A Complex Diplomatic Landscape: Egypt's Role and Challenges in the Israel-Palestine Conflict

Following the attacks, Egypt's government released a statement warning of the dangers of the deteriorating situation between Israel and Palestine. It did not address the various issues that have been raised by the Palestinians, such as the kidnapping of civilians, Hamas' activities in Israel, and the killing of civilians. This is consistent with the views of most Arab countries, which have placed the blame for the violence on the Israeli government. Egypt's President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi stated that the Israeli Defense Forces' actions had exceeded the country's response to the attacks. According to him, the collective punishment would become a form of retribution. And Sisi must manage the conflict carefully due to the public's pro-Palestinian sentiments and his own unpopularity.

There are various reasons why Egypt's government would not allow Palestinians to leave Gaza. It has been a full partner of Israel in carrying out its blockade of the area, and it would rather see the humanitarian situation in Gaza improved than allow the residents to cross the Sinai Peninsula. It also doesn't want to be associated with the influx of Palestinians. As it is already struggling with the influx of people from Sudan's civil war, Egypt may not be able to handle the large number of Palestinians that could come to the country. Even if the government did not receive 317,000 Sudanese refugees seeking protection, it would still be incapable of managing the influx.

Also, Egypt is concerned about the potential threat that it could face from groups such as the Islamic State and Hamas, which have been operating in the Sinai Peninsula for the past decade. Allowing large numbers Palestinians into the country could strengthen these extremist groups. Another reason is that Egypt's government insists that the Palestinians in Gaza are Israel's responsibility. It also fears that the country will be used as a scapegoat for the situation in the area. For decades, Egypt occupied Gaza until it was forced to leave during the Six-Day War in 1967. Over the years, there have been various discussions about an Arab solution to the situation in Gaza. It is believed that Israel could use this strategy to force the residents of Gaza into Egypt.

Egypt's relationship with Hamas:

Hamas and the Egyptian government have had an uneasy relationship. The group was established during the 1980s from the Palestine branch of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. Its objective was to carry out attacks against Israel and counter the activities of another militant organization, known as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Since it has a relationship with the Islamic Brotherhood, Egypt's leaders have tried to control the group in Gaza in order to prevent it from contributing to the instability in the Nile Valley. This has led to the establishment of an intelligence service in the area.

Previously, the presidents of Egypt and the General Intelligence Service were able to help secure a cease-fire between the militant groups Hamas and Israel. However, at present, neither Hamas nor Israel is interested in dropping out of the cease-fire. Despite of all this, the US is still pushing for the establishment of humanitarian corridors in the region.

The peace treaty between Egypt and Israel was signed in 1979. It has survived various crises. Some of these include the invasion of Lebanon in 1982, the first and second intifada, the invasion of the West Bank by the Jewish state, and the conflict between Hamas and Israel since 2005. During the 2014 Gaza conflict, Egypt tried to convince Israel to destroy the group, but it refused, citing security concerns and the potential for a power vacuum in the area. Now, these positions have changed, which is putting pressure on the relationship. At the moment, there is no sign that Egypt would break its ties with Israel, as it is still benefiting from the country's assistance in securing the Sinai Peninsula. Even though it will be a challenging partner for Israel, the US, and other Western allies, Egypt will continue to play a significant role in addressing the situation in Gaza.

The conflict between Israel and Hamas continues to affect Egypt's diplomatic presence. Before the war, it was not regarded as a significant player in Arab politics. Its foreign policy was also heavily impacted by the 2011 uprisings, and it was struggling with an ailing economy. But, Egypt has leverage over Gaza and has important interests there. Egypt's relationship with Hamas has been strained. Its military has been in the Gaza Strip for almost two decades, and it has been closely monitoring the security situation in the area. Despite its harsh stance against Hamas, Egypt has a long history of working with the militant group. After it seized control of Gaza in 2007, it became the de facto ruler. In other crises, Egypt was able to facilitate prisoner swaps and help negotiate a cease-fire.

As the international community tries to resolve the conflict in Gaza, Egypt has a major role to play. One of its most significant achievements is its control over the Rafah crossing. This is the only official crossing point into the territory that's not controlled by Israel, and it's frequently used to exert pressure on Hamas. The Rafah border is a vital part of the Gaza Strip, as it allows aid to enter the area, and it is also likely to be used as an exit point for foreign nationals. Israel desires to work with Egypt to prevent weapons from entering the territory through this border.

Besides Rafah, the Islamist group Hamas has also constructed a network of tunnels into Egypt from the Gaza Strip. Through these tunnels, people in Gaza can buy various products, such as food and livestock. Israel often acquiesces to this type of smuggling as it's supposed to help prevent a humanitarian crisis. But, since the group has been using these tunnels to transport weapons into Gaza, fighters from the group have been passing through them to places such as Lebanon. Despite its failure to prevent the flow of commerce through the tunnels, Egypt has been able to successfully crack down on the network of illicit tunnels. This has prompted Israel to ask for an end to the smuggling as a part of any future negotiations.

Hamas has a history of working with Egypt's military. Even though Egypt doesn't like the group, it's believed that it can still reach understandings with the army. This is why, despite the threats Israel's defense minister made against Hamas, the government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has remained open to finding ways to resolve the conflict with the militant organization.

It's hard to predict who will emerge as the new political leader in the Gaza Strip. However, it's likely that they will seek to work with Egypt to alleviate the humanitarian situation in the area. Some of the group's factions may also try to maintain their ability to smuggle weapons into Gaza. In addition, they're likely to seek a cease-fire that allows for the evacuation of civilians from the Gaza Strip. Also, whoever is left in the area will look for an Egyptian guarantee that the fighting will stop. Israel will urge Egypt to prevent the smuggling and apprehend those who might try to leave the territory. The Egyptian government will then determine the conditions of the agreement.

Even though the people of Gaza and Hamas don't have a huge amount of money to offer Egypt, they can still use their influence to improve the security of the country in the Sinai Peninsula. They can also share the profits from the smuggling operations. If Egypt's alternative to having a deal with Hamas or its successors involves violence and chaos in the region, an understanding with the group would be more advantageous. The stakes are high for Egypt as it plays a leading role in the Gaza Strip. Once the center of Arab culture and politics, it has been marginalized due to the rise of the Persian Gulf and the country's growing problems. Playing a leading role in the conflict between Israel and Hamas has given the Sisi government a boost of prestige. In addition to being able to influence the conflict, Egypt is also able to benefit economically from its involvement. In 1991, former President Hosni Mubarak was able to secure over $10 billion in debt relief from the US and its allies in exchange for helping the country during the Gulf War. Today, Egypt's foreign debt is much larger, and its economy is struggling due to its repayment obligations.

If Egypt can play a leading role in the resolution of the Gaza Strip's issues, it can greatly benefit the entire region. Gulf governments and Western nations would have to ensure that Cairo sees the financial benefits of doing so. For over a decade, Egypt has been battling an insurgency that was composed of various groups such as criminal gangs, Bedouin, and jihadis. Since the smuggling operations in the area have been helping fund and arm the insurgents, Egypt is worried that a flood of refugees from the area could destabilize the region. Despite the common cause that Israel and Egypt have on security issues, the country's rulers have no plans of supporting the Palestinians' depopulation. After over three decades, the public has become more sympathetic to the Palestinians' cause. They believe that allowing refugees to resettle in Egypt as a permanent solution would be a betrayal of their rights.

Also, the United States is leading the diplomacy on the Gaza Strip, and Washington is not always pleased with the way the Sisi government has been handling the situation. In response to human rights issues, the US government decided to withhold some of its military aid to Egypt. In a shocking indictment, prosecutors claimed that Egyptian intelligence agents had been recruiting prominent US politicians, including Senator Bob Menendez, to use their position to benefit the government of Egypt. The allegations show the strained relationship between the two countries.

Conclusion:

Arab governments have also expressed their concerns about the relationship between Egypt and the US. Due to the country's importance and the price that it is willing to pay for its cooperation, it is not always easy for Egypt to be a successful partner. Although, Egyptian President Sisi held a peace conference with the Palestinians and Israel, but it did not produce any notable results. As the region continues to be affected by the conflict, Egypt will become an important player. The US should not marginalize its ally. Egypt's cooperation is needed to address the humanitarian situation in Gaza, such as ensuring the delivery of medicine and fuel through the Rafah crossing. In the long run, it is also expected to play a key role in supporting a political arrangement in the area, whether it is through the ruling Hamas group or a caretaker government.

As the leading Arab state, Egypt will inevitably play a role in implementing the peace agreement between Israel and Palestine. It will also need to ensure that the border between Egypt and Israel is secure. As a responsible leader, Cairo can influence the Arab states to ratify the deal. As an agreement is expected to be reached, Egypt will seek various benefits. For instance, the US can provide financial assistance to Egypt, which is currently owed billions of dollars. In addition, the US can help the country fight against terrorism in the Sinai Peninsula. However, this is not an easy task, as transnational jihadist groups there are known to target the US. Intelligence cooperation is an area that Egypt can start to improve. Some people will object to the increasing engagement with Egypt's government, which has been accused of widespread human rights violations. However, this shouldn't be viewed as a negative development, as both parties can use this opportunity to reset their relationship. Hence, the conflict in Gaza cannot be solved solely by the US and Egypt. Both of these countries have to work together, as the relationship often gets strained due to the lack of specific projects that the two nations share in common. The situation in the area could become an issue for both parties.

Pic Courtsey-Bank Phrom at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)