Japan-America-India (JAI): A feasible alternative to QUAD 2.0

JAI-A Convergence of Vision

On 1^st December 2018, the G-20 summit was held in Buenos Aires, Argentina and on the side-lines of the G-20 summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the first-ever Trilateral  Cooperation Meeting between Japan-America-India (JAI) coined the acronym ‘JAI’ which stands for success in Hindi and opined that “India will continue to work together on shared fundamental democratic values, freedom, and rule of law”. This meeting paved the way for a new plurilateral grouping aimed to promote connectivity, maritime cooperation and security, security in the domain of space and cyberspace, quality infrastructure investment and a stable ‘Indo-Pacific construct’. Prime Minister Modi also highlighted that together, JAI could play a bigger role for world peace, prosperity and stability as all three are strategic and economic partners, good friends and have a good understanding of one another. He emphasised the importance of building a consensus on a strategic architecture in the region based on ideas and principles of ‘mutual benefit’ and respecting one another’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The second trilateral meeting of JAI which was held on 28^th June 2019 in Osaka yet again on the side-lines of G-20 Summit hosted by Japan. Prime Minister Modi emphasised upon “the need to aim for peace and stability in the realm of Indo-Pacific further aiming for the peaceful development of the region and its overall security”. During this meeting, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe commented that “Free and Open Indo-Pacific is something we would strive forward, and work in closer coordination with the three nations aiming for trilateral cooperation”. The White House too released a statement where they spoke about the reinforcement of core democratic values, and aimed to promote global security and prosperity and aim for a resilient quality secure infrastructure and commented that, “India as an Asian continent and maritime power had interests in Eurasia, as well as Indo-Pacific. So, JAI is important for India”.

It is important to understand why this grouping was being formed. China was the focal point of threat perceptions like expanding their navy in the Indo-Pacific and building infrastructure in several countries dotting the maritime zone. Chinese maritime aggression in the South China Sea, East China and the Indo-Pacific Ocean increased, and as these countries understood this, they urged the need to ensure peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. They also aimed at sharing their understanding of the complex security situation and also deal with the balance of power in the region. Therefore, JAI aimed to deal with quality infrastructure investment.

India has shown interest to join the Blue Dot Network program which is a multi-stakeholder initiative as it would deal with global infrastructure construction development projects which would be opened to countries, public and private companies and NGOs within an open and inclusive framework. This Blue Dot Network was launched at the 35^th ASEAN Summit in 2019 by the U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) and Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and aimed at market-driven nominated infrastructure projects basing on transparency and financial sustainability in the region of Indo-Pacific and the world. For India, the Blue Dot Network would be a way for cooperating on infrastructure projects, but the modernisation of infrastructure would address the regional inequality issues as well as create new growth opportunities. It would also help India’s Act East Policy, which in turn would also create new exchanges between its neighbours, spreading it across to the ASEAN nations helping their development and if the ASEAN nations join this Blue Dot Network, it would help counter China. The U.S. initiative of Blue Dot Network can be seen as a direct response to the Belt and Road Initiative by China. The newly created U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) has a fund of 60 billion dollars which will the main financial vehicle of the Blue Dot Network, hence, all this could result in greater Sino-American confrontation.

JAI also led to forging a plan for a strong naval cooperation in the Indo-Pacific in the 2019 meeting, which was a follow up on a recent joint exercise in the South China Sea, and the three leaders also discussed the ways to jointly build infrastructure and ensure peace, stability, and security in the maritime zone. There were also deliberations for a trilateral military cooperation, which was being weighed keeping the Chinese activities in the zone. This step taken by India was important, as the U.S. had been pushing India to undertake a greater role in the region, especially in the maritime zone, which covers the stretch from Africa to the west coast of the U.S. The Indian Navy’s participation in a group sail in the South China Sea with the U.S., Japan and the Philippines was a way to reinforce their partnership in the domain of navigation throughout the international waterway.

Though, there is just one prominent problem with JAI, it is the wording as on one hand, it is being seen from an economic, strategic and military perspective, using it as a counter to China’s BRI. So, it is justified as a strategy, but then the question remains, why is it being called a vision when it is an outright strategy? Thereby, a clarification is needed here. In all possibility, the word ‘Vision’ could be the suggestion of Japan, like it calls its Free and open Indo-Pacific a ‘Vision’, and not ‘Strategy’, as it refuses to directly confront China. This position of Japan is justified, as China is its immediate neighbour, and Japan being a peaceful country, would like to stay clear of any confrontation. But the changing complex dynamics in the present scenario would have to make Japan rethink its balancing and non-confrontational act and rethink its competition vs cooperation strategy with China.

JAI is the new face of strategic and economic framework, which would challenge the supremacy of Chinese maritime aggression, and with the Blue Dot Network in place, China’s Belt and road initiative and string of pearls strategy would finally get a much required rejoinder. Also, the leadership of JAI is interested in a military tie-up, which in turn, clearly shows that JAI under the leadership of the U.S. is sure to stride ahead and tackle Chinese aggressiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Thereby, JAI could be the leader for the water wars in the Indo-Pacific against China, creating a new power vanguard of strategy, economy, and military, in the broader spectrum of the international waterway complex scenario.

JAI’s commitment to JAI

Japan, America and India have complimenting foreign policies with deep values of democracy and follow the rules-based order. For the U.S., Japan is its alliance partner and India is a strategic partner. America’s strapping commitment to the Indo-Pacific paves the way for a new narrative of a new multipolar world order functioning, as equal partners. The world at present is going inwards and there are a host of nationalistic feelings, which aim to protect one’s nation first. This is prevalent through Trump Administrations ‘America First policy’, and America is looking for self-reliant partners like Japan and India , which is why Japan is pushed to look after its security, despite being in the bandwidth of a Security alliance with the U.S, and simultaneously accepts Japan’s Free and Open policy, aimed at the free sea lines and routes of communication open and accessible to one and all. Tokyo’s Flagship initiative of Expanded Partnership for Quality Infrastructure (EPQI) aiming for strategic cooperation and coordination with New Delhi, its all-weather friend, and with America, to together deal with the challenges that they face from China’s BRI.

All these three countries are united, as their national interest in the Indo-Pacific is at stake due to Chinese assertiveness, and JAI forms a framework which would help the strategic undertones through connectivity projects, infrastructure, and investment, thus ultimately helping the multilateral cooperation among these nations and paving a way for a plurilateral framework of JAI.

Japan’s commitment to JAI

Japan’s commitment to JAI can be seen in full force through Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). They aim for “Diplomacy that takes a panoramic perspective of the world map” and further work upon the “Proactive Contribution to Peace based on the principle of international cooperation”. Their target is to “improve connectivity between Asia and Africa through free and open Indo-Pacific, and, with ASEAN as the hinge of two oceans, promote stability and prosperity of the region as a whole Japan will provide nation-building support in the area of development as well as politics and governance, in a way that respects the ownership of African countries, and not by forcing on or intervening in them”. Thereby, the Abe Administration intends to further improve and expand these diplomatic concepts which inevitably help JAI in a big way.

Japan’s FOIP has certain specifications, such as promoting and establishing the rule of law along with aiming for the freedom of navigation and for a broader market economy by cooperating with Japan, the U.S., India, Australia, ASEAN, European and Middle Eastern countries.  Japan also aims to pursue economic prosperity, by improving connectivity through infrastructural development of ports and railways in ASEAN, like the East-West Economic Corridor, South Economic Corridor, South west Asia like the North East Connectivity Improvement Project in India, and the Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Zone and South East Asia to South East Africa through South West Asia and the Middle East like the Mombasa Port. They also worked upon the need to strengthen economic partnership like investment treaties and improving business environment. They also wanted to secure peace and stability, which they were able to do by capacity-building assistance to coastal countries in the realm of Indo-Pacific, which would help strengthen the maritime law enforcement capacity, the maritime domain awareness capacity, human resource development, anti-piracy, counter-terrorism and non-proliferation.

Secondly, JAI offers a grand platform for the further blossoming of the India-Japan ties. Japan has been investing big money in India through projects and investments, and Japan through these projects is making its footprint felt across the country and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) is the foot soldier for Japan’s infrastructural development and connectivity projects in India. India continues to be the most preferred destination as a manufacturing hub for Japan and Japan has been investing a great deal in the sectors of manufacturing and S&T. Japan’s Overseas Development Assistant (ODA) is highest in India, and the most recent loan agreement between JICA and the Government of India is to provide a Japanese ODA loan of 374.44 billion yen, which was signed for nine projects on March 27, 2020, and this amount aimed for supporting well-balanced economic growth through the establishment of urban infrastructure and rural development along with the participation from the community. JAI is also aiming for quality infrastructure development and Japan’s JICA too is doing the same inevitably and indirectly working towards the basic goal of JAI.

India and Japan’s cooperation also a gain for JAI as their 2025 Vision Plan helps for greater regional cooperation. On December 2015, when the “Japan and India Vision 2025 Special Strategic and Global Partnership: Working Together for Peace and Prosperity of the Indo-Pacific Region and the World” was signed by the two Prime Ministers and then they spoke about “the need for closer coordination and effective communication, bilaterally and with partners, to address existing and emerging challenges in spheres of security, stability and sustainable development and also underlined their determination to expand cooperation with other partners, to enhance connectivity in the Indo-Pacific region”. This is a clear give away that India and Japan have had constant issues with China by addressing it as “existing and emerging challenges in the spheres of security and stability” and so, they have worked in leaps and bounds to strengthen their strategic and economic relations and together they work towards a multipolar world in the Indo-Pacific; keeping the bigger picture of a multipolar Asia and dealing with the Chinese balance of power.  Also, they mentioned “the expansion of cooperation with other partners to enhance connectivity in the Indo-Pacific region” was also an inclination to partners like the U.S., Australia etc. They also mentioned about “strengthening the East Asia Summit to enhance dialogue on political as well as security issues with partners like ASEAN dealing with regional peace and security agenda”. By mentioning “ASEAN and other partners”, it was clear that there was a direct link to Japan’s FOIP infrastructural projects and connectivity projects ultimately benefitting the core concepts of JAI. Also, when the two Prime Ministers spoke about “the developments in the South China Sea called upon to avoid unilateral actions that could lead to tensions in the region”, this was yet again an indicator towards China. Therefore, Japan’s commitment to JAI is clear directly through the above mentioned partnerships and their FOIP are in sync with the objectives of JAI.

US commitment to JAI

US’s commitment to JAI can be traced down to 2017, when President Trump had announced the vision for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific at the APEC Summit in Viet Nam and aimed to work on the principles of respect for sovereignty and independence to all nations, peaceful resolution of disputes with a free and fair reciprocal trade based open investment, transparent agreements and connectivity and finally, adhering to the international rules and norms like freedom of navigation and overflight. It also aimed at the regions need for greater investment consisting of infrastructure investment. America wants to reinvigorate its development and finance institutions to become better, to become responsive partners and this was only possible with the U.S. Departments and Agencies working in unison with the regional allies and partners, where they would provide end-to-end solutions for tangible products and transfer experience. The fact that the U.S has a FOIP itself shows its seriousness in the Indo-Pacific region and that is also one of the major converging factors for being an active member of JAI.

On June 1^st 2018, the then-Secretary of Defence James N. Mattis in his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue commented “the U.S. offers strategic partnerships, not strategic dependence”. Alongside our allies and partners, America remains committed to maintaining the region’s security, its stability, and its economic prosperity”. It is important to understand that the U.S. is looking for equal partners in the realm of the strategic domain and not strategic dependence, which not only helps make other nations equal partners, but also helps America pursue its America first policy. This is a different stance that the U.S. is taking, as earlier, the U.S. was a provider for all, and behaved like the big brother, but with this statement it was clear that the U.S. is looking for partnership with equal cooperation from the other side. This should also be seen positively, as American dominance isn’t primary, but it should be seen that America would like to be a friend and not a dominant world controller. US FOIP has aimed for ‘shared responsibility, as a regional order alone wouldn’t survive’, so they have also asked for commitments from their allies and partners to ‘contribute their fair share’ especially investing to modernize their defence capabilities. It is important to understand that America has asked its allies and partners for shared responsibilities, and contributed towards sharing in a fair way, especially in the modernization of defence capabilities, so yet again it is absolutely clear that America is a changed friend and country looking for partners which is extremely essential for the collaboration of JAI.

Also, in the 2018 Indo-Pacific Business Forum, America launched new initiatives to expand the U.S. public and private investment in the Indo-Pacific infrastructure, and worked on the establishment of a new development of finance partnerships with Japan, Australia, Canada and the European Union, thus further supporting the new resources and authorities in the Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development Act or the BUILD Act which was signed by President Trump on 5^th October 2018. BUILD prioritises low-income and lower middle-income countries where the U.S. can provide transparent investment alternatives. Vice President Michael Pence announced the Indo-Pacific Transparency Initiative to help the countries attract high-quality investment, counter corruption and coercive threats to their sovereignty, and also strengthen civil society and good governance. On 31^st December 2018, President Trump signed the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act as a legislation where the whole government policy framework helps demonstrates the U.S. commitment for a free and open Indo-Pacific region, and further aims to promote sovereignty, rule of law, democracy, economic engagement, and regional security.  

A Trilateral Strategic Dialogue amongst the U.S., Japan and Australia worked on sustainable infrastructure, maritime security and counter-terrorism. Leaders from America, Tokyo and New Delhi have also met in November 2018 and June 2019, and they aimed for shared fundamental values like freedom, democracy, rule of law and security and economic issues. The U.S. and Japan have been working to improve energy and infrastructure like the Japan-U.S. Strategic Energy Partnership (JUSEP) and Japan-U.S. Strategic Digital Economy Partnership (JUSDEP) from the region of Indo-Pacific to the east coast of Africa. The U.S. has also developed an energy program in the Mekong region in support of Asia EDGE (Enhancing Development and Growth through Energy), and pledged 29 million dollars. Furthermore, the U.S. investment along with the Japanese government’s target of 10 billion dollar in public and private investment and capacity building. The above-mentioned initiatives clearly show the interest of the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific and these projects are greater reasons for the success of JAI as the U.S. wants equal partners which are also an essential feature of JAI.

Patrick M. Shanahan, acting Secretary of Defence on 1^st June 2019 called “the Indo-Pacific as the Department of Defence’s priority theater” and with this statement meant that America means serious business in the Indo-Pacific region. The Trade war between the U.S. and China heightened to such an extent that the National Security Strategy of 2017 and the Defence White Paper clearly spoke about their anti-China sentiment, and by May 2018, the U.S.–Pacific Command was renamed as the Indo-Pacific Command. The Department of Defence-Indo-Pacific Strategy Report: Preparedness, Partnerships and Promoting a Network Region dated June 1^st 2019 clearly mentioned â€œthe People’s Republic of China, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, seeks to reorder the region to its advantage by leveraging military modernization, influence operations, and predatory economics to coerce other nations” and this was the most direct attack on China with respect to the Indo-Pacific, and from there onwards, there have been several open rivalry comments and quotes from the American side. The same report also mentioned that they will promote peace and prosperity for long-term and will not accept any policies or actions which threaten or undermine the rule-based order. They also spoke about preparedness where they said they would strengthen and employ effective deterrence for a Joint Force to win in a state of conflict, and also worked towards a unique network of allies and partners to promote a networked region cultivating intra-Asia security relationships which are capable of deterring aggression, maintaining stability, and ensuring free access to common domains. The U.S. military presence is based on shared security in the Indo-Pacific building on close partnerships and alliances promoting interoperability and coordination.

On 14^th March, 2019, Patrick M. Shanahan, in the testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee quoted that “the Indo-Pacific, our priority theater, we continue to pursue many belts and many roads by keeping our decades-old alliances strong and fostering partnerships” and this many belts and many roads was a direct hit at China’s Belt and Road Initiative, leaving China’s BRI with a sartorial reply. The most recent hit at China was on 14 February 2020 by ADM Phil Davidson of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in his speech at Lowy Institute where he spoke about the commitment of the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific and mentioned about the strategic competition in this region, especially a ‘competition between a Beijing-centric order and a free and open Indo-Pacific’. Therefore, JAI was primary built to also deal with Chinese aggression. With America’s complete involvement in countering Beijing, JAI is bound to succeed.

India’s commitment to JAI

India’s commitment to JAI is immense as India was the founder of JAI, but there are other efforts made by India to support JAI. India’s vision for the Indo-Pacific adopted on 1^st June 2018 at the Shangri La Dialogue and it stood for a ‘free, open, inclusive region including common pursuit for progress and prosperity’. Southeast Asia is at the centre of India’s IPR, and ASEAN will be the future with common security and prosperity keeping a dialogue of common rules-based order in the region, which would equally apply to individuals as well as global commons respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity and follow the rule of law with its foundation in multilateralism and regionalism. India believes that everyone must have equal access to use common spaces on sea and the air along with requiring freedom of navigation, unimpeded commerce and peaceful settlement of disputes, preventing maritime crimes, preserve marine ecology, protect against disasters and prosper from blue economy. India also stands for open and stable international trade regime with a rules-based, open, balanced and stable trade environment in the region of Indo-Pacific. Connectivity is crucial through infrastructure and countries like Japan have been extensively building in South Asia, Southeast Asia, in the Indian Ocean, Africa and West Asia along with important stakeholders like the New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. 

India and Japan in November 2016 in the Joint Declaration issued by Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Abe spoke about the idea of the Asia Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC), and it works on four pillars of Development and Cooperation Projects, Quality Infrastructure and Institutional Connectivity, Enhancing Capacities and Skills and People-to-People partnership. These have been undertaken to improve the growth and interconnectedness between and within Asia and Africa for realizing a free and open Indo-Pacific region. AAGC is a major boost to not only India and Japan ties but also towards JAI.

Also, India’s relations with the U.S. have grown in leaps and bounds, especially in the inaugural 2+2 Dialogue in 2018 which significantly enhanced the defence as well as the economic cooperation. India purchased more than 16 billion dollars in the U.S. defence platforms and also signed the bilateral Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement to facilitate cooperation in the defence field in 2018. It also held the first ever triservice bilateral exercise Tiger Triumph in November 2019. It is important to understand that the relations between India, Japan and the U.S. is like having the best of friends and can be compared to the cartoon characters of Power Puff Girls who are incomplete without each other, and the same goes for JAI. Thus, JAI as an international framework is bound to be successful.

 JAI, an alternative to Quad 2.0

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD) also known as QUAD was originally proposed by Japan as an informal strategic dialogue between countries like the U.S., Japan, Australia and India, and was initiated by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2007. This dialogue was paralleled by joint military exercises Malabar and the overall pursued, to respond to the increased Chinese economic as well as military power threats, and QUAD did face protests from the Chinese Government. The first iteration of QUAD ceased as Australia withdrew in 2007, as during the tenure of Prime Minister John Howard reflected their concern over the perceived alliance against China, and later Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and his successor Julia Gillard worked towards military cooperation between the U.S and Australia, and parallel to that, the Malabar Exercise held joint naval exercises with countries like the U.S, Japan, and India. In the 2017 ASEAN Summit, all these four member countries re-joined the negotiations to revive and restore the quadrilateral alliance, and together the leaders agreed in Manila to revive the security pact among the tensions in the South China Sea caused by Chinese expansionist policy.  Also, when Australia dropped out, India questioned Australia’s reasons for dropping out and not also being a part of the Malabar exercise due to Chinese pressure. Australia in the recent Virtual Summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia on 4th June 2020 was good as they discussed the free and open Indo-Pacific, and Australia supported the global initiatives of India like ISA, CDRI and Indo-Pacific Oceans’ Initiative (IPOI). Australia will have to do more to win the trust of India and will have to learn to take a stance on China, as China refuses to stop its maritime aggression, and Australia being a maritime nation would have to rethink its strategy on China and look to preserve its own national interest in future.

The new Quad 2.0 is a result of closer partnerships and alignments with the U.S, especially countries like Viet Nam and New Zealand are in a rather questionable position, as they have traditionally been Anti-U.S. nations due to their war history, and their constitution has always disliked America. But there is a rise in the new generation of Viet Nam where they have decided to counter China, and it is visible in the present scenario as Viet Nam has been planning to deploy Maritime militaries to tackle Chinese maritime aggressiveness and also raised its voice against ramming and sinking the Vietnamese fisher boat. It has also raised protests in Hanoi against China, which was supported by the U.S. and the Philippines. Also, the recent 2019 Viet Nam Defence White clearly mentions about the Chinese aggression without actually naming it. Viet Nam is also the ASEAN chair this year, and ASEAN has also adopted the Indo-Pacific Objective (AOP) which is essentially central and united. But as Viet Nam has gone most guns out on China, with recent activities showing its readiness to tackle with China and also, the changing dynamics of the U.S-Viet Nam relations is at an all high, which is also the guiding light for the rise of Viet Nam in the Indo-Pacific as a bankable partner. Viet Nam has also been improving its relations with U.S allies and partners like Japan and India. If Viet Nam wants to be a partner in JAI, it will have to take more steps and would have to rethink its old strategies on China, especially keeping the Chinese aggression in mind, as it affects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Viet Nam. The truth is that Viet Nam is one of the most powerful ASEAN nations as it has a long standing army and navy, which, if collaborated with JAI would be able to change the game plan for itself as well as for the other JAI members.

New Zealand is a country which doesn’t have any resources nor does it have any strategic planning and if it would like to pursue its role as a QUAD member, then New Zealand will also have to come up with their Indo-Pacific strategy followed by becoming militarily transparent, and becoming a member in Malabar exercises. That should be the future course of action for New Zealand, if it would like to counter China and if they feel China is a maritime threat to them, which is bound to happen soon as Chinese maritime expansionism is at an all high.

Also, the purpose of QUAD isn’t clear as it is posed as an ‘Asian NATO’ and Japan has emphasised that the QUAD doesn’t mean to engage in any military activities. India and Australia don’t take steps and are hesitant to move in confrontational directions against Chinese economic markets and gains, and the QUAD’s focus also remains underdeveloped in the sectors of infrastructure. QUAD aims for ‘no military counterbalance to China’ or ‘diplomatic hedging in the international liberal order’ which in itself is coming to a misbalance. Also, India’s view of the Indo-Pacific is rooted in the Asia Plus continental connect holding vital maritime factors in Asia and Africa, and Indian perspective also ranges from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean up to the African Coast and the U.S. perspective backed by Quad 2.0 has the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean focused on the Indo-Pacific. So, the Asia Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) having Japan and India on its side by the U.S, doesn’t prescribe this perspective.

It is therefore, right to call QUAD a not so successful platform of mutual cooperation, as there are too many differences and not much common grounds of functionality. JAI on the contrary can be a feasible alternative to QUAD 2.0 as it is not only a new face of strategic and economic framework, but with special emphasis on quality infrastructure along with efforts and collaboration of the U.S. led on the Blue Dot Network along with military tie-ups with its focus on the Indo-Pacific to deal with Chinese aggressiveness in the world facing the broader spectrum of the international waterway complex scenario. Therefore, JAI is the feasible alternative to QUAD 2.0.

Pic Courtesy-Twitter handle@narendra modi

(The views expressed are personal)