EV Revolution in India- Long term solution to rising crude prices

INDIAN EV MARKET

The Indian auto industry is expected to enter a new phase in 2022 as the country's economy rebounds and business activities continue to grow. However, the rapid emergence and growth of EVs are still facing various challenges. One of these is the lack of infrastructure and high upfront cost. The government is also promoting the use of electric cars in the country, but the lack of high-performing vehicles and the high cost of doing business are hindering its mass adoption. The cost of capital is a major factor that consumers consider when it comes to choosing an electric vehicle. According to a survey, over 60per cent of consumers believe that an EV is beyond their budget. Despite the government's efforts to promote the use of electric cars, the lack of proper charging infrastructure is still a major issue that prevents the country from becoming a leader in the electric vehicle market. This is because it is very difficult to find a charging station that is near your home or work. Besides this, other factors such as the availability of charging slot availability and the management of the grid-connection are also challenging for people.

Due to the current shortage of lithium, which is a key component for the production of electric cars, manufacturers will have a hard time sourcing the necessary materials. This could affect the performance of the batteries. In October 2021, the country experienced a power supply shortage of over a thousand million units, which was the highest in over five years. The issue is attributed to the shortage of coal, which is the country's primary energy source. The continuous lack of power in major cities and rural areas, which can cause major breakdowns at times, is also a major concern for the electric vehicle industry. The summer season is expected to affect the electric vehicle switch on a large scale. Due to the lack of power supply, most people will be using two and three wheelers. The electric vehicle revolution is currently focused on the metros where the consumer has a range anxiety due to the daily travel distance. In tier-II and III cities, the consumer can easily ride 150 to 180 kilometers after recharging.

Even, after the government's efforts to promote the use of electric cars, the lack of proper charging infrastructure is still a major issue that prevents the country from becoming a leader in the electric vehicle market. Other factors such as the lack of a robust manufacturing ecosystem are also expected to affect the market's growth. In response to the concerns about the shortage of lithium, the government launched various measures to encourage the production of electric cars in the country. These included the establishment of a policy framework that will help the industry develop a robust manufacturing ecosystem.

The recent initiatives undertaken by the government, such as the battery swap policy, are expected to create a conducive environment for the growth of the electric vehicle industry. These policies are also expected to encourage the use of green energy sources and improve the distribution of electricity. The use of swap batteries for powering electric cars has sidestepped the issue of having a charging infrastructure. However, the future is still likely to see a mix of both types of vehicles.

India still has a long way to go before it can fully realize the potential of the electric vehicle industry. The country's lack of infrastructure and technology is still a major issue that prevents the production of lithium-Ion Cells and chips. The lack of a comprehensive infrastructure for the second-hand sales of electric cars has been a major issue that prevents the country from becoming a leader in the industry. Aside from poor quality, the lack of proper warranties and the overall condition of the vehicle can also affect the sales. The lack of global semiconductor supply also creates supply chain issues for automotive OEMs. Also major carmakers are still looking to reduce their dependence on imported components for the production of electric cars. They are also expected to meet the 50per cent localisation requirement for the vehicles. The availability of a robust financing ecosystem, technological advancements, and government support are some of the factors that are expected to drive the electric vehicle market's growth in the next decade.

COMING EV BATTERY REVOLUTION

According to a report, by 2040, almost half of all new vehicle sales globally will be electric. This figure will represent a massive shift away from the traditional internal combustion engine and the entire auto manufacturing complex. It's estimated that over 55 million electric cars will be sold annually by 2040. The rapid emergence and evolution of electric cars will create a huge challenge for the traditional automotive industry to secure the necessary raw materials for the new batteries. This week, we'll discuss the various components that will be used in the electric vehicle industry. Tesla's Model S utilizes an aluminum frame instead of a manganese-based one. In order to maximize the amount of nickel, engineers are working on developing a process that will allow them to eliminate the need for cobalt. On the anode side, there are around 54 kg of silicon and 54 kg of graphite.

The main component of the battery's cathode is lithium-ion. There are two different types of this chemical: lithium manganese oxide and lithium cobalt dioxide. A new technology known as lithium iron phosphate has a lower energy density but is safer and more stable than lithium-ion. Some believe that the market for lithium-ion batteries will be divided into two categories: high energy density and low energy density. The former is likely to be used in higher-range electric cars and stationary power batteries. On the other hand, low energy density LFP batteries are commonly used in electric cars and buses in China.

According to Elon Musk, the company is working on a three-tier approach to batteries that will allow them to meet the needs of different applications. For instance, in the future, they will start with nickel manganese for long-range applications, such as the semi and cybertruck. To produce a single 1,000-pound lithium-ion battery, a mining operation involving 500,000 pounds of raw materials is required. As the electric vehicle industry continues to expand, it's estimated that around 6 to 8 times the current amount of lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese will be needed for batteries. Around 75per cent of the world's nickel deposits are located in various countries, such as Australia, Indonesia, Russia, and Canada. As engineers start incorporating more nickel into the batteries, the pressure on this commodity could increase.

The Democratic Republic of Congo is the biggest producer of cobalt, and it has a dubious record when it comes to human rights. As the number of electric cars continues to increase, the need for these compounds and elements will also increase. Currently, the US doesn't have a significant role in the production and sourcing of these materials. And The US is currently producing around 1per cent of the world's lithium-ion chemicals and 7per cent of the raw materials used in the production of lithium-ion batteries. This is because of Tesla's Gigafactory in Nevada. In terms of the electric vehicle industry's key inputs, the US is a significant player. Most of the lithium-ion batteries and raw materials used in the electric vehicle industry are currently manufactured in China. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is aware of this issue and has started planning on a massive expansion of the company's operations in North America. This will require the company to source key inputs from other countries, which is a nearly unthinkable move for a traditional manufacturer.

The electric vehicle industry is currently in the process of developing batteries that can run a vehicle for up to a hundred miles. These are capable of achieving a capacity of around kilowatts per hour. Current electric vehicle batteries can range from 20 to 50 kilowatt-hours. Tesla's Model S and X have 75 kilowatt-hour battery capacities, which could increase to 100 kilowatt-hours in the near future. Amazon's upcoming vehicle, the Rivian EV, will have a capacity of 180 kilowatt-hours. In addition, General Motors' Ultium batteries, which are being developed through a partnership with Korean chemical company LG Chem, could have a capacity of 200 kilowatt-hours. The price of electric vehicle batteries has significantly decreased over the past couple of years. The cost of batteries is expected to continue to fall, and it could reach a level that the Department of Energy (DOE) says is equivalent to a typical ICE vehicle in the next couple of years. In the future, electric vehicle batteries could be made with solid-state batteries, which are capable of producing electricity using a liquid lithium salt electrolyte. These new batteries are expected to greatly reduce the size and weight of electric vehicles while improving their performance. Some of the companies that are developing solid-state batteries include Fisker, Solid Power, and BMW. These new batteries are expected to be able to operate at higher temperatures and prevent fires. Although solid-state batteries are not yet capable of matching the performance of Tesla's lithium-ion batteries, they could provide a step-change in their efficiency and safety.

BREAKTHROUGH IN INDIAN BATTERY TECHNOLOGY

During the 1980s, three professors from the University of Cambridge, John Goodenough, Stanley Whittingham, and Akira Yoshio, were awarded the Nobel Prize for their contributions to the development of lithium-ion batteries. There are two main cell chemistries: LFP and NMC. Both of these chemicals have their own disadvantages and advantages. The main advantage of lithium-ion is its energy density. However, this is not the only tradeoff that manufacturers have to make when it comes to batteries. Aside from this, they also have to consider the safety and long life of the battery. The development of battery technology is also moving away from cobalt due to the increasing cost of doing business and the safety concerns surrounding its mining. Researchers are also working on removing C from the NMC chemistry. This will allow them to improve the energy density and decrease the energy cost. The percentage of cobalt, nickel, and manganese in a cell is shown in the numbers. For instance, with the use of solid-state electrolytes, the safety of batteries has improved significantly. On the other hand, with the use of lithium metal anodes, the energy density of batteries has been improved. While the increasing number of abundant materials has led to the resurgence of the LFP chemistry. This is due to the technological advancements that have occurred in the field of battery technology.

Despite the technological advancements, the safety of LFP chemistry has remained the same as that of NCM chemistry. Due to its long history, there has been a resurgence of this chemistry in recent times. There are also a lot of new developments in the field of metal anodes, which are mainly based on lithium anodes. In addition, there are also studies being conducted on the use of solid-state batteries. Although the use of solid-state electrolytes and metal anodes is expected to gain widespread acceptance in the near future, the basic chemistry used in batteries such as LFP, NMC, and NCA will remain in place for a long time. Currently, the production capacity of lithium-ion batteries is around 700 to 800 gigawatt hours. However, by 2030, this figure is expected to increase to over 2,500 gigawatt hours. Around 130 Giga factories are currently being established in various countries. In India, the government has launched the Advanced Cell Chemistry Manufacturing (ACC-PLI) scheme, which aims to establish a manufacturing facility with a capacity of up to 50 gigawatt hours. The results of the competition have been released. Out of the four participants, two of them have been selected for a 20 giga-watt-hour facility while the other two have been allocated five gigawatt-hour facilities.

The ACC-PLI scheme is beneficial for India as it encourages the development of advanced batteries by providing incentives related to their higher energy density and cycle life. This is because the government's encouragement is based on the technological advancements that have occurred in the field of battery technology. In terms of the electric vehicle market, India is expected to be a major contributor to the growth of the global lithium battery market. Due to the country's increasing urbanization and the increasing number of two-wheelers and three-wheelers, the demand for lithium batteries is expected to continue to grow.

Aside from the electric vehicle market, the lithium battery market is also expected to grow at a steady rate over the next couple of years. In the next three to four years, the market is expected to reach around 25 gigawatts. This is a huge opportunity for India as it is estimated that the demand for lithium batteries could reach 150 gigawatts by 2030. Today, most of the battery packs sold in India come with a Chinese battery management system, which is mainly a hardware protection board. However, various features that are required in India are not available in these products. For instance, cell balancing, temperature sensors, and a state of charge computation are not available in these products. In order to meet the safety requirements of the electric vehicle industry, India needs a battery management system that has all the necessary features. One of these is cell balancing, which is very important because no two cells are the same. This ensures that all the batteries are balanced properly. During a recharge cycle, one cell may become weak, which then causes all the other cells to get charged.

In addition to cell balancing, India also needs a battery management system that has a pre-charge and pre-discharge path, which is very important for handling high surge currents. This is because when the motor controller is used, the battery pack should be charged with a higher current. Having these two features will help improve the life of the battery. Another important aspect of a battery management system is the dynamic cut-off requirements, which are the requirements that have to be changed in order to meet the safety requirements of the electric vehicle industry. This is because different factors such as the environment and the life of the battery have to be taken into account in order to improve its safety. One of the most critical factors that a battery management system should consider is the temperature dependent cut-off requirements. This is because during peak summer or winter, it is important to reduce the output current to improve the life of the battery. The price of lithium-ion batteries has been continuously falling, as a result of what is known as Wright's Law. This is a prediction based on Moore's Law, which states that if the world's production capacity doubles, the cost of a battery will fall by a certain percentage. The price of lithium-ion batteries is expected to continue falling as the global production capacity increases. In the next couple of years, the prices are expected to fall to around $100 per kilowatt-hour. This will be a huge boost for the electric vehicle industry in India.

According to a study conducted by the CEEW, the country's electric vehicle market is expected to be worth over $200 billion. The Niti-Aayog also noted that the adoption rate for the electric vehicle in the country is expected to be around 80per cent. Lithium-ion batteries have been around for a long time, and the electric vehicle industry is expected to take off in the next couple of years. The rapid emergence and adoption of electric vehicles in India and around the globe is due to the technological advancements that have occurred in the field of battery technology. One of the most important factors that India needs to consider when it comes to developing its electric vehicle industry is the design of a battery pack that is specifically designed for the country. This type of battery pack should feature all the features that are expected to be standard in electric vehicles in the country. The rapid emergence and adoption of electric vehicles in India and around the globe is due to the technological advancements that have occurred in the field of battery technology. The increasing connectivity and big data that will be generated by the electric vehicle industry will be a game-changer for the mobility industry.

CONCLUSION

2022 will witness the emergence of various new technologies that will help transform the transportation industry, such as the introduction of electric cars and self-driving cars. New innovations in hydrogen fuel cell technology and smart charging will also help improve the efficiency of vehicles. The pandemic that hit the transportation industry in the last two years has changed the face of the industry. In 2022, various changes are expected to affect the automotive industry. Despite the various changes that are expected to affect the transportation industry in 2022, India still has a long way to go in reaching its goal of becoming a 100per cent electric vehicle nation by 2030. The country's EV ecosystem is expected to be a noteworthy competitor in the global race. After the progress that India has made in the electric mobility industry, it still has a long way to go in reaching its goal of becoming a 100per cent electric vehicle nation by 2030. The country is racing to become the hub of the battery manufacturing industry, and an all-EV environment is expected to be in place by 2030.

Pic Courtsey-Wlademar Brandt at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)