The New Nepali Government and its Foreign Policy
Nepal's newly appointed Prime Minister, Sher Bahadur Dueba has come to the power for the fifth time in past 26 years. He has a mammoth task ahead of him - he not only has to bring political stability in his country but also has to deal with the big powers in the neighborhood.
After the Supreme Court reinstated the Lower House (House of Representatives) after it was dissolved by the previous Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Oli, it also appointed a new Prime Minister - Sher Bahadur Dueba. Khadga Prasad Oli was running a caretaker government which has now been replaced by the Dueba's government. Nepal has been witnessing political turbulence from past 2 years. Dueba is tasked with not only bringing in stability but also balancing the big powers like India, China and USA. The Prime Minister is leading a coalition government which is fragile as the parties have different views on foreign policy. One of the first tasks of Dueba government will be to come on a common page and forge a consensus on how to formulate the foreign policy itself. For that the two political parties and its leaders have to work hard.
Dueba's coalition partner is Communist part of Nepal (Maoist Centre) which is led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal (also known as Prachanda). Both Dueba and Dahal have conflicting views on US's $500 million grant assistance under the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) which is still pending. While Dahal wants to amend some of the clauses of MCC should be amended, Dueba is of the view that MCC should be endorsed immediately as it a grant with no hidden agenda. In order to endorse and implement MCC, Dueba needs Dahal on board. The United States on the other hand is ready to give more information on certain provisions but it would not be able to amend the already signed contract. MCC has been waiting for approval since 2019 but there has been no progress whatsoever. The standoff between two parties coupled with misinformation campaign and rumors about MCC has led to a delay in the decision making. Even Chinese media has been throwing mud on the MCC campaign which also has to do something with the Communist parties of Nepal rejecting the MCC. But despite the delay in MCC, it can be said that US and Nepal relations will continue to be cordial. U.S Ambassador was the first ambassadors who congratulated Dueba on his appointment as the Prime Minister of the country. Similarly, U.S State Secretary Antony Blinken, upon his arrival in India contacted Dueba to talk about various bilateral issues ensuring that the bilateral relations continue to be cordial.
Dueba and Dahal have divergent views on issues related to China and India. In a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Dahal said that Nepal disapproves of the U.S - Indo Pacific strategy. Nepali Congress and the Maoists also differ on taking loans to build infrastructure. While Deuba has advocated for balancing the neighboring foreign powers, he has highlighted that European Union and U.S continues to remain a foreign policy priority.
Like any other Prime Minister of Nepal, Dueba will have to craft a smart plan to strike a balance between China and India. India expects a continuation of its special relations with Nepal and is always suspicious about Nepali engagement with China. China on the other hand has left no stone unturned to increase its influence. in Nepal. It has increased its political, military and economic influence in Nepal, which has made India wary due to growing border tensions.
Nepal also has to bilateral relations to maintain and make decisions when it comes to both India and China. On China front, Dueba will have the pressure to select which projects fall under the BRI. Even though Nepal has joined BRI in 2017, there has been a lot of postponement of projects under it. Dahal wants a quick decision on this matter which is yet not happened. Similarly, Dueba will have to glance at the border tensions between India and Nepal. In 2020, Nepal released a new political map of Nepal asserting claim on Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura. India has raised objections over this and has communicated that it wants to resolve the issue via a dialogue. Dueba is under public pressure to solve this issue as it has escalated into an electoral problem which might impact his office position.
Apart from balancing the powers, the Nepali economy has been hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to bolster the economy, Nepal desperately needs foreign aid assistance. While China has invested in Nepal, its debt diplomacy is not a new phenomenon and Dueba government wants to move away from it. It is trying to reach out to its traditional partners like United States and European Union to seek aid. Another challenge in Dueba's kitty is to increase the purchase of vaccines to safeguard his people from the ongoing pandemic. Nepal has purchased vaccines from China (4 million) and India (2 million) while has received vaccines as aid from Japan (1.5 million) Bhutan (2 lakh), India (1.1 million), United States (1.5 million) and COVAX (348000). Yet, the doses are insufficient to meet the demand of Nepal's 30 million people. Nepal is planning to purchase more doses from China and United States.
Nepal is caught in midst of geo-political rivalry between India-China and United States-China. Their lack of trust and the race to secure power in the region has led to huge shifts in the geopolitics of the region. One thing is for sure - out that Dueba no longer has the freedom to conduct his foreign policy on the basis of nationalism like the previous government did. The foreign policy needs to be curated smartly by Nepal - keeping its interests in mind. Dueba's foremost challenge is to deal with the disagreements within his own government if he wants to continue being the Prime Minister. Second, he needs to deal with the geopolitical challenges and rivalry through cooperation and consensus making from immediate neighbors, international donor communities for economic transformation which the country needs. Third, Dueba needs to keep under consideration that the foreign policy needs to be non-aligned as taking sides will not reap any benefits to the country. Dueba might be one of the very few Prime Minster of the country, if he follows the non-aligned foreign policy. But doing this might be difficult for a small Himalayan nation like Nepal. It will be an uphill battle for Nepal to maintain it international relations amidst the growing border tensons, raging pandemic and growing geopolitical rivalry.
Pic Courtesy-Raimond Klavins at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
