Does the US need to be concerned over China’s military?
International Politics have always been a fancy tale of the power competition among the super powers. Although, deep mining of the ‘International Politics’ literature illustrates us about the difference between the two powers, the one is that dominates on the global scale while the other prepares to dethrone the reigning power. This spirals up into the vicious rivalry that we have witnessed in case of USA and USSR during cold war era and again the clouds of the most interesting phenomenon of world politics started to covering the world. China, already an economic powerhouse, started to send tremors to USA with his quintessential rise in military power, which is underlined by Pentagon report to congress in 2020. The report circled around the Chinese military power and its role in China’s broader foreign policy.
The report assessment suggests contours of China’s national strategy, its approach to security and military affairs and potential changes in the PRC’s armed forces over the next 20 years. China’s military was in 2000, though sizable, but mostly archaic in nature which lacked any coherence with national strategy and despite harboring the great power aspirations PLA did not have the ‘capabilities, organizations, and readiness of warfare’ which was clearly understood by PLA leaders, as the report explained and ‘set the long-time strategy to strengthen and transform its armed forces in a manner commensurate with its aspiration’. China has set the goal to become the ‘world class military’ by 2049 -- first announced by General Secretary Xi Jinping in 2017. Although, leaving the definition of ‘world class military’ unexplained. Expert suggest that for PLA, the world class military encompasses the capabilities of Blue Water Navy to near sea region and power projection capabilities to far seas. But the DOD’s report assessment suggests inverse result for PLA as according to the report ‘PLA was slowly and unevenly adapting to the trends in modern warfare’.
According to the report, ‘the PRC has marshalled the resources, technology, and political will over the past two decades to strengthen and modernize the PLA in nearly every respect’ And the trajectory of the PLA modernisation is so profound that it makes us believe about the power shift in International Politics. According to the Report China is already ahead of USA in certain aspect which we will deal in the article categorically.
The report said that PLA is world’s largest Navy with 350 ships leaving behind the USA with only 293 ships, the assessment also includes the submarines and surface combatants. But according to the other reports, the quantitative edge of China belittled by USA’s qualitative edge, USA does not field any conventional submarines in comparison to China who has been over burdened by primitive conventional submarines unsuited for long time operation and lacks the stealth capabilities. The surface combatants that China fields are smaller in size and less capable in performing intense warfare duties in comparison to USA’s technologically superior combatants. Thus, the comparison demonstrates the poor methodology which resulted in a wrong analogy. Another area, the report suggests, in which USA lagged behind China is development of the ‘Land based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles’, which actually is a matter of worry for USA. China has more than 1250 ground launched ballistic missiles (GLBMs) and ground launched cruise missiles (GLCMs) with ranges between 500 and 5,500 KM, while USA, due to the constraints put by INF treaty, don’t have, medium and large range missiles in its arsenal. In the scenario USA has to take help of its privileged stealth aircrafts to destroy the targets deep into Chinese mainland, which is also a difficult to understand owing to the ‘Integrated air defense systems’ China fitted at home. Thanks to the Russian S-400 and S-300 and some domestically produced systems, PRC has one of the ‘largest forces of advanced long-range surfaces to air systems. However, the PLA, as the reports suggest initially, preparing to project power outside, the integrated defense system is all necessary only to defend its homeland.
Moreover, CCP has taken the task to thoroughly modernize the PLA as well as directed it to improve the combat readiness which has culminated in ‘the intensity of the PLA’s training and the complexity and scale of its exercise’. Nonetheless, PLA has set the bar so high due to the its destined adversary USA who has domesticise the world’s most battle-hardened army. PLA’s preparation, according to the reports, is to dissuades the third-party intervention in the case of its campaign against Taiwan, its ‘A2/Ad capabilities are currently the most robust within the first island chain’. Notwithstanding, the PLAN’s level of preparedness but the A2/Ad is itself a tough nut to crack especially against the USA Naval forces. The concern over Chinese A2/AD strategy is not ephemeral but consistent due to the false belief of maturation of A2/AD forces but successful A2/AD is a thing of future, the complex technological barrier has made it impossible in foreseeable future for PLAN to conduct such operation that too against a formidable force such as USA. Other reports and experts still doubt PLA’s capabilities to reincorporate Taiwan forcefully.
The report is the overall account to understand China’s strategy, its forces capabilities and its global presence, that spurred the debates in the USA’s security experts regarding the future trajectory of the world politics. However, the concern over the profundity of challenges varies in degrees but the trajectory of China’s reclaiming attitudes warrants close attention. Therefore, the concerns over DOD’s report though not unnecessary but highly exaggerated. The future aspiration is based on the Current economic performance of China but it is highly sceptical for Beijing to sustain the growth rate that it maintained for so many years, demographic change and ‘middle-income trap’ are likely to inhibit its march for ‘World Class Military’
References
1. 2020 China Military Power Report: https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF
2. Americas Strategic Response.pdf: https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/Americas%20Strategic%20Response.pdf
3. What the Pentagon’s new report on China means for US strategy — including on Taiwan: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/09/04/what-the-pentagons-new-report-on-china-means-for-u-s-strategy-including-on-taiwan/
4. How does China’s military compare to the US’? | South China Morning Post: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3140681/us-china-rivalry-who-has-stronger-military
5. Updated Report: Chinese Strategy and Military Forces in 2021 | Center for Strategic and International Studies: https://www.csis.org/analysis/updated-report-chinese-strategy-and-military-forces-2021
6. Investigating The Chinese Threat, Part I: Military and Economic Aggression: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-112hhrg73536/html/CHRG-112hhrg73536.htm
7. China’s Military Has a Hidden Weakness – The Diplomat: https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/chinas-military-has-a-hidden-weakness/
8. Chinese Military Power | Council on Foreign Relations:https://www.cfr.org/report/chinese-military-power
9. China's military capabilities are gaining on the U.S. The Pentagon needs to take bold steps.: https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/china-s-military-capabilities-are-gaining-u-s-pentagon-needs-ncna1234383
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(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
