Kim Jong-un resurfaces: Debates about North Korea's future continues

Amid the surging debates on Kim’s whereabouts, it soon transpired that Kim is safe and healthy when he suddenly resurfaced. After Kim Jong-un’s prolonged absence for 21 days from the public view triggered global rumours outside North Korea that he may be seriously ill, incapacitated or already dead, reports by state media on May 2 that Kim attended a Sunchon fertilizer ribbon cutting event in the South Pyongan province, 50 kilometers north of Pyongyang, took the world by surprise. While Kim’s absence from public view sparked a storm of international media speculation about his health, South Korea, China, Russia, Taiwan and the US believed that Kim was alive and still in power. Others felt that Kim was unwell and/or is isolating himself to prevent catching Covid-19. There are still many more rumours and most were backed by circumstantial evidence or just mere speculation given the culture of secrecy that characterises the state. Since independent journalists were not given access to cover the Sunchon event, the information and content of the image provided cannot be independently verified. Thus speculation on Kim’s health continues. 

As if to prove a point, the state media released a photo of Kim cutting the ribbon at the fertiliser factory and conducted the inspection visit on May 1 to mark International Labour Day. Kim was shown in the photo joined by his sister Kim Yo-jong, as well as Pak Pong-ju, Kim Dok-hun, Pak, Thae-song, and Jo Yong-won, all close to Kim. Soon a video of the ribbon cutting ceremony started circulating. 

Following his absence from public view for three weeks, rumours about him had gathered momentum. Many started asking about his whereabouts and all had different answers. Kim’s absence from an important anniversary event on 15 April rekindled speculation over his potential health problems. April 15 was the 108^th birth anniversary of the national founder and Kim’s grandfather, Kim Il-sung, marked as a national holiday known as the Day of the Sun. When senior officials paid tribute to the embalmed body of Kim Il-sung enshrined in the Kumsusan Palace of Sun, Kim was absent unlike in the past. His photo also did not appear in the photos released by party mouthpiece Rodong Sinmun.

While one version said that Kim was missing because he suffered an ankle sprain, other versions held the view that he had a kidney malfunction, underwent failed heart surgery, went into lockdown to avoid the coronavirus, or sustained injuries during a botched missile test. Other rumours said that he was either in coma and brain dead, or actually dead, or walking around the eastern port city of Wonsan, where he has a private beach resort. According to satellite images released by a US think tank, a special train probably belonging to Kim was parked at a coastal resort town in the east of the country. This gave rise to speculation about his whereabouts, poor health, and even death.

Speculation about Kim’s health intensified following a report by the Daily NK, a South Korean website, on 20 April that claimed Kim had undergone a cardiovascular procedure. The original Korean article suggested that Kim had received something like an angioplasty or stent insertion, but the Daily NK English version of the article the following day used the term “heart surgery”, which generated more confusion and speculation about Kim’s health and whether his condition was grave.

According to Washington-based monitoring project 38 North, the 250-meter-long train had been spotted at the "leadership station" in the Wonsan resort area on April 21 and 23. Though the station was specifically reserved for the use of the Kim family, the presence of the train did not mean that Kim was there. It also did not mention anything about his health condition. None of these reports were verified, and all could have had truths and also untruths. The truism, however, was that Kim’s whereabouts remained unknown till he resurfaced on May 2. He was last seen at a ruling party meeting in Pyongyang on 11 April.

What led to the explosion of rumours is that Kim is overweight, fond of alcohol, chain cigarette smoker and has a history of health problems. According to the Seoul-based website Daily NK, Kim underwent heart surgery on 12 April and was recovering at a villa outside Pyongyang. The same day, CNN cited unnamed US officials, who said they were “monitoring intelligence”. It suggested Kim was in “grave danger” after the surgery. Then came the most startling news on 18 April from the TMZ, a celebrity gossip and entertainment news website reporting that Kim had died. 

While none of the rumours could be correct, none could be wrong either, it was thought. North Korea not only did not respond to the rumours but said that Kim was still conducting official business. The lack of North Korean response gave rumour mongers to conclude that Kim was either seriously sick or already dead. In a closed society such as North Korea, it was unusual that such rumours were not rebutted. This led to belief that even if Kim were not dead, he was incapacitated or in vegetative state or brain dead.

However, one thing was missed by those who circulated such rumours. If one sees North Korea’s past behaviour on such cases, it does not react to rumours about the leader’s health. For example, when Kim went out of public view in 2014 for 41 days, such rumours too circulated about his health. North Korea remained silent from making any official statement. Kim eventually resurfaced using a cane as he experienced “discomfort”. The state media did not elaborate further. Even in the past in 2008 when Kim’s father Kim Jong-Il had a stroke in 2008 and was in coma for 51 days, North Korea did not issue any official statement. This time around too, the state media did not address Kim’s health directly. Instead, it reported that Kim sent a series of personal notes to world leaders or groups of North Koreans.

South Korea refuted reports about Kim’s health. It said that as per its intelligence reports, Kim was alive and well, staying in the Wonsan area since 13 April. Moon Chung-in, the special advisor to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, remarked: “No suspicious movements have so far been detected."

Though satellite images showed a train “probably belonging to Kim” was parked at Wonsan, it did not confirm if Kim was there. What added credibility to the rumour was that China sent a delegation, including medical professionals, to North Korea to advise on Kim. Further, Pyongyang saw a surge in panic buying, especially of cleaning supplies and imported foods. It remains unclear, however, if the panic buying was related to the rumour about Kim’s health or to talk of an extended coronavirus-related lockdown.      

Though North Korea has insisted it has no coronavirus cases, experts almost unanimously say that is impossible. As one of the world’s most closed societies and with an extreme system of censorship, no information can be credible. Without any official confirmation from Pyongyang, it could be inappropriate go draw any firm conclusion.

Under the circumstances, caution was best advised. In the past too, there had been rumours related to declining health or death of Kim Jong-un, his father Kim Jong-Il and his grandfather Kim Il-sung but each time they proved to be false. Could this time too, the rumours be the same, it was thought? From all available indicators, this did not seem to be so but eventually it did. It was probably something happened to Kim’s health but it was difficult to know what it was. With no heir to succeed, this time the situation was different and the speculation on the succession issue was relevant.

Pleasure Squad theory                   

Another startling revelation, if true, that would shock any civilized world was that Kim who had resurrected one of the regime’s darkest traditions – “Pleasure Squad” or Kippumjo of secret sex entertainers first created by his grandfather Kim Il-sung – was actually sheltering from the coronavirus pandemic in a secure ultra-protected luxury compound where his Pleasure Squad provide entertainment for high-ranking officials. The 2,000-strong harem is said to be made to sing and dance for the nation’s elite but also take part in bizarre sexual games and orgies. It is believed that a third strand of the Pleasure Squad, the Manjokjo, is explicitly tasked with providing sexual services.

The Pleasure Squad that was started in the 1970s by the founder Kim Il-sung. After Kim Il-sung's death, his son, Kim Jong-il, maintained the Pleasure Squad and had a string of mistresses to boot. And other members of the Kim dynasty were said to exploit the girls too. British paper The Sun reported that Kenji Fujimoto, a sushi chef who worked for the Kims between 1989 and 2001, claimed Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law, Jang Song Thaek, would "audition" girls for the dictator during his reign. Jang Song Thaek used to recruit girls for Kim Jong-il. According to Fujimoto, in order to get the auditions, girls would have to have sex with Jang Song Thaek first. Jang was ultimately executed by firing squad on the orders of his nephew, Kim Jong-un, because he was a perceived threat to the despot's authority. Kim is known to live a life of lavish indulgence, creating an entirely new pleasure squad of his own in 2015.

The Pleasure Squad was disbanded when Kim Jong-il died in 2011 and Kim Jong-un came to power. Kim Jong-un did not trust anyone in his father's administration — including the women and girls of the Pleasure Squad. The women who entertained his father knew many secrets and they have now been ordered to promise not to reveal any information before being sent back to their hometowns. Members of the new Pleasure Squad received training in the Koryo Hotel in Pyongyang. The tyrant was said to have "developed a taste" for the "pliable maidens" while being treated for gout in 2014. When the dictator’s location and state of his health remained a mystery until he resurfaced, some reports and analysts said he fled to a luxury resort in the port city located along the eastern side of thr Korean Peninsula to avoid catching the coronavirus and to recuperate from his illness. The UK paper speculated that he might have his harem with him.

Succession debate

Irrespective of whatever reason Kim was absent for three weeks from public eye, the question that arises: why did Kim’s absence for 21 days raise so much rumour globally about his health and the subsequent presumption that he was so much sick, if not dead, that his succession issue and the future of Kim dynasty and the state became of international interest? Such speculations were not without justification. Such a long absence also led analysts to predict that his sister Kim Yo-jong seen to have been groomed to be his successor without any official announcement would take over if her brother is suddenly unable to rule.

How did the speculation start in the first place? It was, if true, Kim’s first public appearance since April 11, when he presided over a ruling Workers’ Party meeting to discuss the coronavirus and reappoint his sister as an alternate member of the powerful decision-making Politburo of the party’s Central Committee. Kim Yo-jong’s confirmation of substantial role in the government gave reason to the analysts and Korea watchers to connect that the decision to empower her was a planned move in view of Kim Jong-un’s deteriorating health.

Kim’s absence on April 15 birthday celebration for his late grandfather Kim Il-sung led to the troubling question about the future of the secretive, nuclear-armed state. The world in general and the US in particular could not afford to ignore about North Korea’s possession of huge amount of arsenal since Kim had not stopped to threaten hitting the US mainland while diplomacy between Kim and US President Donald Trump had stalled. The worry and fear about a possible scenario of regime instability seemed to be real.

It was reasonable for the US and South Korea to worry about the possible chaos in the country if Kim were to be sidelined owing to health reasons, incapacitated or even dead. They started to draw worst-case scenario, and with valid grounds, that if chaos is unleashed, refugees from North Korea would start flooding South Korea and China. The possibility of military hardliners letting loose nuclear weapons was another bother.                              

Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul was apt when he observed: “The world is largely unprepared for instability in North Korea. Washington, Seoul and Tokyo need tighter coordination on contingency plans while international organizations need more resources and less controversy over the role of China.” Shamshad Ahmed Khan, an Indian scholar teaching international relations at a University in Dubai has a different take. According to him, it could have been a ploy on the part of Kim Jong-un to deliberately remain out of the scene to enable him to gauge how the world powers behave/intervene in his absence. He further argues that had he indeed died, his sister could have been at the helm of affairs immediately to avoid instability. Shamshad’s opinion overlooks the fact that a female to succeed in a patriarchal system would never be smooth as the military is unlikely to accept such a proposition. There could be multiple opinions and views and all have merit in one way or other.

How did South Korea react to this sudden development? The Blue House in Seoul said it did not detect any unusual signs in North Korea or any emergency reaction by the ruling party, military and cabinet and therefore the rumours were false. President Moon Jae-in was convinced that Kim was still in charge and managing the state affairs from an unspecified location outside of Pyongyang. South Korea’s Unification Ministry, which deals with inter-Korean affairs, while confirming Kim’s visit to the fertilizer factory opined that it was part of his efforts to emphasise economic development. The ministry expressed dismay that the “groundless” rumours caused “unnecessary confusion and cost” for South Korea’s society and financial markets. While downplaying speculation about Kim’s health, it felt that Kim was in poor health following surgery.

While Trump declined to comment on Kim’s reappearance, North Korean state media was carrying out routine activities outside public view such as sending greetings to the leaders of Syria, Cuba and South Africa and expressing gratitude to workers building tourist facilities in the coastal town of Wonsan, where it was speculated he was staying or recuperating from the surgery.

The ground for speculation about Kim’s health conditions was rife because in 2014 he suddenly vanished from public eye for nearly six weeks and then reappeared with a cane. This time the ground for suspicion about his health was strong as he is overweight, smokes and drinks, and has a family history of heart issues.

What now that Kim is proved to be alive as the latest reappearance suggests but unable to rule, will his sister be installed as the leader to continue with the Kim’s hereditary dynasty that began with the present ruler’s grandfather? The other related question that arises is will the core members of North Korea’s elite, mostly men in their 60s and 70s, accept a young and untested female leader who lacks military credentials? Still another scenario is a collective leadership will take charge with Kim Yo-jong at the helm till Kim’s son believed to be 10 years old comes of age to take over. The worst case scenario could be violent power struggle that could be pregnant with unintended consequences as the future of the nuclear arsenal shall remain unknown. Once the collective leadership fails and violent power struggle breaks out, the possession of nuclear arsenal as a means of deterrence would have been rendered meaningless. The consequences could be devastating for the region and the world, even if Kim is alive but unable to rule because of health conditions.

Is the succession issue so problematic if something happens to the ruling leader Kim Jong-un? With nuclear weapons in its possession, the regime is not expected to come under immediate threat and Kim is unlikely to face the fate that was faced by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein or Libya’s President Muammar Mohammed Abu Minyar Gaddafi. The summit diplomacy initiated by Kim that led to two summits with the US President and summits with Moon, Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin demonstrated to the world that the North Korean leader deserved to be treated at par with any leader of any country. Even if the summits yielded no outcome, it was a victory for Kim that he sat along the table with the US President on equal terms and also bargained hard without yielding space. Viewed from this perspective, Kim was never a loser but only a winner.

So, the country seems to have a formal process in place if the leader is no longer around, which is why it was extraordinary for Kim to remain in hibernation for three weeks and even missing the ceremony honouring his grandfather’s birthday. Assuming that Kim’s health is indeed in bad shape, the question of how a third North Korean leadership transition would proceed remains unanswered.

How then to speculate what the possible succession would be when the times comes? Public discussion has focussed little on this, what the process would be, what institutions would matter, who the possible relevant actors would be, and what their interests are. If past experience is any guide, North Korea has no succession plan but does have a formal process for leadership transition. The rules and institutions are explained in the Workers’ Party of Korea Bylaws revised during the Seventh Party Congress in May 2016.      

Though another Kim family member shall succeed as per the bylaws, under emergency conditions the senior leadership can have extensive powers and would be under no compulsion to follow precedent unequivocally. However, if it is perceived that there is a significant deviation from formal rules and procedures, it could be perceived that the core terms of succession regulations are contested. Such a situation could lead to instability or violence. The focus would then shift who controls the guns and the money of the country.    

While the Politburo would likely play a critical role in any succession crisis, any succession could have serious implications for numerous internal and external actors. Since North Korea is a personalised dictatorship, and Kim Jong-un virtually controls all institutional powers, it remains unclear how much the rules would be respected in letter and spirit should the succession issue really arises. Under the circumstance, the way Kim’s sister Kim Jo-yong has assumed greater power and groomed, much depends upon her calibre to take the helm when the situation arises. Her relative inexperience and lack of charisma could be compensated by the support, advice and guidance of Choe Ryong Hae, probably the closest embodiment of the Paektu bloodline without being a Kim family member. Who Choe Ryong Hae is and what his past has been is an issue for another commentary. From all possible scenarios, the one closer to the reality is that should anything happen to Kim in the future, his sister shall take control of the state and continue to keep the Kim dynasty alive. Only the extreme pessimist would hold the view that the regime would collapse if Kim suddenly disappears.

(Pic courtesy- Steve Barkar at unsplash.com)

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Prof. Rajaram Panda is Lok Sabha Research Fellow, Parliament of India and Member, Governing Council of Indian Council of World Affairs, and Centre for Security and Strategic Studies, both in New Delhi. He was also Senior Fellow at IDSA and ICCR Chair Professor at Reitaku University, Japan, E-mail: rajaram.panda@gmail.com