COP-27 -Expectations and Possibilities

This year COP27 took place from November 6 to 18 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, and extedned for one more day ,which is known for its year-round mild weather, hilly surrounds, and crystal clear water rich in coral reefs. In the midst of these ideal environmental conditions, critical commitments for the climate future of our and future generations will be made.

The president of the European Union, Ursula Von der Leyen, and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak, are among those scheduled to speak. Both have aggressive aims for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, is also set to speak, although his country has no intentions to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels. Several key world leaders will not be present at a convention centre on the Red Sea's shores, including China's Xi Jinping, the world's largest emitter, and India's Narendra Modi, whose emissions are expected to rise sharply. Russia's president, Vladimir V. Putin, whose war on Ukraine is funded by the country's vast reserves of fossil fuels, is also not coming.

COP27 is a once-in-a-lifetime chance for parties and observers to join together and address a global crisis. While the COP is taking place amid a global 'polycrisis,' climate action and collaboration may give effective paths ahead on food, energy, nature, and security, as well as a critical nexus of international debate and cooperation on these problems.

FROM COP 26 TO COP 27 

The Paris Agreement's unresolved concerns have to be addressed during COP26, including the finalisation of the Paris Rulebook, which tries to set long-term goals and offers advice to states creating strategies to address the climate disaster. Beyond mitigation measures, which is to keep global warming far below 2°C and the 1.5°C objectives alive, the Paris Rulebook considers how nations may build resilience and strengthen their adaptive ability in the face of changing climate, as well as drive financial investments to support those improvements. The Glasgow Climate Pact, approved by and applicable to all Paris Agreement participants, was the formal and flagship consequence of COP26 (194 countries). The Pact recognised the disparity between emission reduction forecasts in the scenario of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) released at COP26 and the actions required to keep within a 1.5°C warming trajectory. It further asked that parties examine and strengthen their objectives and connect them with longer-term strategies. In other words, it urged governments to adopt mid-century targets rather than focusing just on 2030, the initial target year for NDCs.

According to the Climate Action Tracker, a platform that analyses climate policies and commitments from the world's largest polluters, only Australia has filed a more aggressive NDC for 2022. However, the island nation was one of the few that did not offer an update before COP26, despite their promise being long overdue. India, Brazil, and Egypt, the COP27 host country, have also issued an official update. Apart from these, 173 countries did not revise their targets, leading to the conclusion that, just weeks before COP27, the commitments are little changed from last year. Indeed, the most recent World Resources Institute report providing a global NDC analysis, released in October 2022, emphasises the pledges' inadequacy to avert significant warming.

AGENDA OF COP 27

Egypt's chairmanship of the COP this year is very crucial since it is a middle-income, African, and Middle Eastern country hosting this summit. As a result, Egypt may be able to influence agenda issues and bring more attention to Africa's growing need for adaptation and mitigation funds.

The COP27 agenda covers four major topics for discussion: climate finance, adaptation, loss and damage, and greater ambition. Concerning climate finance, it is critical to guarantee that wealthy nations meet their responsibility to developing countries in terms of the $100 billion per year financial pledge made at COP15 in Copenhagen. Since the Paris Climate Accords were established in 2015, there has not been a single year in which the $100 billion per year financial objective has been reached. Concerning adaptation, COP27 is dubbed an "African COP" since it is being held in one of the continents most affected by climate change. As a result, stakeholders anticipate a greater political motivation to expand global financing for adaptation measures. Currently, 80% of the overall climate finance portfolio is dedicated to mitigation, while only 20% is dedicated to adaptation.

Then, loss and damage have become a difficult issue that has been debated for numerous years with no agreement on an enforceable work plan. Some countries will suffer total and irreversible losses as a result of climate change, whether it is a small island state that will be completely inundated by sea level rise, complete bleaching of coral reefs in some seas, or the extinction of specific flora and fauna from ecosystems as a result of global warming. Economic losses include damage to resources, goods, and services such as agriculture, infrastructure, tourism, etc. In contrast, non-economic losses include the loss of family members, the disappearance of culture and ways of life, or migration from one's home. Finally, the fourth agenda item is to raise ambition. This means bringing the parallel political commitments of many stakeholders and the larger global community to the climate cause.

Egypt and the Middle East are rising faster than the rest of the world, with a 5°C increase in temperature expected by the end of the century. The conflict in Ukraine is also hurting food and energy costs and availability. Egypt has a significant role to play in promoting the four key agenda items mentioned above. Egypt is also expected to continue to express the global south's demands and expectations, particularly those of its immediate African neighbours.

EXPECTATIONS AND POSSIBILITIES

After nearly a year of environmental disasters, shared disaster experience, and a previous edition that was heavily criticised as a failure by activists and the most vulnerable groups, the entire world is looking to Sharm El-Sheikh to add momentum to climate action. If COP26 was about establishing the framework and providing guidance, COP27 must be about putting it into action.

As we enter the period of visible, palpable, dramatic, and recurring climate change consequences, the time for planning must come to an end: we must deal with the reality of a 1.1°C warmer planet right now. It hasn't been this hot in 125,000 years, and the effort required to adjust to the conditions is huge. A lot has already been done and is still being done, but investments and participation must be increased to share a livable, viable, and equitable world one day. Everyone would like to hear concrete, constraining, and measurable action commitments, but on-the-ground action on mitigation, adaptation, and conservation must follow suit.

Minorities' and indigenous groups' voices are among the most critical at UN-led conferences, which frequently occur distant from the climate catastrophe's frontlines. Despite improved attempts to expand their participation in prior editions, several impacted communities felt let down by earlier COPs, which they thought were not inclusive enough. Locally-led projects, on the other hand, are increasingly being recognised as important for generating substantial impact through unleashing regional know-how and creativity. The rising push toward nature-based solutions highlights the importance of learning more from more traditional methods of living and managing natural resources. And, since we seek to transition our society to a more ecologically friendly economic model, gaining inspiration from this knowledge has enormous potential. As a result, increasing the prominence of indigenous voices and returning climate action leadership to local stakeholders are critical to COP27 expectations.

COP 27 should, at the very least, initiate a process to establish finance mechanisms to respond to loss and damage under the UNFCCC. At the same time, initiatives outside of official UN discussions must play a role in meeting the required scope. Countries were not scheduled to discuss loss and damage funding arrangements at COP27 formally, but the Group of 77 and China have requested that it be added to the agenda. At COP27, affluent nations must also outline how they will guarantee that this funding reaches those in most need.

India, Australia, Indonesia, and Egypt are among the major polluters that have filed more aggressive climate plans. Several more countries, including Mexico, Turkey, Vietnam, and Chile, are scheduled to provide revised or improved NDCs later this year, but they have already missed a deadline for inclusion in the UN synthesis report, which will be released before COP27. All countries, particularly major emitters, should strengthen their 2030 emissions targets by COP27. These goals must also be supported by policies and, crucially, investment in order to be realised.

Climate finance will be a crucial subject once again at COP27, with a considerable number of scheduled panels and connections with the majority of agenda items. Developed countries will be urged to provide adequate financial help to developing countries, particularly those most susceptible to climate risks. COP27 must also signal that adaptation grant-based financing will be significantly increased, as adaptation remains significantly underfunded in comparison to mitigation.

CONCLUSION

This year, the Conference of the Parties provides a chance to shift the narrative away from Africa as a continent beset by various issues and toward Africa as a continent capable of providing answers to climate catastrophe. In short, the forthcoming COP27 will focus on boosting meaningful mitigation and adaptation activities in the most vulnerable nations by leveraging climate funding and going local. Those that have previously made bold commitments or joined initiatives should discuss progress to date and reveal any hurdles at COP27. Governments, in particular, must show where they have and have not achieved progress. COP27 may take place against the backdrop of an uncertain world, which is facing multiple crisis at the same time. But, it also provides an opportunity to foster greater cooperation at a time when the world most need it. That is the opportunity that leaders, governments, and corporations should seize.

REFERENCES-

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6.       Egypt is hosting COP27. What are the expectations? - Atlantic Council. (n.d.), from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/egypt-is-hosting-cop27-what-are-the-expectations/

7.        Priorities at UN Climate Summit (COP27) | World Resources Institute. (n.d.), from https://www.wri.org/insights/cop27-priorities

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9.       What is COP27 and why is it important? (2022, October 25). BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63316362

Pic Courtsey-COP 21 website

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)