India Russia defence weapons trade has usually been referred as that of supplier and consumer. The last four decades of the arms trade has seen Russia weapons comprising more than 70 per cent of India’s weapons inventory. The adaptation to the Soviet/Russian weapon systems have made the armed forces personnel very equipped in operating and maintaining these weapon systems. However, the Russian weapon systems have lost out because of the slow progression in technology and escalating costs of production. India has used nearly all series of Russian aircrafts starting from MiG-21(later few upgraded a MiG -21 Bison), MiG-25, MiG 27 and MiG 29K. Many squadrons of MiG -25 and MiG 21 have been decommissioned and vintage aircrafts such as Mig-27 have flown for the last time recently. The Russia-India supplier and consumer relationship has under gone change with the licensed production of Sukhoi-30MKI aircrafts and also different kinds of frigates (Talwar class and Brahmaputra class) and destroyers (five Rajput class which are in service) that India has been using. The latest induction has been that of aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya (earlier known as Admiral Gorchakov) and the four Krivak-III class frigates that Indian navy is buying from Russia will be equipped with naval versions of Brahmos. The agreement was signed in 2018 under 2+2 agreement which means two would be produced in Russia while the other two will be manufactured in India from scratch. This was a departure from ealier agreement where all fabrication and other production was done in Russia. This embeds technology transfer to build India’s technology prowess in building sophisticated ships. The joint venture of Brahmos missile initiative provided the possibility of the joint production and development of the new supersonic missile systems.
Brahmos was one special project which opened new possibilities of cooperation between the two countries. Brahmos which has been inspired by the Yakhont series of Russian missiles and have three versions I, II and III with different utility in challenging conditions. Now India and Russia have embarked on the development of the Brahmos hypersonic version which would be nearly 7 times the speed of sound and making it one of the most lethal weapon systems with radar evading and skimming weapon system. India meanwhile has also tried to diversify its weapon portfolio by purchasing critical equipment from other suppliers such as France, Israel and US. The increasing defence purchases from the US, in particular the amphibious ship INS Jalashava in 2007 and the P8-I Poseidon aircrafts and also Apache attack helicopters. The total weapons purchase that India has done with US has been over 10 billion USD (2010-2019) and this to a certain extent has perturbed the Russian weapons companies. The order for the 126 Multi Role Combat aircraft (MMRCA) was perceived to the mother of all arms purchase and the Russian SU-35 and the US companies Boeing and Raytheon has also pitted F-16 and F-18 for the tender. However, despite many media predictions, Rafale came out winner. The reasons were that France has been always a stable supplier – be it the case of Mirage 2000 or the upgrade of those aircrafts as Mirage 2000-5F aircraft as well as supply of six Scorpene submarines. Further, given the fact that India wanted to diversify its weapons portfolio, France came out as a winner because of the better load carrying capacity of Rafale as well as the aircraft not in the inventory of either Pakistan or China. The SU-35 was also under consideration but there were problems because China has been operating these aircrafts and there would not have a tactical edge for India if it would have purchased those aircrafts.
While the cooperation with Russia has been satisfactory but at time Indian armed forces have suffered because 0f escalating costs of Russian spares and the problems with quality control. At times many of the Russian aircrafts and weapon systems could not remain operational for long periods because of non-availability of spares. India went scouting for spares of MIG-21 aircrafts and at times cannibalized aircrafts to keep the squadrons operational, and also disintegrated many other ship to get spares when Soviet Union disintegrated. Further, the steep escalation of the costs of INS Vikramaditya and teething problems with the operational efficacy of MIG-29K for operating on that aircraft carrier has been talked in hushed tones. INS Vikramaditya has filled the critical gap in Indian naval capability but better planning was required in case of calculating depreciation and the possible phase out of older ships and aircraft carriers. Viraat, the last aircraft carrier that India was using before decommissioning, was running exorbitant operational costs and the maintenance was always an issue. The US weapon systems also have faced problems like the gas leak incident (poisonous hydrogen sulphide (H2S) in INS Jalashava but in terms of delivery timelines and technical aspects it has fared better. However, India always had concerns with the strict end user agreement with US particularly the clause in INS Jalashava agreement which stated that US can conduct regular check so that the ship is not used for offensive operations. The new agreements that US has signed with India, in particular COMCASA has put certain regulations with regard to Indian navy adopting US communication systems has been disliked by the navy personnel who find the clauses infringing on the secrecy and operational aspects of the navy. Russian systems have served Indian armed forces but with new weapon systems on the horizon such as drones, artificial intelligence and robotics and better situational awareness gadgets have forced Indiana army to adapt to the new warfare.
The terms of engagement with Russia have also changed accordingly. Now Russia wants to manufacture 200 Kamov helicopters in India (60 in Russia and rest in India) as well as automatic weapons such as 7.5 lakh AK-203 in India to keep the Indian market. Further, there have been talks of developing better advanced weapons systems as now India wants to fund research and development of new weapon systems while putting a clause that the weapons should be developed and manufactured in India under the Make in India initiative. With stress on the development of technical expertise and instead of undertaking licensed production, India wants to bridge the gap between scientific knowledge and adaptation which is rampant in Indian defence industrial complex. The Ordnance factory board which was much dependent on developing Russian arms systems and also short range missiles is looking for 3D fabrication and also building modern factories where R&D as well as testing can be done simultaneously. AK-203 would be produced in one of the new facility in Korwa in Uttar Pradesh.
The laggard approach in developing Indian’s research and development can be attributed to long periods of sanctions and also many arms suppliers not willing to share the technical expertise. However, this has been addressed through two major initiatives. Firstly, the offset clause in defence purchase which makes it mandatory for the arms exporting country to source few of the critical components from India and secondly, the induction of private sector in arms purchase mechanisms. Lastly and one important aspect is the fact that joint collaboration has been promoted through increased FDI in defence sector. Now FDI in defence sector is about 76 per cent making India as a lucrative market. India is also at the cusp of major weapon overhaul because most of the weapon systems which are of 1970s, and 1080s vintage are likely to be decommissioned in next five years. The total arms import that India would be doing would be in the range of 40-50 billion dollars in the next 5-6 years. The volume and the price would be major factor in determining India as the major player in the arms market. Of late, countries like China have been providing cheap military weapons and submarines to India’s neighbour, with Pakistan at the top and countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar joining the group. For India therefore it is critical that it must develop its defence industry in such a way that it can be also a supplier for the countries which need weapon systems which can address security requirements of few countries in Asia. Of late the development of Dhruv lightweight helicopters and Tejas light combat aircrafts has seen expression of interest from countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and other countries. The utility of Tejas light combat aircraft is that it can be a short range light combat aircraft with an operational radius of 400-500 kms serving the requirements of smaller countries.
The story of Brahmos has been one of the successful stories between India and Russia and being one the lethal systems with the operational range of 290 kilometers have seen the standing market of the missile system. Brahmos has seen purchase requests from many countries across Asia and even in Latin America. Brahmos has been in the shopping list of countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia. However, the Brahmos story has its share of irritants. Russia did not want to share the development blueprints of the developmental phases of the hypersonic Brahmos making it a concern for India. India has committed to 50 per cent financing of the R & D for the next version of Brahmos but given the fact that Russia has been cautious of the fact that China has reverse engineered its Sukhoi series of aircrafts, it wants to keep the technical blueprints to itself. China has reversed engineered the Sukhoi -27 and Sukhoi -31 to develop its own versions which are known as J-11A and J-16, and JF-17 aircrafts (with collaboration of Pakistan which is an amalgamation of MIG-21 and F-16 technologies). The challenge for Russia is to keep its prices low so as to challenge the low costs weapons market incrementally captured by China.
While one can easily conclude that the cooperation between Russia and India has been very encouraging but now India wants to bridge the gaps in its technical knowledge and scientific research but the problem is the fact that Russia has been losing its weapons markets to western countries and would like to keep the R&D secrets to itself. India has been willing to develop its indigenous defence industry so as to keep its armed forces in maximum operational readiness and also reduce its dependence on foreign supplies. This was witnessed during the US sanctions regime in the post nuclear tests phase of 1998 and also during the disintegration of Soviet Union. Even during the Kargil war with Pakistan, the then army chief V P Malik raised concerns with regard to operational readiness and because of which several government committees were instituted to addresses operational preparedness and efficiency. The newly constituted Defence Planning Committee (created in April 2018) under NSA Ajit Doval is meant to prepare a capability plan and work out the phased process of induction. The institution of the Chief of Defence Staff is also going to address these issues along with developing joint warfare aspects between the three armed forces- Army, Navy and Air force.
Russia will remain major supplier for Indian weapons but India would like that instead of buyer supplier relationship, the relationships should be more in terms of research, joint development and manufacturing. The competition between various arms exporters have made things easy for India and major arms exporters are willing to set up shop and manufacturing unit in India. For India and the Modi government the critical issues is to bridge the gap between the knowledge, research and adaptation for manufacturing. It is a long process but the new template of relationship between Russia and India is meant to address it.
(Dr. Pankaj K Jha is Executive Director of the Centre for Security and Strategy Studies)