Iran's Political Landscape: Insights from the 2024 Elections
The Iranian Parliamentary elections, held in March 2024, offered a crucial insight into the political landscape of Iran and its potential ramifications both domestically and internationally. This essay will delve into the implications of the election results on Iranian politics and stability, considering factors such as voter turnout, the dominance of conservative factions, limitations on candidate participation, and the potential impact on Iran's foreign policy and the succession of the Supreme Leader.
Iranian Political System[1]
Iran's political system is unique, combining elements of both theocratic governance under the Supreme Leader and elected institutions like the Parliament (Majles) and the Assembly of Experts. The Assembly of Experts, comprised of clerics, is responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader and supervising his activities. Meanwhile, the Parliament holds limited legislative power, with laws subject to approval by the Guardian Council to ensure compliance with Islamic law.
Understanding the Iranian Parliamentary Elections[2]
The March 2024 elections stood as a watershed moment in Iran's political landscape, signifying a critical juncture in the nation's democratic journey. These elections bore the weighty responsibility of shaping the composition of two vital bodies: the Parliament and the Assembly of Experts.
Parliament and Assembly of Experts: Pillars of Governance[3]
The Parliament, known as the Majles-e Shoraye Eslami, serves as the primary legislative chamber, wielding significant authority in crafting and passing laws that shape Iran's socio-political fabric. Comprising 290 members, its decisions hold considerable sway over the trajectory of the nation.
In contrast, the Assembly of Experts, or Majlis-e Khobregan, assumes a distinct role in Iran's governance architecture. Charged with the solemn duty of appointing, supervising, and, if necessary, dismissing the Supreme Leader—the paramount authority in Iran—the Assembly's deliberations carry profound implications for the nation's leadership and direction.
Election Dynamics: A Tale of Factions[4]
Within the Iranian political landscape, a rich tapestry of factions and ideologies interweave, each vying for prominence and influence. Foremost among these are the Reformists and the Conservatives/Principlists, representing divergent visions for Iran's future trajectory.
While the Reformists advocate for greater civil liberties and political reforms, aligning themselves with figures such as former President Mohammad Khatami, the Conservatives/Principlists espouse a staunch adherence to traditional values and policies championed by current President Ali Khamenei.
Continuation of Conservative Dominance[5]
Despite the plurality of voices within Iran's political spectrum, the elections of March 2024 reaffirmed the enduring dominance of conservative factions. This entrenched power dynamic, echoing the outcomes of previous electoral cycles, underscores the formidable influence wielded by conservative forces in shaping Iran's governance and policy decisions.
Vetting Procedures and Candidate Limitations[6]
However, behind the facade of electoral participation lies a complex web of vetting procedures orchestrated by the Guardian Council. This unelected body, comprising religious clerics and legal experts, exerts significant influence in determining the eligibility of candidates, effectively curbing the participation of reformist and moderate voices.
The stringent vetting criteria imposed by the Guardian Council serve as a potent tool for safeguarding the entrenched interests of conservative factions, perpetuating a status quo that favors continuity over change. As a result, aspiring candidates, particularly those harboring reformist inclinations, often find themselves sidelined or disqualified from electoral contention, further entrenching the hegemony of conservative forces.
Implications for Iranian Politics and Stability[7]
One notable aspect of the 2024 elections was the alarmingly low voter turnout, which stood at around 41%. This historic low turnout underscores a growing disillusionment among the Iranian populace with the ruling elites and the perceived lack of genuine political representation. The reluctance of prominent figures like former President Khatami to participate further accentuates the widening gulf between the state and society.
Moreover, the prevalence of conservative dominance coupled with the restrictive vetting process risks exacerbating societal grievances and undermining the legitimacy of the political establishment. The International Crisis Group warns that this trend towards ideological conformity at the expense of popular legitimacy could potentially precipitate political instability in the long run.
Impact on Iran's Foreign Policy[8]
Iran's foreign policy trajectory is primarily shaped by key institutions such as the Supreme Leader, the Foreign Affairs Ministry, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While the parliamentary elections may not herald radical shifts in foreign policy, they could influence Iran's stance on critical issues such as the nuclear program and regional alliances.
The conservative-dominated parliament may exhibit a more assertive stance on Iran's nuclear program, potentially influencing Iran's engagement with international actors and the prospects for reviving the nuclear agreement. However, the entrenched influence of conservative factions does not necessarily preclude the possibility of collaboration with reformist elements, as evidenced by past instances of bipartisan support for international agreements.
Succession Dynamics and the Supreme Leader[9]
The composition of the newly elected Assembly of Experts assumes added significance in light of the advanced age of the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. With Khamenei's eventual departure from office looming on the horizon, the assembly's role in selecting his successor becomes pivotal.
The exclusion of moderate candidates from the assembly and the re-election of President Raisi, a staunch conservative, suggest a consolidation of power within conservative circles. The likely resolution of the succession question between conservative factions, the IRGC, and Khamenei himself underscores the enduring influence of conservative elements in shaping Iran's future leadership.
Conclusion
The Iranian parliamentary elections of 2024 offer valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of Iranian politics and the potential implications for domestic stability and foreign policy. While the conservative dominance reaffirms existing power structures, the low voter turnout and disenchantment among the populace underscore underlying fissures within Iranian society.
Looking ahead, the succession question looms large, with implications for the continuity of conservative influence and the potential for internal power struggles. However, amidst these uncertainties, the enduring quest for political legitimacy and representation remains a defining feature of Iran's political landscape, shaping its trajectory in the years to come.
Notes
[1] Saraswat, D. (2016). Iran Parliament and Assembly of Expert Elections: Hardliners on the Rise | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Idsa.in. https://www.idsa.in/issuebrief/Iran-Parliament-and-Assembly-DSaraswat-150324
[2] Loft, P. (2024, March 26). Iran’s 2024 elections. House of Commons Library. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/irans-2024-elections/
[3] Ibid
[4] Ibid
[5] Ibid
[6] Ibid
[7] Ibid
[8] Ibid
[9] Vakil, S. (2024, March 4). Iran’s electoral facade. Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/03/irans-electoral-facade
Pic Courtsey- Ekrem Osmanoglu at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of theo author and do not represnt views of CESCUBE.)