Decoding US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Visit to Vietnam

Initiated by former Presidents Barack Obama and Tr??ng T?n Sang in 2013, the year 2023 marks the 10th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership. Secretary Blinken's visit aims to enhance the bilateral relationship between the two nations, which has been built on trust and a shared objective of overcoming the aftermath of war and establishing diplomatic ties since 1995 [3]. Over the past decade, the partnership has flourished and expanded to encompass various areas such as economic, political, security, people-to-people ties, science and technology, health, climate, energy, education, and human rights.  With the common goal of an open, connected, and peaceful Indo-Pacific region, the bilateral ties between the two countries have developed into a strong partnership over the years.

US-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership:

The U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership was launched in July 2013 by Presidents Obama and Sang to strengthen their bilateral relationship. This partnership has enabled the United States to reaffirm its commitment to the Indo-Pacific rebalance and implement important initiatives that support U.S.-Vietnam relations. In an effort to further develop the Comprehensive Partnership and recognize the significant progress made in U.S.-Vietnam relations over time, then Secretary of State John Kerry announced several initiatives and engagements on various issues, such as the economy, environment, education, human rights, and maritime capacity building. Moreover, since the Comprehensive Partnership was announced in 2013, the United States and Vietnam have initiated several agreements and collaborations, including a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, an MoU on unexploded ordnance cooperation, and an environmental assessment contract for dioxin contamination at Bien Hoa Air Base. The two nations have also increased their bilateral dialogues and high-level visits, such as visits by Treasury Secretary Jacob L Lew, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman, United States Pacific Command Commander Samuel J Locklear, and Coast Guard Commandant Robert J Papp, to enhance their cooperation on significant regional and global issues [4].

Takeaways from the meeting:

During the meeting, Secretary Blinken and Vietnamese PM Pham Minh Chinh pledged to strengthen their relationship to new heights.  The meeting took place two weeks after the 50th anniversary of the withdrawal of American troops thereby ending America’s direct military involvement in Vietnam. Blinken also participated in the ceremony for a new $1.2 billion U.S. embassy complex in the Vietnamese capital, which is expected to demonstrate the Biden administration's commitment to improving ties, especially after diplomatic relations were restored in 1995, less than 30 years ago. Secretary Blinken further mentioned the transfer of a third Coast Guard cutter to Vietnam, in addition to the existing maritime security cooperation through which the U.S. provided Vietnam with 24 patrol boats since 2016, alongside other equipment and training [5]. Despite Vietnam’s past record with concerns over human rights, the U.S. sees Vietnam as a crucial component of its strategy in the region, leveraging Vietnam's traditional rivalry with China to expand U.S. influence.

Although U.S. officials avoid discussing China, such visits are viewed in the context of the USA’s larger strategy towards China. In this regard, Blinken's reference to maritime capacity building in the South China Sea indicates that the visit is part of a broader strategic approach in Asia to counter China in the maritime domain.

Vietnam’s Role in Indo-Pacific:

While the two countries have had disputes in the past, they share a common vision of a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific. The main challenge, however, is China, with whom Vietnam has territorial and maritime disputes in the South China Sea. China's increasing assertiveness and use of belligerent tactics in the region have destabilized the area, jeopardizing peace, and stability. To counter China's influence, the US is pursuing a strategy of providing local economies in the region with the flexibility to economically hedge against China. By building greater economic synergy with the US, countries like Vietnam can become bases for "friend-shoring" for Western companies [6]. This strategy can help mitigate the risk of economic disruptions in the region caused by political problems, as well as counter China's weaponization of economic interdependencies as a coercive strategy. However, the US strategy is not to decouple the Chinese economy altogether, as that is seen as impractical and undesirable. Instead, the strategy focuses on providing economic alternatives and flexibility to the countries in the region, to reduce their dependency on China. The US has been promoting initiatives like the Blue Dot Network, which seeks to promote private sector-led, sustainable infrastructure development in the region while adhering to high standards of transparency and quality. Thus, Vietnam plays a crucial role in the US's strategy to counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region. By building greater economic synergy with the US, Vietnam and other countries in the region can become more economically flexible and less dependent on China.

Vietnam’s position in USA’s strategy towards China:

The United States is facing significant challenges as it seeks to build a coalition in Southeast Asia to counter China's growing influence and assertiveness in the region. One of the main difficulties is the reluctance of many countries in the region to antagonize China, given its status as a military power, crucial trading partner, and as source of investment. Therefore, the US is making efforts to strengthen ties with other Southeast Asian countries in order to persuade them to take a more assertive position against China. Here, Vietnam must strike a difficult balance in its relations with both the USA and China. On the one hand, while Vietnam is concerned about China's growing military ambitions in the South China Sea, where there are ongoing territorial disputes, it does not want to provoke China, given its geographic proximity and economic importance. Therefore, Vietnam has been trying to enhance its cooperation with the US without causing tensions with China. This has involved careful diplomacy and a focus on areas where US-Vietnam cooperation is less likely to alarm China, such as maritime security, trade, and investment.

The diplomatic balancing for Vietnam is further complicated by the close China and Russia bilateral ties [7]. As China's relations with the West have become more strained in recent years, it has turned to Russia as a strategic partner. This has led to a closer alignment between the two countries on a range of issues and the bilateral relation was further amplified by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent economic sanctions on Russia. For Vietnam, this means that its relations with the USA are increasingly seen in the context of the broader strategic competition between the USA and China, with Russia playing a secondary role.

Overall, the USA faces significant challenges in building a coalition in Southeast Asia to counter China's growing influence and assertiveness. While some countries are willing to take a more assertive stance, many are reluctant to provoke China given its status as a military might and as an important trading partner. For Vietnam, in particular, finding ways to enhance its cooperation with the USA without causing tensions with China is a challenging task, given China's growing military ambitions in the South China Sea and its close relationship with Russia.

External Reactions and Comments:

Although Vietnam has strategic partnerships with numerous American allies, its own partnership with the USA remains at the “lower comprehensive" level due to disagreements over human rights [8]. However, political analysts are of the view that Vietnam may agree to further expand the relationship during Blinken's visit, which would contribute to maintaining the stability and security of Southeast Asia and make Vietnam more proactive and confident in countering security challenges. Vietnam has comprehensive partnerships with 12 other countries, strategic partnerships with 13 others, and comprehensive strategic partnerships with China, Russia, India, and South Korea. If the USA and Vietnam were to boost their relations, it would prompt China to react across various aspects, including security, economic development, trade, and cultural exchange.

According to Dinh, a former vice-president of the Ho Chi Minh Bar Association, Vietnam's importance to the US regional strategy, particularly in containing China in the South China Sea, remains significant and therefore, the USA seeks to deepen the bilateral relationship. Dinh also believes that for the USA, regional security issues are of primary concern and precede human rights in Vietnam. However, he cautioned that the Vietnamese government must handle the upgrade of bilateral ties with the USA keeping in mind to avoid any provocative actions against China, and should refrain from stating the USA as a strategic partner too quickly. [9].

China, on the other hand, is of the view that the USA is still functioning in a Cold War mentality and is therefore attempting to bring Vietnam into its sphere of influence. However, Vietnam has its own interests and will not be easily swayed by the USA. Despite Blinken's visit to Vietnam, the response has been cautious, with structural contradictions between the two countries, particularly over human rights [10]. While the USA sees Vietnam as leverage against China, it is not hesitant to use economic sanctions against Vietnam when its interests are ever in conflict with each other. Despite this, Vietnam has been able to pursue an independent and diversified multilateral diplomatic route through its "bamboo diplomacy," expanding bilateral ties and responding to global challenges flexibly while exploring a foreign policy with Vietnamese characteristics.

Conclusion:

While the attempts made by the USA in aligning countries in Southeast Asia suggest a larger strategy toward containing China’s influence in the region, Vietnam remains aware that its strategic partnership with the USA is likely to cost a response from China. While the visit has not resulted in any aggressive posturing by China, it is Vietnam that needs to ensure the avoidance of any provocations against China. So, far Vietnam has been yielding good results through its bamboo diplomacy and balancing relations with both the USA and China and the Chinese media has also not given any aggressive remarks about the visit. But as USA’s strategy towards countering China expand in the future, such neutral posturing is likely to get difficult. However, as of now, Vietnam’s role in the USA’s strategy for the region is limited to areas of maritime security, trade, development, and cultural exchanges which are likely to get less aggressive reactions from China.

Endnotes:

1.       Rudroneel Ghosh, Vietnam-US Tango: Blinken’s visit shows why Hanoi is in great demand, Times of India, 19 April 2023 https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/talkingturkey/vietnam-us-tango-blinkens-visit-shows-why-hanoi-is-in-great-demand/

2.     Vedant Patel, Secretary Blinken’s Trip to the United Kingdom, Ireland, Vietnam, and Japan, Press Statement, US Department of State10 April 2023 https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-trip-to-the-united-kingdom-ireland-vietnam-and-japan/

3.      Fact Sheet, The United States-Vietnam Relationship: Celebrating 10 years of Comprehensive Partnership and 28 years of Diplomatic Relations, US Department of State, 13 April 2023 https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-vietnam-relationship-celebrating-10-years-of-comprehensive-partnership-and-28-years-of-diplomatic-relations/

4.     Fact Sheet, US-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership, US Department of State, 16 December 2013 https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/218734.htm

5.     Matthew Lee, US, Vietnam pledge to boost relations during Blinken’s visit to Hanoi, PBS News, 15 April 2023 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-vietnam-pledge-to-boost-relations-during-blinkens-visit-to-hanoi

6.     Rudroneel Ghosh, Vietnam-US Tango: Blinken’s visit shows why Hanoi is in great demand, Times of India, 19 April 2023 https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/talkingturkey/vietnam-us-tango-blinkens-visit-shows-why-hanoi-is-in-great-demand/

7.     US looks to boost ties in Vietnam as China reportedly stalls Blinken visit, The Guardian, 15 April 2023 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/15/us-looks-to-boost-ties-in-vietnam-as-china-reportedly-refuses-to-reschedule-blinken-visit

8.     Quoc Phuong, Blinken’s trip to Vietnam may result in possible upgrade for US-Vietnam ties, translated by Anna Vu, RFA, 14 April 2023 https://www.rfa.org/english/news/vietnam/blinken-trip-04142023171556.html

9.     Quoc Phuong, Blinken’s trip to Vietnam may result in possible upgrade for US-Vietnam ties, translated by Anna Vu, RFA, 14 April 2023 https://www.rfa.org/english/news/vietnam/blinken-trip-04142023171556.html

10.  Li Jiangang, Vietnam remains vary of US attempt to rope it in an anti-China chariot, Global Times, 16 April 2023 https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202304/1289219.shtml

Pic Courtsey-Andrea Popa at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)