US decreasing aid to Ukraine: Is government shutdown a threat?

Despite the growing number of Republicans who support the continued aid to Ukraine, some of them have criticized the actions of the Biden administration. The US government shutdown was averted after Democrats decided not to include the $24 billion aid request made by the Biden administration.

Only a small majority of Americans (51%) believe that the money spent for military aid to Ukraine was worthwhile. On the other hand, 45% of the public think that the money was not worth it. Democrats are more likely to believe that the aid was worth it, while independents and Republicans are more likely to think that it wasn't. Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, the US has provided the country with various weapons and equipment. This amount, which is about 4% of the Department of Defense's annual budget, is equivalent to over $43 billion. But in contemporary scenerio, there is a decrease in aid to ukraine from US. And despite the decrease in support, the public still supports the continued delivery of military equipment and economic assistance to Ukraine. The public supports the continued provision of economic and military aid to Ukraine. Although this support is lower than it was last year, it is still higher than it was in 2015 after Crimea was seized. Across party lines, Republicans are the least likely to back sending more military and economic aid. On the other, Democrats are more likely than independents and Republicans to support the continued aid.

Most Americans still oppose sending troops to Ukraine to help it defend itself against Russia. This was an option that US President Biden ruled out at the beginning of the conflict. Despite this, a majority of Americans support the country's request to acquire F-16 fighter jets.

If the situation in Ukraine worsens, a majority of Americans would like to see the US deploy troops to defend its allies. In response to two hypothetical scenarios, about six in 10 Americans said they would support sending troops to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Germany if Russia attacked one of them.

Should Ukraine Negotiate?

Despite the Biden administration's insistence that it will continue supporting Ukraine for as long it takes, Americans are less sympathetic to the situation in the country. According to a survey conducted by the Chicago Council in 2023, half of Americans still support the US' support for Ukraine, even at the cost of higher food and gas prices. On the other hand, almost half of Americans want the US to urge Ukraine to resolve its conflict with Russia by settling for a peace deal.

The number of Americans who support the US' support for Ukraine has decreased significantly since July 2022. Support for the country's war effort has remained stable since then, and it is still supported by almost half of Americans. In November, a survey revealed that almost 70% of Republicans support urging Ukraine to engage in negotiations with Russia, as opposed to 30% who back continuing the US' support. On the other hand, independents are more likely to split their support.

The rising costs of living in the US due to the conflict in Ukraine could affect the opinions of Americans about the country's continued support. To test this, two different scenarios were presented: one focused on Ukraine's territorial expansion, and the other on household expenses. Half of the survey participants were randomly assigned to the questions. Without including the rising prices for food and gas, a majority of Americans support continuing to provide financial and technical support to Ukraine until the country regains control over the territory it lost to Russia. A third of Americans would like to see the US encourage Ukraine to give up territory in exchange for talks with Russia. The results of the survey revealed that Republicans were more likely to split their support between encouraging Kyiv to bargain and continuing to provide aid until Ukraine regains all of its territory. Americans' negative views about the rising cost of living also decreased their support for Ukraine.

Military experts and Western political analysts believe that Russia and Ukraine will continue fighting for decades. This could be a type of war that pits an enemy against an opponent that has depleted its resources, which leads to prolonged conflict. Only 14% of the public in the US thinks that the conflict will come to an end in one year. Some expect the conflict to go on for several years; while others think it will end in a couple of years. On the other hand, those expecting it to last for five years are more pessimistic. Over the past year and a half, the US has provided over $76 billion in aid to Kyiv as a result of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The public's support for the US' involvement in the conflict has dropped since March 2022, when it was still fresh.

According to the Chicago Council's data, the support of Americans for the US' foreign policies regarding Ukraine has remained fairly stable. However, it has started to decrease since the country's financial contribution and length of the conflict have exceeded people's expectations.

·        The lack of interest in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has contributed to the decreased support for the country from the US. In March 2022, 80 percent Americans said they were interested in the situation between the two countries. Now, only two-thirds of them are interested in the news about the conflict. This drop in interest, led to decrease in the level of support for the aid that Ukraine has received.

·        The number of Americans who consider Russia's military power to be a threat to US interests over the next decade has decreased. Support for the country's assistance to Ukraine has also decreased. This is related to the lower level of threat perception about Russia. Support for military and economic aid for Russia is higher among those who believe that its military might pose a threat than those who do not. Although in the survey findings, almost 70% of Americans think that Europe should shoulder the burden of defending Ukraine against Russia, one in three of the country's residents also believe that other countries should be held responsible for the situation.

·        Even after, the growing number of Americans who believe that Europe should shoulder the burden of defending Ukraine against Russia, a majority of Americans still think that the US' support for Ukraine will not deter other countries from taking over weaker regions.

·        For those who believe that the US' support for Ukraine will deter other countries from attacking, 74 percent support the country's access to military supplies and economic aid. On the other hand, 33 percent of Americans think that the assistance does not make a difference and support continued support for Ukraine's defense.

·        Despite the lack of support from the US Congress, supporters of Ukraine are still optimistic about the country's future. They noted that a bill that would fund the government for another year did not include the country's request for additional security assistance. Despite the positive outlook for Ukraine, many members of Congress acknowledged that it was becoming harder to grant the country's request for additional aid due to the ongoing conflict with Russia. Republican members of Congress have been opposing the aid.

Need to avoid government shutdown

The threat of a government shutdown is a recurring concern in American politics, as it is often tied to disagreements over policies and the allocation of resources. Recent developments regarding the aid to Ukraine have highlighted the complicated nature of this issue. There is a need to get a comprehensive analysis of the various factors that affect the US' commitment to international aid.

The inability of Congress to pass a budget and prevent a government shutdown has negative consequences. It can affect the operations of the federal government and the economy, with many of its citizens going without essential services. The shutdown is also a failure of governance, and it can affect the public's confidence in the political process. And the aid to Ukraine was delayed due to various political issues, including immigration reform and the lack of support from Congress. Supporting Ukraine, especially during its conflict with Russia, is essential, as it shows the US' commitment to international organizations and diplomacy.

The House voted last week to cut off $300 million from a defense bill that funds the purchase of weapons and training for Ukrainian soldiers. The move was widely criticized, with opponents celebrating the growing number of House Republicans who are against supporting Ukraine.

Recently, the House Speaker McCarthy, blocked the additional aid for Ukraine from being included in a stopgap measure that would keep the government operating until November 17. He did so by rejecting a Senate proposal that would have provided $6 billion for the country, which is less than the requested amount. Both chambers of Congress passed the stopgap measure in order to avoid a government shutdown.

The actions taken by Congress over the past couple of weeks show a gradual change in the US' support for Ukraine, which has been unwavering since the beginning of its confrontation with Russia. It is a clear example of the Republican Party's inclination to adopt a more isolationist stance. Less than a week after a meeting between US lawmakers and the Ukrainian president, the House did not include the additional aid for Ukraine in the stopgap measure. President Zelenskyy told the lawmakers that his forces were winning the war, but noted that receiving additional aid was vital for the fight. Zelenskyy also noted that without additional aid, Ukraine would lose the war. After Congress averted a government shutdown, Biden called on McCarthy to continue supporting Ukraine. He noted that the US cannot allow its aid to be interrupted.

One of the most important factors that Congress should consider when it comes to preventing a government shutdown is ensuring that the US remains a reliable partner on the world stage. Failure to provide additional aid to Ukraine could have dire consequences for the country and its international reputation. It could also affect the country's national security and strategic interests. The US government should not be considered a priority when it comes to national politics.

Conclusion

The US' international standing and the country's domestic policy are at risk if the government shuts down. This is why it is critically important that political leaders put the country's national interests above partisan politics. A government shutdown can have significant effects, such as disrupting government services and eroding public trust in politics. The situation with Ukraine also highlights the importance of maintaining a firm commitment to international alliances, honoring diplomatic obligations, and safeguarding the reputation of the United States on the global stage. Irrespective of the political divisions in the country, leaders must prioritize stability to safeguard the nation's international obligations, norms of conduct, and reputation. The U.S. plays a vital role as an international partner and must be capable of honoring its commitments and supporting its allies. A government shutdown, especially when it involves international aid, should be prioritized for both global and domestic stability. The debates about Ukraine aid have highlighted the importance of placing the country's interests above partisan politics. They also highlighted the need to maintain a firm commitment to international alliances, honoring diplomatic obligations, and safeguarding the reputation of the US on the global stage.

Pic Courtsey-Eugene at unsplash.com

(The views expressed are those author and do not represent views of CESCUBE.)