Fallout of Iran nuclear deal and the way forward
Iran’s uranium intensification is undoubtedly linked to the covenant with the nuclear group. Not long ago, Tehran decided to enlarge atomic advancement after the Trump administration unilaterally decided to scrap the treaty and re-imposed sanctions in 2018 which were waived as part of the 2015 Iran nuclear club understanding. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed on 17 November 2020 that Iran had reached higher levels of uranium endowment and was in direct violation of the 2015 accord.
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action:
The accord is popularly known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which was signed by Iran, US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany on 14 July 2015. The agreement authorised that the economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic would be lifted and in exchange Iran would limit its plans to develop nukes, the time-period would be 25 years. The accord was endorsed by the United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 which was adopted on 20 July 2015. The pact is professed to be a win-win situation for both the sides as the nuclear club was able to ensure that Tehran does not acquire the doomsday machine, while Iran would be able to amplify its economic prowess by integrating into the world economy through lifting of crippling economic sanctions.
On 16 January 2016, the protocol was implemented after IAEA certified that the Islamic Republic had made the required reductions to its neutron bomb project such as eliminating 98 % of its stockpile, removing the core from the Arak nuclear reactor, blocking the manufacturing of weapons-grade plutonium as well as destroying two-third of the centrifuges. It halted the uranium reinforcement activities conducted at the Fordow underground site. In addition to that, IAEA was permitted to monitor the atomic program and verify if Iran had complied with the pact. Last but not the least, Iran gave the details of H-bomb past which were vital to assess whether the country possessed the technical know-how to build nukes. After the steps taken by Iran were brought into consideration, it was decided that the economic sanctions would be lifted while ensuring that they would be re-imposed in case the terms of the treaty were breached.
Why did the US jettison the 2015 accord?
Donald Trump had promised to eliminate the key accord during his election campaign back in 2016 wherein he said that the pact was a “disaster”, and it was “the worst deal ever negotiated”. In March 2016, he declared that his “number one priority” would be to “dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran” during a speech given to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as part of the political campaign.
The first and foremost reason for pulling back has to do with Trump’s attempt to trample Obama’s legacy, for example his pulling out of the Trans-Partnership, Paris agreement and the Affordable Care Act, agreements in which Obama had played a key role. The second reason could be his pro-Israeli stance for instance, Trump had promised to ditch the settlement during his campaign to win the 2016 election.
His administration had decided to shift the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem after recognising it as the Israeli capital in May 2018. Also, since Donald Trump, President emeritus was the key broker who enabled the United Arab Emirates and Israel to normalise relations last year. So, him being a pro-Israeli President and considering that Israel was against the accord, he abandoned it single-handedly.
How did Other Signatories react?
The accord is seen by the Europeans as the leading way to prevent Iran from acquiring atomic weapons. French President Macron criticised President Trump’s move to rescind as he considered it a “mistake” and France stands to lose as sanctions would hurt its businesses. For instance, Total, an energy giant and car makers-Renault and Peugeot had made investments in the country. Exports of French goods have increased since the sanctions were lifted in 2016. France wants to protect its economic interests and as a result, they want to see the accord being restored.
Germany along with France and the UK said that they were committed to it. It is in their interest to make sure that it is preserved, Foreign Minister Maas called on Iran to fulfil its obligations under the agreement. Germans are rightly concerned as US sanctions would hurt their business interest.
The UK is also riveted in ensuring that Iran fulfils its obligations under the accord, and it is evident by the then foreign minister Boris Johnson’s visit to the US in May 2018 when he met with Vice President Mike Pence and national security advisor John Bolton to help convince the President to not to abandon the indenture.
Russia lambasted the US decision to quit independently and announced that it will do everything it can to preserve the agreement on the one hand and to protect its trade and economic cooperation with the Middle East nation on the other.
Xi Jinping rejected Trump’s call to walk away from the JCPOA, while acknowledging the fact that agreement was a significant multilateral achievement and argued that all parties should adhere to the agreement. In addition, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson blames America for creating tensions in the Middle East by pulling out from the agreement.
Iran’s Counter:
After President Trump had announced that the US would pull out from JCPOA on 8 May 2018 and re-impose the very sanctions Iran had worked so hard to get lifted. President Rouhani announced that Tehran would abide by the terms of the accord provided that the other signatories reciprocate. Supreme Leader Khamenei accentuated his views by excoriating the US for not abiding by its commitments and said that the decision to retract indicates the untrustworthiness of Americans.
On 1 July 2019, the stockpile of enriched uranium was increased beyond the 300 kg limit. On 9 November 2019, Tehran announced that it has enriched uranium up to 4.5 percent in breach of the JCPOA’s limit of 3.67 percent. Iran has accumulated 648 kg of uranium gas from November 2019 to March 2020, 550 kg from March to June, 533 kg from June to September and lastly 338 kg from September to November 2020. This indicates that although Iran is acquiring uranium gas in clear breach of the 2015 accord, the pace has slowed over the past year which shows that Iran is exercising restraint despite sour relations with the US. Moreover, it has continuously allowed IAEA to monitor and verify refinement of the mini nuke. More recently on 5th January 2021, the Islamic Republic declared that it was boosting uranium to 20 percent purity which is a significant break-away from the JCPOA commitments.
The Way Forward:
The European Trio of Germany, France and Britain issued a joint statement on 12th February 2021 calling Iran to halt the process of embellishment started in the light of US withdrawal and live up to its commitments under the JCPOA. The Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif hinted that Iran may stop the execution of additional protocol which allows IAEA for unannounced inspections if the US and the European trio do not live up to their end of the bargain.
President Biden who intends to ameliorate relations with Iran by rectifying the wrongful policies of the previous government has agreed to hold talks with all the parties of the accord. Undertaking diplomatic dialogue is just the first step in the attempt to ensure that all parties comply with the agreement. The onus lies with the new administration in the White House to not only save the multilateral settlement from faltering on the one hand but also to improve US-Iran souring relations.
While both the US and Iran seem to be at loggerheads about who should take the first step to restore the agreement, for instance Iran says that the US should lift sanctions first, while America says Tehran should comply with the terms first. The optimal way to go about the issue is to have dialogue between all the parties so that disagreements can be sorted out and ensure that all members live up to their end of the arrangement.
Endnotes
1) https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366
2)https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/20/11/govinf2020-16.pdf
3)https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/iran/nuclear/
4)https://armscontrolcenter.org/factsheet-implementation-of-iran-nuclear-deal/
5)https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-iran-idUSKBN13427E
6)https://www.vox.com/2018/5/14/17340798/jerusalem-embassy-israel-palestinians-us-trump
7)https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-53770859
8)https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44090948
9)https://www.dw.com/en/donald-trump-withdraws-us-from-iran-nuclear-deal-how-the-world-reacted/a-43708940
10)https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/uk-foreign-secretary-boris-johnson-tells-us-president-donald-trump-not-to-dump-iran-nuclear-deal/1158329/
11)https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/07/russia-slams-us-sanctions-against-iran-promises-to-save-nuclear-deal.html
12)https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/china-rejects-trumps-call-to-break-away-from-iran-deal/articleshow/73172601.cms?from=mdr
13)https://time.com/5270821/iran-nuclear-deal-trump-ayatollah-khameini-hassan-rouhani/
14)https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Iran-scraps-limit-on-uranium-enrichment
15)https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/11/9/iran-says-enriching-uranium-to-five-percent
16)https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2020-11-13/irans-accumulation-enriched-uranium-slows
17)https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/6/iran-nuclear-move-has-significant-risks-france-germany-uk
18)https://en.mehrnews.com/news/169848/European-trio-urge-Iran-to-halt-metal-uranium-enrichment
19)https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-administration-says-it-s-ready-nuclear-talks-iran-n1258299
20)https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-idUSKBN2AH0UQ
Pic Courtesy-Mostafa Meraji at unsplash.com
(The views expressed are personal views of the author and do not represent the views of CESCUBE or its officials.)
