Bhutan’s Election 2024 : A Comprehensive Analysis and Key Take Aways

In the heart of the towering Himalayas, lies Bhutan, the youngest democracy in South Asia[1]. Its 4th National Assembly elections, concluded on January 9, 2024[2], were a testament to the nation's unyielding commitment to democratic values. Despite a modest turnout of 63%[3], a shade lower than its 2018 predecessor, the event reflected Bhutan's distinctive journey towards democratic governance, a path forged amidst the challenges of the early 2000s. However, beneath this surface of democratic fervor, lies a narrative woven with intricate complexities, particularly entangled within the geopolitical fabric of the Himalayan region. Bhutan's proximity to the ongoing boundary negotiations between neighboring titans, India and China, has cast a spotlight on its geopolitical significance. This pivotal moment serves as a backdrop, highlighting the nuanced challenges that Bhutan grapples with as it navigates the delicate balance between democratic ideals and the realpolitik of its surroundings. In this article, we delve into the key takeaways and complexities arising from the Bhutan Election 2024, exploring its implications on both domestic governance and international relations.

Democratic Transition

Bhutan's journey towards democracy began in 2008, driven by the King's desire to modernize and democratize the nation[4]. However, it was the criticism surrounding the expulsion of the Lhotshampas, an ethnic Nepali minority group in southern Bhutan, that acted as a significant catalyst for this transition[5]. The expulsion, justified by Bhutan to preserve its national cultural identity, caused tensions with neighbouring Nepal, as the Lhotshampas had settled predominantly in refugee camps there[6]. There were fears that Nepalese Maoists might arm the Lhotshampas, potentially leading to unrest in Bhutan[7]. Responding to these concerns, the monarchy swiftly implemented political reforms, aiming to reassure critics that human rights were protected under the new constitution[8].

In 2007, the UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) collaborated to resettle over 100,000 Lhotshampa refugees from Nepal to various countries, including Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States[9]. Despite these resettlement efforts, some individuals remain in refugee camps, clinging to the hope of returning home one day.[10] This historical context underscores the complexities and challenges that Bhutan faced on its path to democracy, highlighting the importance of addressing issues of cultural identity and human rights in the transition process.

Political Landscape and Election outcomes[11]

In the 2024 Bhutanese elections, the electoral framework mirrors the nation's evolution toward democracy in the early 2000s. Bhutan embraces a constitutional monarchy paired with a parliamentary democracy, featuring the National Assembly and the National Council as its principal institutions. Central to the electoral process is the monarch, whose executive powers are counterbalanced by elected representatives. This system underscores Bhutan's commitment to cultural values, national unity, and the unique concept of Gross National Happiness. Bhutan's electoral mechanism operates through a mixed-member system, amalgamating aspects of both first-past-the-post and proportional representation to ensure equitable representation of diverse perspectives in governance.

Among the competing political entities—namely the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT), Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT), Druk Thuendrel Tshogpa (DTT), and Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP)—only the PDP and BTP progressed to the General Round on January 9. Ultimately, the PDP emerged victorious, securing 30 seats under the leadership of Tshering Tobgay, a Harvard-educated former civil servant who previously served as Bhutan’s second prime minister from 2013 to 2018. Despite sharing campaign agendas focused on economic rejuvenation and upholding the rule of law, the PDP's distinguished track record in driving economic progress and its seasoned political acumen provided a decisive edge over the nascent BTP.

Bhutan's Development Dilemmas

Despite Bhutan's notable advancements in health, education, and infrastructure over its 15-year democratic journey, there remains a significant concern regarding the translation of these achievements into tangible economic progress and the resolution of youth unemployment. The 2019 United Nations Development Programme report acknowledges Bhutan's strides in human development, yet economic hurdles persist[12]. The focal points of the 2024 elections highlight crucial issues such as youth unemployment, economic growth, a declining private sector, poverty, migration, brain drain, and a decreasing fertility rate.

Notably, Bhutan saw a rise in youth unemployment from 20.9% in 2021 to 28.9% in 2022. Both the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP) have outlined similar agendas in their manifestos, vowing to tackle these issues, particularly the concerning trend of skilled professionals leaving the country[13]. In the past year alone, nearly 15,000 Bhutanese individuals, including professionals and skilled workers, departed, straining public service delivery in vital sectors such as healthcare and education[14]. Economically, Bhutan faces challenges, with an average growth rate of only 1.7% over the last five years, the lowest in recent history[15]. The private sector, essential for economic stability, is grappling with stagnation, leading to reduced business operations and closures. Moreover, there has been a worrying increase in poverty levels across the country.

Balancing Regional Dynamics and International Interests[16]

Bhutan's recent parliamentary elections garnered global attention, drawing praise for their peaceful conduct. While the international community, including India and the United States, celebrated democracy's success, the results have triggered a subtle dance of regional dynamics and international interests.

India, recognizing Bhutan's strategic significance, is eager to strengthen ties with the new government. Sharing a vital border and facing potential Chinese incursions, India holds a keen interest in the Dhoklam region, where a past standoff with China highlighted regional tensions. Unresolved border disputes between Bhutan and China further complicate the situation, with India wary of any concessions that might compromise the Siliguri Corridor, its vital lifeline to the northeast. The prospect of Bhutan-China diplomatic ties, though distant, raises concerns for India's historically dominant influence in Bhutan's foreign affairs. This prompts a desire for closer collaboration to safeguard its strategic interests. Beyond immediate neighbours, the United States, though geographically distant, closely monitors Bhutan's China engagement due to its potential regional impact. Bhutan's lack of formal ties with major powers like China and the US could attract heightened US interest if it chooses to engage with China. This could lead to the US seeking a more active role in Bhutan to foster regional stability and address shared concerns.

In conclusion, Bhutan's elections have triggered a complex interplay of regional dynamics and international interests. India's desire to maintain influence, China's potential involvement, and the US's watchful eye will shape the future course of Bhutan's foreign relations and its role in the broader Himalayan landscape.

Way Forward

The People's Democratic Party (PDP)'s victory in the 2024 Bhutanese elections presents a fascinating mix of challenges and opportunities. While attracting businesses for economic growth is a stated goal, it must be carefully calibrated to maintain the nation's core philosophy of "Gross National Happiness," which prioritizes well-being over unbridled materialism. This delicate balance necessitates strategic partnerships, innovative solutions, and robust private sector participation without compromising Bhutan's unique cultural identity.

The new government shoulders the weighty task of revitalizing the economy, creating jobs, addressing wealth disparity, and bolstering agriculture. Strengthening educational and medical institutions further necessitates tackling brain drain, a long-standing issue hampering growth. A focus on building a strong service sector could prove valuable in this pursuit.

However, one shadow looms large over Bhutan's future: the unresolved border dispute with China. Resolving it peacefully without raising Indian concerns demands diplomatic finesse. Given India's strategic interests intrinsically linked to Bhutan's geographical position vis-à-vis China, any decisions to engage with China will have significant regional ramifications, impacting the broader Himalayan landscape for India and potentially even major world powers.

Several future possibilities emerge from this complex scenario:

·        Enhanced Regional Cooperation: If Bhutan manages to navigate its relationship with China delicately, it could potentially facilitate closer regional cooperation between India, China, and Bhutan, fostering economic ties and stability in the Himalayas.

·        Shifting Strategic Landscape: Should Bhutan deepen its engagement with China, it could alter the strategic landscape in the region, potentially leading to increased US interest in countering Chinese influence. This could see Bhutan becoming a key player in the evolving geopolitical chessboard of the Himalayas.

·        Sustainable Development Model: Bhutan's unique approach to development, focused on happiness and well-being, could serve as a model for other nations seeking to balance economic progress with environmental and social sustainability. Sharing its experiences and successes on this front could position Bhutan as a leader in sustainable development discourse.

Ultimately, the new government's choices will determine how Bhutan navigates these intricate challenges and opportunities. By carefully balancing domestic aspirations with regional dynamics and international interests, Bhutan can carve a unique path forward, ensuring its prosperity while safeguarding its identity and values.

Bibliography

1.   University of Jammu, Jammu, D. of P. S. (2019, July 6). State of Democracy in South Asia. https://www.jammuuniversity.ac.in/cms/sites/default/files/inline-files/pic280136.PDF  
2.  DORJI, P. (2024, February 8). Analysing Bhutan’s fourth National Assembly elections. orfonline.org. https://www.orfonline.org/research/analysing-bhutan-s-fourth-national-assembly-elections  
3.  Gupta, R. (2024, January 29). Bhutan’s 2024 elections: Economic Complexities and Regional dynamics. Asia Society. https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/bhutans-2024-elections-economic-complexities-and-regional-dynamics  
4. Shrestha, D. D. (2015, November 19). Resettlement of Bhutanese refugees surpasses 100,000 mark. UNHCR India. https://www.unhcr.org/in/news/stories/resettlement-bhutanese-refugees-surpasses-100-000-mark  

End Notes

[1] University of Jammu, Jammu, D. of P. S. (2019, July 6). State of Democracy in South Asia. https://www.jammuuniversity.ac.in/cms/sites/default/files/inline-files/pic280136.PDF

[2] DORJI, P. (2024, February 8). Analysing Bhutan’s fourth National Assembly elections. orfonline.org. https://www.orfonline.org/research/analysing-bhutan-s-fourth-national-assembly-elections

[3] Ibid

[4] Gupta, R. (2024, January 29). Bhutan’s 2024 elections: Economic Complexities and Regional dynamics. Asia Society. https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/bhutans-2024-elections-economic-complexities-and-regional-dynamics

[5] Ibid

[6] Ibid

[7] Ibid

[8] Ibid

[9] Shrestha, D. D. (2015, November 19). Resettlement of Bhutanese refugees surpasses 100,000 mark. UNHCR India. https://www.unhcr.org/in/news/stories/resettlement-bhutanese-refugees-surpasses-100-000-mark 

[10] Gupta, R. (2024, January 29). Bhutan’s 2024 elections: Economic Complexities and Regional dynamics. Asia Society. https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/bhutans-2024-elections-economic-complexities-and-regional-dynamics

[11] Entire Section referenced from Gupta, R. (2024, January 29). Bhutan’s 2024 elections: Economic Complexities and Regional dynamics. Asia Society. https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/bhutans-2024-elections-economic-complexities-and-regional-dynamics

[12] Ibid

[13] Ibid

[14] Ibid

[15] Gupta, R. (2024, January 29). Bhutan’s 2024 elections: Economic Complexities and Regional dynamics. Asia Society. https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/bhutans-2024-elections-economic-complexities-and-regional-dynamics

[16] Gupta, R. (2024, January 29). Bhutan’s 2024 elections: Economic Complexities and Regional dynamics. Asia Society. https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/bhutans-2024-elections-economic-complexities-and-regional-dynamics

Pic Courtsey- Uttam Kumar

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)