Post Abe phase in India-Japan Relations
India and Japan are adjusting their policies according to the changes in the greater Indo-Pacific, with the new geopolitical scenario in which China emerges as the primary source of threat for both the nations. India and Japan, both looking forward to expand cooperation against this discordant neighbour. Former Prime Minister of Japan Mr. Shinjo Abe whose primary goal to resuscitate the right to institutionalization of Japanese defense forces by amending the article 9 of Japanese constitution, remains unfulfilled. Now with China ascending and incidentally after facing Galwan crisis, India set ready to club with other likeminded nations for the furtherance of anti-China alliance - who could be more valuable than Japan. As Abe referred Prime minister Modi as the ‘Most dependable friend’ abroad; the mantle now falls on Suga to enhance the already existing strategic partnership with India along with expanding the hitherto untapped areas of co-operation.
Prime minister Suga canceled his first official visit to India, scheduled in early May, citing the resurgence of coronavirus in his country. This was the first opportunity for the leaders to meet each other in-person to reaffirm cooperation for achieving free and open Indo-Pacific, with collaboration in many strategic and technological aspects extends from countering China to outer space and cyber security. However, both the leaders had a telephonic conversation on September 25, 2020 in which expression of intentions to promote bilateral cooperation in the fields of security, economy and to work towards ‘free and open Indo-Pacific' have been made. Japan and India shared a celebrated bond of mutual trust stemmed by the view of former prime Minister Abe and Prime Minister Modi to continue to advance the ‘Japan-India Special Strategic and Global Partnership”.
Both the Asian democracies shared a special strategic imperative warranted by the need to deter China from getting out of hand. Some suggest that Prime Minister Suga, unlike Abe, does not want to make any move which could irk China in a bad way largely due to his moderate political ideology but Prime Minister Suga, dealing with the fallout of the coronavirus, identified the synergy with New Delhi to deepen security co-operation under their shared Indo-pacific vision. Moreover, the upcoming Quad 2.0 meeting in Japan from October provides a crucial multilateral platform for Modi and Suga. The propelling Indo-Japan cooperation is largely a product of Abe’s Asia policy in which he perceived India in a significant role. Suga, however, very well aware of the importance of Indo-Japan ties planned to solidify a security framework consisting Quad members which usually seen a counterweight to China. On the telephonic conversation, Prime Minister Suga stated that he would like to promote bilateral as well as multilateral mechanism with India specially the Quad. India and Japan upgraded their bilateral ties to ‘Special Strategic and Global Partnership’ and already signed a Military Pact last September which enabled both the countries to exchange supplies and logistical support. Moreover, Prime minister Suga many times shows concern over China unilateral moves in East China Sea and South China Sea to alter the status quo, including the Coast Guard Law. One can easily expect the continuation of the balancing security policy in both the nations started during the reign of Shinzo Abe. In addition, the military exercise like Malabar and Jimex have also contributed to embolden the shaping of the strategic partnership between India and Japan. Both the powers have successfully established the mechanism of 2+2 meeting between Japan and India’s Foreign and Defense Minister, all progressively expands the scope of security partnership. With China heavily investing to upgrade its military capabilities, post Abe Japan and India needs to figure out the shape of Quad process; periodic meetings brought some momentum but Abe’s departure surely warrants reconfirmation from his successor Suga.
The cooperation seems vibrant in economic field as well, the testimony is evident in the fact that Japan has emerged as the third largest investor with a total FDI inflow of US$30.75 billion from 2000-19, which over the past years have grown increasingly, despite these advances Japan and India yet to be fully realized and achieve the Global potential of their alliance. However, both the leaders understand the need to shift the supply chains from China therefore the Australia-Japan-India led Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI), holds many significant options for furthering the shared interest of both the nations. Japan’s USD 2.2 billion stimulus to the Japanese Companies for relocating their unit also impressed India, who eagerly trying to synergies efforts of its ‘Make in India’ initiative by exploiting Japan industrial capacity. In January, both countries signed the framework for ‘Specified Skilled Worker’ meant to collaborate the efforts on information sharing and consultation in order to exchange the skilled worker.
Prime minister Suga sought to expand the base of Indo-Japan cooperation in technologies like cyber security and space technology. During the Abe years, India and Japan established the ‘Digital Research and Innovation Partnership’ that works in the field of emerging technologies stretching from AI to 5G and Internet of things and Space Research. Mr. Modi and Suga will surely try to deepen the cooperation in 5G technologies to neutralize the so-called edge that China has gained lately.
Japan has been a quintessential partner in feeding the voracious needs of Infrastructural development of India. Prime Minister Suga repeats the commitment many times to develop the India’s north east regions, in addition Mr. Modi have welcomed the steady progress on the high-speed rail construction of Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail. Nonetheless, despite of multiple efforts to promote the economic multilateralism, India chooses to remain outside of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which hindered its full potential of becoming the world’s largest regional economic bloc. Therefore, Prime Minister Suga is set to open the window for the negotiation which would facilitate India’s entry in the group specially to prevent the RCEP from becoming a China dominated economic bloc.
Besides bilateral commitments, two leaders also need to devote some attention towards third country and multilateral forums; however, after the actualization of India- Japan Acquisition and Cross Servicing Agreement (ACSA) both countries prepare to take more action in the third country cooperation. Some reported shortcomings in the joint infrastructure projects in Africa and Iran needs greater attention as both countries sought to counter China’s growing influence in these areas of the world. Moreover, Prime Minister Suga should work to rekindle the ‘Eurasian Diplomacy’, conceptualized by the Prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, by synthesizing Japan’s ‘Central Asia Plus’ policy with India’s ‘Connect Central Asia’. South East Asia is another region where both the leaders should work towards neutralizing Chinese burgeoning influence by presenting themselves as the alternative to the Chinese investment and developmental work.
In spite of the aforementioned points that I have made, the Indo-Japan relations offers much more than just an anti-China bonhomie - That Mr. Suga, like his predecessor Abe, understands correctly as well as Prime minister Modi with similar dexterity. However, Prime Minister Suga is expected to remain in the office only until Japan’s next general election which is set to happen in September 2021, after that India may have to face the new government.
References
· Pant V. Harsh( May 1,2021), The rising sun in India-Japan relations, ORF, New Delhi.
· https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-rising-sun-in-india-japan-relations/
· Panda, Jagannath (Oct 6, 2020), Suga, India-Japan Ties and the Domestic Drawing, JapanForward.
https://japan-forward.com/asias-next-page-suga-india-japan-ties-and-the-domestic-drawing/
· Ministry Of External Affairs (SEP 1, 2014) Tokyo Declaration for India - Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership, GOI, New Delhi.
· Staff report (April, 22) Suga cancels planned India and Philippines visits as virus surges in Japan, TheJapantimes,
· Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan (Sep 25, 2020), Japan-India Summit Telephone Talk, Government of Japan.
https://www.mofa.go.jp/s_sa/sw/page4e_001096.html
· Siddiqui, Huma (Sep 10, 2020), India and Japan cement defense ties! Ink landmark ACSA pact, India to get access to Djibouti in Africa, Financial Express.
· Panda, Jagannath (Nov 13, 2018), India–Japan embrace should stretch out to Eurasia, EastAsiaForum.
https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/11/13/india-japan-embrace-should-stretch-out-to-eurasia/
· Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan (Oct 29,2018), Japan-India Summit Meeting, Government of Japan.
https://www.mofa.go.jp/s_sa/sw/in/page3_002603.html
· StaffWriter (Sep 4, 2020), Japan to offer incentives to companies shifting from China to India : Report, Livemint.
· Basu, Nayanima ( April 8, 2021), Indo-Pacific, Quad & China on the table as Japan PM Suga set to make first India trip, Theprint.
· Roy Chaudhury Dipanjan (May 27, 2017), Japan's investments in India getting diverse, The Economic Times.
Pic Courtesy-mofa.go.jp(Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.)
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
