Cross-strait relations: Likely trajectory of China-Taiwan ties in 2022

On one hand, the mainland continues to publicly defame and intimidate the island nation, on the other hand, Taiwan has stood headstrong while rallying support for its cause from the international community. In his speech at the centenary celebrations of the Communist Party of China (CPC) last July, President Xi Jinping mentioned that resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China’s complete reunification is a “historic mission and an unshakable commitment of the Communist Party of China” [1]. “We must take resolute action to utterly defeat any attempt toward “Taiwan independence,” and work together to create a bright future for national rejuvenation. No one should underestimate the resolve, the will, and the ability of the Chinese people to defend their national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he added, referring to the lobbying of the international community behind the democratically governed island nation. Speaking at Taiwan’s National Day celebrations in Taipei, Tsai struck down Jinping’s comments saying that Taiwan stood on democracy’s first line of defence and that Taipei would not act rashly but would bolster its defence to ensure that nobody can force Taiwan to take the path China has laid out for them.

Warning Signs

There have been multiple warning signs from Beijing to demonstrate its muscle power towards the tiny island-nation off its east coast. In a year full of airspace incursions over Taiwanese airspace, on June 15, China sent 28 aircraft, including 24 offensive aircraft, some of which flew well beyond their normal paths near Taiwan’s south-eastern coast, making it one of the largest incursions until then [2]. Later in October, in a tweet, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said 52 Chinese aircraft which included 34 J-16s, 2 Su-30s, 2 YS-8 anti-submarine warfare planes, 2 KJ-500 AEW&Cs, and 12 H-6 bombers were spotted violating Taiwanese ADIZ norms on October 4. According to the ministry, the intrusions began in late September 2020 and have not stopped ever since.

After repeated incursions of the Taiwanese airspace, the Chinese began a series of amphibious landing exercises in the waters off the eastern coast of Fujian province, closer to the Taiwan Strait [3]. The drills were conducted after the US military’s C-130 transport aircraft carrying three US senators and 750,000 vaccine doses landed at the Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport on July 19.

Earlier in August last year, a report published in the Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief by Conor Kennedy who is an instructor at the US Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute claimed that a roll-on/roll-off ferry known as ‘Bang Chui Dao’ in China has been fitted with a modified ramp able to launch and recover amphibious armoured vehicles while offshore [4]. This development throws light on China’s desperate attempts to address the shortfall of amphibious assault ships which are critical in launching a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

Another viral post circulating on Sohu, a China-based online media, which was published eight years ago had mentioned 6 “inevitable” wars China will have to engage in between 2020 and 2050, in which the first war is the “unification of Tibet” between 2020-2025 [5]. The wars are intended to reclaim their glory, by what the Chinese believe to be national territories lost since Imperial China was defeated by the Brits in the Opium War of 1840-42.

Gray-Zone Warfare

One of the prominent tactics overshadowing the cross-strait relations last year was the ‘gray-zone warfare’. The US Special Operations Command defines the “gray zone” as “competitive interactions among and within state and non-state actors that fall between the traditional war and peace duality”. There was a rise in cyber-attacks, subverting democratic institutions, propagating fake news, and destroying social cohesion, indicating a shift towards gray zone battlefield.

Accelerated disinformation campaigns designed to demoralise Taiwan’s society and undermine popular support for the democratic government in Taipei was prominent. For instance, the state-run Global Times carried an opinion poll that said that 70% of those polled strongly supported using force to unify Taiwan with the mainland, and 37% thought it would be best if the war occurred in three to five years [6].

The fear of an invasion has gripped the minds of the people of Taiwan. The defence ministry recently warned of a possible blockade of its key harbours and ports [7]. “At present, the PLA is capable of performing local joint blockade against our critical harbours, airports, and outbound flight routes, to cut off our air and sea lines of communication and impact the flow of our military supplies and logistic resources,” the ministry said.

Meanwhile, Taiwan has consistently modernized its defence forces in the face of an imminent threat. Washington has been insisting that Taiwan strengthen its military system and employ a “porcupine strategy” that would increase deterrence so that it can defend itself. In March, Taiwan’s Air Force announced plans to buy an upgraded version of Lockheed Martin Corp’s Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) — officially called Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) — that is expected to be delivered by 2025. It also signed two arms procurement contracts with the United States for “a long-range precision fire system” and another “a batch of missiles,” without disclosing other details. Analysts speculate that the procurement also includes Harpoon missiles being fitted to the 200 new and upgraded F-16 Vs fighter jets that Taiwan is ordering from Lockheed Martin in a whopping $8 billion deal. There are also indications in the 2022 budget that Taiwan might procure armed Sea Guardian drones. According to the local Taiwan News, the latest addition to Taiwan’s defence system is a new variant of its Thunderbolt-2000 multiple rocket system (MLRS) that can strike targets within a range of 100 kilometers [8]. The earlier variant of Thunderbolt-2000 is equipped with rockets MK-15, MK-30, and MK-45 with a range of 15-45 kilometers.

Amidst arming itself to the teeth, the democratic country has received a wave of support, especially from the U.S-backed western allies, in spite of having no formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. In the G7 summit held in the summer of 2021 in England, the seven like-minded countries showed unprecedented support to Taiwan by directly attacking China over its assertive behaviour [9]. “We underscore the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and encourage the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues,” the official G7 communique said. The NATO summit also stressed the threat perception of China and how the state “presents systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to alliance security”. The NATO leaders also urged Beijing to act responsibly in the international system. The U.S also sent a formal invitation to Taiwan to the Democracy summit held last month, without extending the same to China.

Individual countries have also taken a stand against China’s coercive behaviour which has jeopardised cross-strait relations. Japan’s deputy PM Taro Aso talked about collective self-defence in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan while extending Tokyo’s support to the US “to defend Taiwan together”. Terming it a “survival-threatening situation”, Aso said that Japan’s Self-Defence Forces (SDF) could be deployed to protect Japan’s national security since an attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival as well. Lithuania on the other hand allowed Taipei to open a de facto embassy using the country name “Taiwan”.

References:

[1]https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Full-text-of-Xi-Jinping-s-speech-on-the-CCP-s-100th-anniversary

[2]Taiwan’s Ministry of Defence official Twitter handle: https://twitter.com/MoNDefense?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[3]https://eurasiantimes.com/china-threatens-to-hunt-down-us-military-jets-if-they-again-land-in-taiwan/

[4]https://eurasiantimes.com/mission-taiwan-report-exposes-chinas-innovative-strategy-for-possible-invasion-of-tiny-taiwan/

[5]http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/six-wars-china-is-sure-to-fight-in-the-next-50-years/

[6]https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/20823421

[7]https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Taiwan-says-China-can-blockade-its-key-harbors-and-airports

[8]https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4226510

[9]https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2021/06/14/2003759130

Pic Courtsey-Ling Tangat unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)