulates the maritime battlespaces and lets robots take over human wars.

To conclude, history has it that victor always had the hand of technology in its win. The United States and the Soviet Union were in a cut-throat competition throughout the Cold War years, but it was detection technology (SOSUS) that nudged the United States to victory. Though, its dominance has come down following the rise of China, and other states like Australia, Japan, and India. The latter three remain an ally of its in the grouping called QUAD to counter the Chinese aggression that has been mushrooming by leaps and bounds. While the countries are in this chase, it will be the timely and effective installation of Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) that would be the deciding point. The QUAD being committed to counter China’s rise is determined to pool resources and share technology to help facilitate on-time delivery of actions. The future of underwater warfare has a lot in store, especially concerning the use of technology.

References

1)      Bloomberg Opinion, “Four Ways a China-U.S. War at Sea Could Play Out”( April 26, 2020). U.S. China Sea War Could Spread to Japan, Australia, India - Bloomberg

2)     Council on Foreign Relations, “The Quad in the Indo-Pacific: What to Know”( May 27, 2020) The Quad in the Indo-Pacific: What to Know | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

3)     FINS Journal of Diplomacy & Strategy, “Indo – Pacific Quad: Beyond Geo-Strategic Construct and Confluence of Two Seas” (April 29, 2020) Indo – Pacific Quad: Beyond Geo-Strategic Construct and Confluence of Two Seas - (finsindia.org)

4)     Indo-Pacific Defense Forum, “Australia’s Role in the Indo-Pacific” (November 11, 2019) Australia’s Role in the Indo-Pacific | Indo-Pacific Defense Forum (ipdefenseforum.com)

5)     ORF, “Robots at war: The future for autonomous systems at sea in the Indo-Pacific” (March 24, 2021) Robots at war: The future for autonomous systems at sea in the Indo-Pacific | ORF (orfonline.org)

6)     Australian Strategic Policy Institute, “Nuclear-armed submarines and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific’’ (May 14, 2020) Nuclear-armed submarines and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

7)     Action and Defense Universe, “Submarines in the INDO-PACIFIC define naval force development in the region” (December 8, 2020) Submarines in the INDO-PACIFIC define naval force development (aviation-defence-universe.com)

8)     Submarines Institute of Australia, “Submarine Safety Measures in the Indo-Pacific An Australian Perspective” (2018) 20180201-submarine-safety-measures-in-the-indo-pacific.pdf (submarineinstitute.com)

9)     The Diplomat, “H.I. Sutton on the Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Region” (January 22, 2020) H.I. Sutton on the Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific Region – The Diplomat

10)  Nikkei Asia, “Indo-Pacific: The front line of US and China next-gen submarines” ( June 9, 2021) Indo-Pacific: The front line of US and China next-gen submarines - Nikkei Asia

11)    The Diplomat, “The Chinese Submarine Threat” (December 10, 2015) The Chinese Submarine Threat – The Diplomat

12)   Naval News, “New Intelligence: Chinese Copy Of US Navy’s Sea Hunter USV” (September 25, 2020) New Intelligence: Chinese Copy Of US Navy's Sea Hunter USV - Naval News

13)   Popular Science, “The Great Underwater Wall Of Robots: Chinese Exhibit Shows Off Sea Drones” (June 22, 2016) The Great Underwater Wall Of Robots: Chinese Exhibit Shows Off Sea Drones (popsci.com)

14)  S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, “The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: Towards an Indo – Pacific Order?” (2019) PR190909_The-Quadrilateral-Security-Dialogue.pdf (rsis.edu.sg)

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(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views OF CESCUBE.)