Myanmar Crisis and what the world needs to do
After a military takeover, Myanmar is on the verge of collapse. Following the military coup, there has been bloodshed and instability, and the nation is also severely suffering from COVID-19 and the ensuing economic catastrophe. Former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, who was condemned to years' imprisonment by the regime while still being tried on other charges, may be held for a number of years after living under home confinement for nearly fifteen in the 1990s and the early 2000s.
However, the 54-million Southeast Asian nation is fading from the news as the world's focus shifts to other crucial global challenges. Myanmar appears to have entirely reverted to authoritarianism in the meantime, with no sign of hope for the independence of its people.
The political, health, and economic crises in Burma are closely connected together and do not exist as distinct occurrences. The majority of people had great aspirations for the developing democratic system, particularly the younger generation who had grown up with extensive freedom of expression and connection to the outside world thanks to the internet. Their dreams were dashed by the coup, and many young people became resolved to either overthrow the military or commit suicide. After a short time in which demonstrations were largely permitted, the Tatmadaw started to ruthlessly repress the civil disobedience movement (CDM). By mid-September 2021, more than 1,000 people had been killed and 6,000 more had been arrested. As a result, some resistance activists have begun to turn radical, increasing the danger of a state breakdown.
Rising emergency needs currently threaten the country, and an oncoming financial catastrophe appears more likely as a result of pandemic-related value-chain disruptions, a shrinking labour force, food insecurity, resource devastation, and cash difficulties at home. Additionally, the country's external position is perilous as a result of capital flight and new sanctions from western nations. The interconnectivity of various economic problems in Myanmar has increased the complexity of the situation. Any civic turmoil has a severe effect on the domestic industry in a number of ways. The bloodshed that followed the coup and decreased productivity and growth of the nation's primary economic drivers—human and physical capital—also decreased the return on investment for economic capital. Additionally, the coup's negative repercussions have always increased the pace of capital decline in the country. Since the COVID-19 epidemic began in 2020, and particularly after the army took control of the country, the majority of businesses have had declines in sales, cash flow problems, and challenges using banking and internet services. As a result, the population has suffered in an environment where the coup and pandemic's cumulative effects lost Myanmar some 1.6 million jobs in 2021. While the armed war had a significant negative impact on rural farmers, the manufacturing, apparel, tourist, and retail and hospitality had year-over-year job losses of 31%, 27%, and 30%, respectively.
The international reaction to the issue has been mediocre at best, and Myanmar has not received the attention it merits. The major nations have been concentrating on some other problems such as those in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and now Ukraine while also responding to the worldwide pandemic. It seems sense that the West, in particular, thinks it has limited power and few valid choices to affect what happens on the ground. Although the U.S., EU, and UK have implemented a number of penalties against regime officials and army businesses, these have had very little of an effect on the government's ability to function. For a while to come, the junta will be a cause of unrest. The army will continue to be a solitary, rogue player due to its widespread war crimes, international sanctions, and growing allegiance to Moscow and Beijing if it suppresses the civilian opposition in Myanmar. Furthermore, democracy and respect for human rights remain essential components of American foreign policy. Because of the regime's worldwide authoritarian resurgence's backing from both Russia and China, only a democratic, federal Myanmar can long-term stabilise the nation. In fact, the fight for democracy in Myanmar is similar to the one going on in the US right now. Both are battling tense internal national identity conflicts that are based on disagreements over matters of race, religion, and individual liberties.
These measures should also involve collaboration with like-minded ASEAN neighbours on a bilateral level, particularly with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, who have spearheaded Southeast Asia's countercoup efforts. Finally, U.S. policy should attempt to enlist the help of India and Thailand, which are more receptive to the junta, as well as Australia and Japan, two of its democratic friends. The United States should reassess its dedication to the country's freedom as the consequences of the coup in Myanmar continued to destabilise the region, wreak havoc on its people, and destroy its economy. It is important to remember Myanmar's fight for democratization, and the national defense and values of the United States depend greatly on how the coup is resolved.
Notes
1. In a World of Crises, Don’t Forget Myanmar. https://thediplomat.com/2022/07/in-a-world-of-crises-dont-forget-myanmar/
2. Myanmar: Coup, COVID-19, and the ongoing economic crisis. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/coup-covid-19-and-the-ongoing-economic-crisis/
3. Why is the Myanmar crisis such a challenge for ASEAN? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/3/why-is-the-myanmar-crisis-such-a-challenge-for-asean
4. One Year On from the Myanmar Coup. https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/one-year-myanmar-coup
5. The Myanmar crisis: Escalating humanitarian emergencies. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-myanmar-crisis-escalating-humanitarian-emergencies/
6. Myanmar’s Troubled History: Coups, Military Rule, and Ethnic Conflict. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/myanmar-history-coup-military-rule-ethnic-conflict-rohingya
7. What you need to know about the crisis in Myanmar. https://www.rescue.org/article/what-you-need-know-about-crisis-myanmar
8. Myanmar’s “Triple Crisis”: Impact on the Pro-Democracy Movement. https://www.mei.edu/publications/myanmars-triple-crisis-impact-pro-democracy-movement
Pic Courtsey-Nandan Singh Bhaisora
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
