Russia and China Arms Trade: New Possibilities
Russian President Vladimir Putin has replaced Sergei Shoigu as defense minister, marking a significant Cabinet shakeup at the start of his fifth term. Shoigu will now serve as secretary of Russia’s Security Council. The move comes as Andrei Belousov is proposed to take over as defense minister. This change coincides with a tragic incident in Belgorod, Russia, where 13 people died and 20 were wounded in a building collapse reportedly due to Ukrainian shelling. It can be noted that, in the first week of May, Sergei Shoigu, had instructed for a surge in weapons production for the conflict in Ukraine, according to statements from his ministry. This directive follows closely on the heels of the United States' recent approval of a long-awaited multibillion-dollar military aid package for the Ukrainian government.
Changes in the Arms Trade Worldwide Since Ukraine War
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has had a profound impact on the global arms trade, reshaping dynamics among major exporters and importers. The United States, in particular, has seen a significant increase in its arms exports, attributed mainly to sales to European countries. This surge in exports has solidified the U.S.'s position as the top arms supplier globally, with deliveries to more countries than ever before. Notably, Ukraine, once a minimal importer and a site of domestic production, has emerged as the fourth-largest weapons buyer worldwide, with a staggering 6,600% increase in imports from 2019 to 2023. However, many of the arms received by Ukraine were provided by allies rather than purchased, with the United States, Germany, and Poland being the top three suppliers. Meanwhile, Russia, traditionally a major arms exporter, has experienced a significant decline in exports, with sales dropping by 53%. This decline can be attributed to various factors, including pressure from the U.S. and European states on countries considering Russian arms purchases. France has notably overtaken Russia to claim the second spot among arms exporters, driven by a policy of "strategic sovereignty" and successful arms sales, particularly of the Rafale fighter aircraft, submarines, and frigates. Germany's arms exports, although relatively stable, have seen fluctuations, with a decline over the past decade followed by a resurgence in 2023, partly fueled by military aid to Ukraine and sales to other countries like Singapore, Israel, and Egypt. In contrast, African countries have reduced their arms purchases, primarily due to declines in imports from major importers like Algeria and Morocco. Overall, the Ukraine war has led to a reconfiguration of the global arms trade, with shifts in export dominance, changes in import patterns, and increased scrutiny on arms deals in light of geopolitical tensions.
Russia And China
Through the decades, cooperation on military technology had been an important and symbolic element of China-Russia relations. Politically, Russian military aid and arms sales has helped undergird the broader diplomatic relationship. Militarily, arms sales has provided the PLA with equipment that it struggled to produce on its own, such as advanced aircraft, engines, and air defense systems. However, on numerous instances, China has allegedly stolen Russian technology and know-how, creating tensions between Beijing and Moscow. According to a report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China has significantly reduced its arms imports from Russia over the last five years by almost half. Chinese arms purchases from Russia has slowed to a trickle in the late 2000s. China's overall arms imports has been down 30% during the 2007-2021 period compared to 1992-2006. Declining orders from Russia had driven much of this fall. China has procured around 71% of its arms imports from Russia since 2007—a notable drop from 84% during the previous 15-year period. The relative decline in Russian arms sales to China has also been largely due to China's shrinking reliance on foreign-made equipment. Decades of growing defense spending and intensive efforts to modernize its defense industry has rendered China increasingly capable of producing its own advanced fighter jets, naval vessels, and other equipment.
China has notably still depended on Russian-made engines for many PLA aircraft. Over the last five years, aircraft engines has accounted for more than 54% of China's arms imports, with the overwhelming majority coming from Russia. Some of China's Chengdu J-20 stealth fighters have been equipped with Russian Saturn AL-31 engines and versions of China's developmental Shenyang J-35/FC-31 jet fighter has used Russian RD-93 engines. However, China has appeared to be making headway toward replacing Russian engines.
Despite ongoing tensions with Russia, Ukraine remains a significant contributor to China's imports, constituting 8.2%. Ukraine provides essential components such as gas turbines for destroyers and engines for China's L-15 trainer/light combat aircraft. Analysts point out that Russia's dependency on Ukraine for similar engines for its own ships and aircraft has influenced this dynamic. Furthermore, China's ability to design and produce its own major arms has led to a rapid decline in overall imports, a trend expected to continue as China enhances its indigenous capabilities.
Over the past few years, China has localized several key systems, including combat and transport aircraft engines previously imported from Russia, as well as marine engines from Ukraine, France, and Germany. This development has led to the production of new versions of aircraft and ships equipped with Chinese engines, reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.
However, challenges persist, particularly in helicopter production, which remains a significant hurdle for China due to its complexity. Consequently, China continues to produce under-licensed French helicopters and import Russian models. In sub-Saharan Africa, China has emerged as the largest arms supplier, overtaking Russia, with a 19% share of arms imports.
In terms of arms exports, China remains a significant player, selling weapons to 40 states, although export volumes have slightly decreased. France has ascended to the position of the second-largest weapons exporter, surpassing Russia, which experienced a notable decline in export volume. China now accounts for 21% of Russian exports, second only to India.
The US on Russia and China’s Arms Trade
Amidst Ukraine facing a new wave of attacks from Russia and grappling with ammunition shortages, U.S. officials have sounded alarm bells, emphasizing China's purported assistance in revitalizing Russia's military capabilities following initial setbacks in the conflict. These concerns escalated following reports from Britain's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) indicating that the Russian vessel Angara, responsible for transporting thousands of containers suspected to hold North Korean munitions to Russian ports since August 2023, has been stationed at a Chinese shipyard in eastern Zhejiang province since February.
According to a US assessment, China has significantly increased its sales of machine tools, microelectronics, and other technologies to Russia, which Moscow is utilizing to bolster its military capabilities for the conflict in Ukraine. In 2023, approximately 90% of Russia's microelectronics originated from China, enabling the production of missiles, tanks, and aircraft. Furthermore, nearly 70% of Russia's machine tool imports, totaling around USD 900 million in the last quarter of 2023, were sourced from China.
Chinese and Russian entities have collaborated on joint production of unmanned aerial vehicles within Russia, and Chinese companies are believed to be supplying nitrocellulose crucial for propellant weapons manufacturing to Russia. Additionally, there are indications of Beijing and Moscow working together to enhance satellite and other space-based capabilities for use in Ukraine, potentially elevating the threat Russia poses across Europe in the long term. US officials have also alleged that China is providing imagery to Russia for its operations in Ukraine.
While China has not directly provided lethal military support to Russia, it has offered diplomatic backing, attributing Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to launch the war to Western provocation and refraining from labeling it an invasion in deference to the Kremlin. Despite maintaining that it does not offer arms or military assistance to Russia, China has maintained robust economic ties with Moscow, along with India and other nations, amidst sanctions from Washington and its allies. Russia's increasing economic and diplomatic isolation has consequently heightened its reliance on China, its former rival for leadership of the Communist bloc during the Cold War.
China as a New Player
China has emerged as a crucial player in the arms trade, particularly in its relationship with Pakistan, where it serves as the primary arms supplier, accounting for a significant 61% of exports to Islamabad. Furthermore, China has expanded its influence in the region by exporting 11% of its arms to Bangladesh. This growing role as an arms exporter is underscored by China's declining arms imports, which have decreased by 44%. This shift is indicative of China's transformation from a significant arms importer to a formidable exporter in the global arms trade landscape. This transition is fueled by substantial investments in its domestic defense-industrial base and a strategic emphasis on enhancing production capabilities. Notably, China has leveraged "reverse-engineering" technologies, often sourced from Russia, to bolster its indigenous arms manufacturing capabilities. As a result, China's evolving role in the arms trade reflects its increasing prominence as a major player in the global defence market.
Implications On India
India's arms imports surged by 5%, consolidating its status as the world's foremost importer. Remarkably, only 36% of New Delhi's imports originated from Russia, marking the first instance in over six decades where Moscow's share dipped below the 50% threshold, as per the "Trends in International Arms Transfers" report. This decline underscores India's strategic pivot away from Russian arms, with a newfound reliance on Western suppliers, notably France and the United States, alongside its burgeoning domestic arms industry. This strategic diversification is evident not only in India's increased orders from Western countries but also in its arms procurement plans, which notably exclude Russian options. This shift in defense procurement is set against a backdrop of heightened tensions with Pakistan and China. Meanwhile, Pakistan, a significant arms importer, has witnessed a substantial 43% increase in arms imports, primarily sourced from China, thereby fortifying the China-Pakistan defense partnership. In response, India is fortifying its defense posture through diversified arms imports and indigenous military development initiatives. India's pivotal role in global arms procurement is underscored by its status as the largest arms customer for France, Russia, and Israel, showcasing its strategic reliance on diverse sources to meet its defense needs, reflective of its geopolitical positioning and security priorities. This strategic recalibration in India's defense procurement strategy reflects a broader realignment in its foreign policy and defense posture, aimed at navigating evolving geopolitical dynamics and addressing emerging security challenges in the region.
Despite the decline in defense imports, India remains committed to nurturing its longstanding relations with Russia. Concerns over the deepening ties between China and Russia have heightened India's desire to maintain Moscow as a strategic ally. Moreover, with approximately 65% of Indian hardware, including helicopters, tanks, and fighter jets, sourced from Russia, India cannot swiftly transition away from Russian imports. However, the dynamics have shifted significantly since the 1960s when Russia virtually single-handedly supplied India's defense forces. Today, Russia finds itself relegated to just one of many defense partners for India, marking an unexpected setback for Russia's military-industrial complex.
Conclusion
Several factors have the potential to transform the arms trade from a platform for cooperation to a source of contention and competition. The Chinese defense industry's ongoing pursuit of self-reliance could lead to a complete cessation of Chinese arms purchases from Russia, a trend that had already been evident with a notable slowdown in recent years. Even if China were to continue procuring certain items, Russia might encounter challenges in meeting their demands. Additionally, if China were to assert itself as a more dominant player in the global arms market, it could strain the broader China-Russia relationship. Despite China's limited success thus far in capturing global market share, primarily due to stiff competition from established actors like the United States and Russia, opportunities could arise in regions such as the Western Asia and North Africa, particularly in light of Russia's involvement in Ukraine. Over the long term, Beijing could emerge as a more appealing arms supplier as developing countries seek to diversify their sources away from reliance solely in Russia.
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Pic Courtsey-RT today
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
