Iraqi Politics and Elections: An Update
In the wake of Iraq’s fifth parliamentary elections which are scheduled for the coming week on October 10th, the political dynamics of the country have come a long way since the U.S. invasion of 2003. Since the toppling of Saddam Hussein and his regime, Iraq has been constantly marred with conflict, violence, and war. In the aftermath of the invasion, a sectarian conflict within Iraq’s Shia, Sunni and Kurdish groups emerged at the forefront. Al-Qaeda attacks rose prominently with frequent suicide bombings, public beheadings, and hangings. Fallujah, the ground of the insurgents, faced a fierce battle in the run-up to the first US-led democratic elections in 2005. Iraq passed a constitution the same year, which guarantees full religious and political rights to minority communities like Christians, Yazidis and Mandean Sabeans, upholds the principles of democracy and designates 25% of total seats to be occupied by women. Iraq is also one of the few countries that recognise the Kurdish culture, giving them a degree of autonomy in the northern parts of the country.
Since 2005 Iraq has seen three parliamentary elections in 2010, 2014 and 2018 amid a sectarian conflict, Arab spring protests and the rise and fall of the terrorist group Islamic State. Despite widespread destruction and violence across different parts of the country, the Iraqi people have repeatedly demonstrated their zeal towards the democratic system by demanding free and fair elections. The agenda has revolved around corruption, unemployment, the lack of social services, and a falling standard of living. The last election held in 2018 set in motion a series of political and electoral reforms in the broken country, with the masses steering the country in the right direction.
Beginning in 2019, prior to the pandemic, protestors took to the streets to demand the ouster of the ruling elite, which primarily comprise the members of the demographic minority Shi’ite community. The primary demands of the public were a fundamental change in the status of unemployment, quality of basic services and level of state corruption. The protestors forced the former Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi to resign and usher in critical electoral reforms. The new electoral law passed in December 2019 decentralised the political system by dividing Iraq into 83 districts and ease the entry of independents and small or new parties [1]. However, the reforms came at a cost. The Iraqi demonstrations since the last two years have been one of the most violent social uprisings in the world where security forces have killed and injured thousands of protestors. Sectarian armed groups and Iran-backed militias like the Kataib Hezbollah and the Asaib Ahl al-Haq are accused of carrying out more than half of the extrajudicial killings as protestors have remained committed to using non-violent and peaceful methods. The Iraqi High Commission for Human Rights (IHCHR) estimates that 600 demonstrators have been killed and 35 activists have died in multiple targeted killings since October 2019 people first took to the streets [2].
Forthcoming 2021 Elections
Due to the continued targeted killings of the activists and journalists involved in the anti-government protests, many groups called for a boycott of the October parliamentary elections. In July 2020, the point-blank shooting of prominent academic and government adviser Hisham al-Hashemi angered the public who demanded accountability and justice for the political murders. In December 2020, Salah al-Iraqi, a renowned activist leader known for his role in anti-government protests was shot dead in Baghdad [3]. In July 2021, just months before the elections, 26-year-old Ali Karim, the son of Basra activist Fatima al-Bahadly was found shot dead by unknown assailants. The repeated chants against “political parties and traitors” display a sense of disillusionment among the citizens towards the political system and transformation. However, the activists fear that a low voter turnout will act as a catalyst for the established parties to carry out voter fraud to dominate elections.
Despite a widespread call to boycott the upcoming elections, few elements are set to dominate the process and outcome of the Iraqi elections. First, several scholars and middle-eastern experts believe that the election will be dominated by the Shi’ite groups while the Sunnis and the Kurds retain their clan-based and tribal votes. The Shi’ite groups include the dominating Sadrist movement, the followers of founding father Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr, who was killed by Saddam's regime. The group emerged as the largest one, winning 54 out of the total 329 seats in the 2018 elections. The rival Shi’ite group is led by the Fateh alliance, which is overtly close to Iran and includes Iran-backed militia and armed groups. The political wing is led by Asaib Ahl al-Haq, a United States designated terrorist organization and also represents the Badr Organization, which has long ties with Tehran and fought alongside Iran in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war [4]. Among other Shi’ite tribe-backed political groups, one is led by former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, a controversial leader of the Dawa party and heads the State of Law coalition which won 25 seats in 2018. Maliki is widely blamed for fuelling corruption and anti-Sunni sectarianism that helped Islamic State gain followers, Reuters reported.
Second, the role of Iran and Iran-backed ‘proxy’ groups has emerged as one of the important players in the power dynamics of neighbouring Iraq. The protestors also demand a counter to the Iranian intervention and influence tactics, which they view as one of the major reasons for continuing violence and conflict in their country. “The clash between [Sunnis and Shi’ites] could facilitate further Iranian expansion into the country and allow Tehran to insert its Shia militias into the fabric of Iraq’s security establishment and consequently have control over almost 14% of the world's oil imports,” writes Haitham Numan, who is a professor of public relations at the Gulf University in Bahrain [5].
Third, the emergence of Iraqi nationalism, especially since the 2019 protests is another decisive factor that is likely to affect the outcome of the elections. A part of the nationalistic chord is struck by anti-US sentiment in the country, abused by Iran-backed militias to target U.S. embassy and diplomatic missions, killing civilians and fueling a state of chaos.
Iraq’s Outreach to the Arab World
Despite a global pandemic crisis and its worsening impact on the Iraqi economy and security situation, this year has been indicative of positive changes by the political establishment. The year began for the Iraqis with a historic visit of Pope Francis who became the first Pope to visit the country. Describing himself as a “pilgrim of peace”, he called on Iraqis to ensure they had "one prayer, one mind, one hope to achieve unity and peace" [6]. The Pope stopped by several towns once held by IS such as Mosul and Erbil in addition to Our Lady of Salvation Church in Baghdad, which was the scene of a violent attack by Al Qaeda in 2010 that killed at least 58 people during a Sunday Mass.
Later that month, the Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi visited Saudi Arabia, meeting King Salman Bin Abdul Aziz, in hopes to reach out to the Arab world. The Saudi Kingdom pledged worth $3 billion investments into the Iraqi economy, a much-needed boost for the war-ravaged pandemic-hit country. The Riyadh meeting was followed by Abu Dhabi, where Al-Kadhimi reinforced his country’s efforts to restore stability, rebuild its economy and infrastructure and eventually regain its rightful place in the Arab fold [7]. “Iraq needs all its brothers in the Arab world and is keen to return to the Arab fold,” Al Kadhimi said during his meeting with Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
In June, Iraq hosted Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the first visit of an Egyptian head of state since 1990. Iraq, Egypt and Jordan held a significant meeting on a range of issues like security, combating terrorism, energy and economic cooperation [8]. The West views this development in a positive light where Iraq’s engagement with the Arab world is seen as a move to counter Iran’s influence.
Apart from the elections, the year 2021 is crucial for another reason for the Arab country. In the last week of July, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that the U.S will end its combat mission in Iraq by the end of 2021. President Biden and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi signed an agreement to formally mark the shift in the role of the U.S. troops from combat to training and advising the Iraqi forces. This development comes in the wake of the much-criticized U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which fell back into the hands of the Taliban. With the continuing protests, a vulnerable economy and a fragile political order, the consequences of the withdrawal will set in motion the discourse of Iraq’s future.
Notes
[1] https://www.arab-reform.net/publication/iraq-elections/
[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/25/one-killed-as-iraqs-anti-government-protests-resume
[3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/18/iraqis-protest-against-unpunished-killings-of-activists
[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/whos-competing-iraqs-elections-2021-09-28/
[5] https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/85470
[6] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56309779
[7] https://gulfnews.com/opinion/editorials/the-uae-firm-support-crucial-to-iraqs-recovery-efforts-1.78346586
[8] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-diplomacy-jordan-egypt-idAFKCN2E305R
Pic Courtesy- Saad Salim at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)
