Navigating Strategic Rivalries: Vietnam's stand on U.S.-China
The rivalry between Vietnam and its northern neighbor has been playing a significant role in shaping its foreign policy. Recent visits by Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chih to China and the US have highlighted the growing trade ties between the two countries. These two economies have been trying to decouple from each other, which has resulted in Vietnam being able to benefit from the increased trade between them. Despite the country's well-managed relations with its major trading partners, experts believe that it may be caught in the crossfire of the intensifying rivalry between China and the US. Because of its precarious tightrope walk, it may be forced to choose sides.
This rivalry has increased in recent years, and Southeast Asia is one of the regions that is being affected by this conflict. Vietnam is the only country in Southeast Asia that has experienced direct military confrontations with multiple powers. It suffered during the Cold War, and these confrontations were triggered by the different geostrategic factors that affected the region. Vietnam is particularly mindful of the intensifying rivalry between China and the U.S. as it regards its relationship with significant powers. However, Russia is also a significant competitor in Vietnam due to its long-standing relationship and the perception that it has an influence over the country. This triangular competition between the US, China, and Russia was established during the Cold War.
The maritime domain holds the most potential for conflict as Vietnam is mainly concerned with China's expanding naval power and its growing interest in the South China seas. Russia, on the other hand, is becoming more prominent due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, due to the increasing competition in the technology and trade domain, Vietnam is becoming more vulnerable to the effects of the global economic system's fragmentation. It is worried that the increasing dominance of certain countries in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors could negatively affect the economies of ASEAN. The tension over the establishment of global institutions and governance has also increased significantly in Vietnam due to the different initiatives launched by major powers. These include the China's Global Security Initiative and the US' Indo-Pacific Strategy.
Opportunities and Challenges:
Despite the increasing tensions, many in the region still believe that there is a need to maintain the balance of power in the region through competition. This is because if the competition does not occur, the region will become a hegemonic one, and ASEAN will become less important. And the emergence of strategic competition could provide the ASEAN with a greater level of agency and strategic space, allowing it to maintain its focus on the Indo-Pacific and attract more middle and major powers. It can also help member states diversify their relationships and reduce their dependence on China. In addition, competition in certain areas could encourage innovation and improve the global community's governance and technology systems.
Strategic competition can make it harder for nations in Southeast Asia to maintain their relationships with rival powers. The trust deficit among the major powers could easily spill over to other parties. For instance, it becomes harder for Vietnam to work with a major power without raising suspicions. It is also harder for Vietnam to maintain its strategic partnership with China and the US due to their close ties. For instance, after the Chinese Communist Party's 20th congress, many in the US questioned the intentions of Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang when he visited China. It is also harder for Vietnam to maintain its "be a friend to all" policy if its major allies are at odds with each other. After the conflict in Ukraine, Russia and the West pressured Vietnam to be on their side.
The presence of major powers in Southeast Asia and the lack of training for its members have placed the ASEAN, which is a vital part of Vietnam's foreign policy, under unique challenges. As a result, the organization is now operating as a post-Cold War product that doesn't deal with strategic and ideological competition. Instead, it focuses on addressing security issues. Despite the importance of competition in maintaining a balanced region, Southeast Asia is still concerned about the potential impact of events such as the South China Sea on its security. It is believed that China's activities in the region are aimed at challenging the US and its allies.
Even though ASEAN coastal states lack the necessary knowledge about the activities taking place in these domains, an event such as a collision between nuclear-powered submarines could have a significant impact on their environment and security. In theory, strategic competition should not be considered a zero-sum game. It can be beneficial if it doesn't lead to confrontation.
The Triangular Relationship (China, U.S. and Vietnam):
Due to the increasing tensions between China and the US, investors have started to look for other Asian bases. Vietnam has become an ideal choice as it offers fewer political and economic risks. In July, US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen visited Vietnam and discussed the country's efforts to reduce its dependence on China. She noted that it can play a key role in helping reduce the risk of global shocks by diversifying its supply chains. Last year, the two-way trade between the US and Vietnam reached US$139 billion, which is second only to China's. As the United States is now Vietnam's Southeast Asian neighbor, the two countries' trade volume is expected to grow even further. The goal of both China and the US is to increase their economic engagement with Vietnam. This is done through the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership. Some of the activities that have been carried out between China and Vietnam, such as the relocation of the production facilities of Chinese companies to the country, have been designed to meet their mutual interests.
Due to the intensifying tension between the US and China, Vietnam has been regarded as the biggest winner in this development. It is focused on increasing its economic and trade cooperation with China, which is achieved through leveraging its technological transfer and investment opportunities from the US. Vietnam's diplomacy has been carefully planned. This is evidenced by the country's increasing ties with the US. This was initiated when Biden and Nguyen Phu Trong, Vietnam's paramount leader, looked into the 2023 diplomatic calendar, and had identified a possibility of meeting during the G20 summit in India.
The increasing number of countries that are also looking for alternative routes to maintain their relations with the two major powers, Vietnam is not actively hedging its foreign policy. It is still committed to maintaining a balanced and independent foreign policy. For the time being, it needs both the US and China to be its partners.
Vietnam's Perspective: Driving its Interests
As a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Vietnam's interests align with those of its neighbors. Its main objective is to maintain peace and stability, promote economic growth, and improve people's welfare. Its territorial integrity and sovereignty are the most important factors that matter to it. It is also committed to safeguarding its autonomy and independence.
In terms of foreign policy, Vietnam has various options available to it. These include maintaining its strategic autonomy and neutrality, hedging, and investing in international law and multilateralism. Although there is no "sweet spot" for Singapore, there may be no such thing for the ASEAN either. During a private roundtable discussion in 2023, Tony Blair, a former British Prime Minister, said that the ASEAN should regularly ask itself how it can navigate through the competition among major powers. He noted that there would be no constant answer to this question. The policies and options that ASEAN member states have adopted are based on their unique situation and their domestic and national interests. Each country's approach to foreign policy is also influenced by its relationship with the major powers.
Vietnam's Dynamic shift and its neutrality in foreign policy and autonomy:
A comprehensive approach to foreign policy can help Vietnam's neighbors maintain their interests and align with the world. This is because the various factors that affect the region's strategic competition and the complex relationship between its member states have become more unpredictable. Neutrality should not be the main foreign policy option for ASEAN member nations. Since it is the region's primary theater of strategic competition, it cannot afford to lose its relevance. A policy of dynamic or active neutrality would be a more effective option. Whereas strategic autonomy does not preclude the possibility of taking sides on certain issues. As long as the decisions to take sides are based on the principles and interests of the ASEAN member states and not on the major powers' interests, the actions should not be regarded as inconsistent with the organization's principles. As a region that is committed to maintaining its independence and autonomy, the members of the Association Of Southeast Asian Nations should also support multilateralism and the rule-based international system. They should also explore ways to make their decision-making process more flexible.
Conclusion
While ASEAN struggles with maintaining its strategic autonomy and managing its territorial conflicts, other regional powers are looking for ways to engage with it. These include maintaining a rules-based order, enhancing mutual resilience, and diversifying trade opportunities. The multiple joint activities and initiatives that have been carried out in the past couple of years have been geared toward increasing Vietnam's engagement with its neighbors. In addition, different strategies have been launched to enhance the country's engagement with the region. The other powers should be utilized by the ASEAN to help its members overcome the region's binary-choice dilemma. The engagement of other powers can help strengthen the perception of the world's multipolar order among the countries in the Indo-Pacific. To enhance its engagement with its neighbors, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations should work with other regional powers such as India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand to promote its understanding of the UN's rules-based order. This can be done through the implementation of international law and multilateralism, as well as through collective resilience.
Hence, expressing their concerns about the risks associated with strategic competition, Southeast Asian countries often play down the advantages and necessity of such activities. Instead of passively distancing itself from such competition, they should actively engage in managing it. Doing so will enable the region to maintain its relevance and prevent both major powers from adopting zero-sum approaches. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations should not shy away from taking sides when it comes to issues related to its core principles. These include the establishment of a Zone of Peace, the freedom and neutrality, and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo–Pacific. ASEAN member states should acknowledge that the region's integration has changed. It is now time for them to take bold steps to ensure that the future of the region remains vibrant.
Pic Courtsey-CESCUBE
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
