Taiwan’s Military Modernization
Since June 2021, China has become more aggressive towards Taiwan. China sent twenty-eight warplanes into the Taiwanese airspace in June. Other than sending planes, China conducted assault drills in southwestern and southeastern waters near Taiwan in August, including Chinese fighter jets, anti-submarine aircraft, and combat ships. Also, in 2020, China conducted a joint firepower assault and beach raid near Taiwan. Such military drills have concerned Taiwan as China advances to fulfill its dream of reunification. To protect itself from Chinese incursions, Taiwan has decided to modernize its military to deter China.
The Contest for Taiwan Straits
China specialist David Lampton stated that before the World Trade Center bombing, if anyone has asked him, “where in the world could two major nuclear powers come into conflict?” he would have answered “the Taiwan Strait”. It implies that the Taiwan strait is one of the dangerous locations in the world as a war could probably break out here between Taiwan and China. The tensions between Taiwan and China (PRC) began after the end of World War II. During the Chinese Civil War, Mao Zedong emerged victorious, forcing Chiang Kai-shek’s US-backed nationalists to flee to Taiwan in 1949.
Taiwan
In 1895, the First Sino-Japanese War took place, and the Qing government ceded Taiwan to Japan. After the Japanese surrender in 1945, the Republic of China began ruling the island with the US and the UK. During the Chinese civil war, the communist armies of Mao Zedong beat the nationalist Chaing Kai-shek’s troops. As a result, the Kuomintang government (KMT) fled to Taiwan and set up a democratic nation in 1949. Taiwan’s Father of Democracy, President Lee Teng-hui, laid out constitutional changes and brought democratic reforms.
China (PRC) has always wanted to merge Taiwan into one China, but the US-led economic and security aid has prevented China from doing so. Thus, China came up with the ‘One China’ policy that asserts that there is only one sovereign name under the name ‘China’. Moreover, China has always tried to be assertive over Taiwan through its military drills and constant claims over the island. Many Taiwanese people are also concerned about PRC’s growing influence in Taiwan through economic ties. In 2014, students and activities protested under the ‘Sunflower Movement’ against China’s influence. Most people in Taiwan feel ‘Taiwanese’ rather than ‘Chinese’, which shows that they want complete autonomy from China’s control.
America
Initially, the US was not putting much focus on Taiwan. However, during the Korean War, the US realized the urgency of protecting its allies from falling to communists. Hence, in 1950, President Harry Truman sent the US seventh Fleet to the Taiwan Strait to protect Taiwan from mainland aggression. In 1954, both Republic of China (Taiwan) the United States signed a Mutual Defense Treaty that assisted Taiwan in maintaining legitimacy and receiving military and economic aid from the United States. However, as a result of ping-pong diplomacy, the relations between Taiwan and the United States began changing. In 1979, the Carter administration established formal diplomatic ties with the People’s Republic of China, ultimately terminating the US-ROC Mutual Defense Treaty.
Nevertheless, the security and economic relations between Taiwan and The USA continued through the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) that was passed only three months later the termination of the Mutual Defence Treaty. According to the act, the United States assured to “make available to Taiwan…defense articles and services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capacity” (Ward, 2021). Although the US-Taiwan relations are currently based on the TRA, the act carries ambiguity. It was never clarified in the act whether the United States would come to the defense of Taiwan during the act of external aggression. The act only saved the US-ROC relations from disappearing.
China
At the 100th anniversary of the CCP’s official leadership, President Xi Jinping articulated his vision of the ‘Chinese Dream’, which was to be achieved by 2049. One of his Chinese Dreams included resolving the Taiwan question through complete reunification and defeating separatist Taiwan Independence attempts (Ward, 2021).
According to John Culver, three red lines define China’s decision to go to war with Taiwan. First, China will attack Taiwan if Taiwan formally separates from China and adopts sovereignty (Taiwan is still part of the PRC). Second, China would mobilize its forces towards Taiwan if Taiwan acquires nuclear weapons. Lastly, if Taiwan becomes too close to an outside power and acquires weapons, China would declare war. In this case, America has already sold fighter jets, rocket launchers, artillery to Taiwan. However, this is still below crossing the third line because America has not stationed its troops in Taiwan (Ward, 2021).
Taiwan’s Military Modernization
Many China specialists have pointed out the fact that Taiwan’s military capability is nowhere in front of China. According to Klaus Bardenhagen, Taiwan is behind China’s military competencies as China’s official military budget is 16 times that of Taiwan’s (2021). Taiwan’s defense budget is $10 billion, whereas China’s is $154 billion (Thompson, 2018). Thompson further clarifies that “there are almost a million active-duty soldiers in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) than 140,000 ground troops in Taiwan. Numbers point out that “Taiwan has 420 fighters v. China’s 1,490 and 23 ships v. China’s 240. China also has 52 modern attack submarines whereas Taiwan only has 2 of them (as of 2018)” (Thompson, 2018). Despite being on the back foot in terms of military strength, Taiwan is not giving up and instead modernizing its military.
In 2017, Taiwan’s Chief of the General Staff, Adm. Lee Hsi-ming, proposed a revolutionary approach known as the Overall Defence Concept (ODC). Experts believe that if this concept is used effectively, it could turn the tables and challenge China on a greater level. Taiwan is buying AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and F-16s that are already creating a stir among US Airforce pilots. Both Taiwan and the USA have also signed an agreement where the US plans to sell 40 self-propelled howitzers to Taiwan. However, Thompson points out that the US-made weapons are “expensive and designed to project power over great distances,” which is opposite to the needs of Taiwan (2018). Taiwan needs short-range and defensive systems that could protect Taiwan from an adversary close to its shores. Under Taiwan’s ODC, Taiwan is employing an asymmetric defense strategy. With such a strategy, Taiwan seeks to maximize “its defense advantages and targets an invading force when it is at its weakest” (Thompson, 2018). Previously, Taiwan emphasized fighting across the entire strait and defeating the strait by gradually reducing the strength or effectiveness of the enemy through a sustained attack.
According to ODC, Taiwan’s defense strategies could be divided into two phases. In the first phase, Taiwan can fight a ‘decisive battle’ in the shoreline, up to 100km from the island. The strategy would include sea mines and large surface vessels equipped with “Taiwan’s domestically manufactures anti-ship cruise missiles, the Hsiung Feng 2 and 3” (Thompson, 2018). This approach is known as the ‘porcupine’ defense strategy as it makes it difficult for the enemy to penetrate. In the second phase, Taiwan aims at eradicating the enemy near the beach area. This would include laying mines in shallow waters to prevent beach landings. The Taiwanese army would also be targeting enemy ships with their precise firings.
To sum up, the ODC is all about enhancing the quality of low quantity systems. Taiwan’s asymmetric defense strategy may prove that a war can be won even without a large force. The extensive use of sea mines and missiles and Taiwan’s armed force can annihilate the large military force in the initial phase. The ODC also includes force preservation tactics such as deception, camouflage, concealment, jamming, redundancy, rapid repair, etc., often ignored by other militaries worldwide. Most importantly, the ODC makes sure that Taiwan denies China the chance to land and resupply an invasion (Thompson, 2018).
The uniqueness of the Overall Defense Concept is that it acknowledges the fact that Chinese military abilities dwarf Taiwan. Thus, instead of fighting a more extensive Chinese military, it makes sure that Taiwan survives until a third party intervenes and joins the war with Taiwan. It uses a high-quality smaller number of defense techniques to sustain and prevent enemy incursion. One may also wonder why Taiwan is not equipped with nuclear weapons like China. It is because it will provoke China to attack Taiwan the moment China gets to know about Taiwan’s nuclear aspirations. Also, if Taiwan is nuclearized, it will promote an arms race in the region, which will be extremely dangerous. Hence, the US has already pressured Taiwan in the 1980s to shut down the programs as it has negative repercussions on other countries like North Korea. Nonetheless, along with ODC, Taiwan is prepping up its military game. In 2020, Taiwan announced reforms in the military, which included removing military personnel receiving a grade of “C” or lower on their evaluations. Furthermore, Taiwan will also launch a domestic submarine industry that would consist of attack submarines with Mark 48 torpedoes and Harpoon anti-ship missiles (Episkopos, 2021). With this, it is quite clear that Taiwan has not given up and instead modernized its military through smart and efficient strategies despite being outnumbered.
References
1. Bardenhagen, K. (2021, April 5). Taiwan's Army 'ill-prepared' for potential CHINESE Attack: DW: 05.04.2021. DW.COM. https://www.dw.com/en/taiwans-army-ill-prepared-for-potential-chinese-attack/a-57102659.
2. BBC. (2021, May 26). What's behind the china-taiwan divide? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-34729538.
3. Episkopos, M. (2021, May 20). Taiwan's Army has big plans to rebuild (and take on China, if it must. The National Interest. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/taiwans-army-has-big-plans-rebuild-and-take-china-if-it-must-185618.
4. PBS. (n.d.). Experts' analyses - why the taiwan issue is so dangerous | dangerous straits | frontline. PBS. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/china/experts/taiwan.html.
5. Ruwitch, J. (2021, June 15). China sends a record 28 military planes into airspace controlled By taiwan. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2021/06/15/1006921645/china-sends-a-record-28-military-planes-into-airspace-controlled-by-taiwan.
6. Thompson, D. (2018, October 2). Hope on the Horizon: Taiwan's radical new defense concept. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2018/10/hope-on-the-horizon-taiwans-radical-new-defense-concept/.
7. Ward, A. (2021, May 5). Why there's talk about China starting a war with Taiwan. Vox. https://www.vox.com/22405553/taiwan-china-war-joe-biden-strategic-ambiguity.
Pic Courtesy-Lin Jhih-Han at unspalsh.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
