Unified Nordic Airforce- A Mini-NATO in the Making?

On 16^th March 2023, the four Nordic countries, namely Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden signed the first Nordic Air Commander’s Intent (NACI)[i] which aimed at merging the air defenses of all four nations, eventually establishing a ‘Unified Nordic Airforce’. With such an alliance popping up in Europe amidst an active war, clearly highlights the growing threat perception about Russia among the Western allies. Furthermore, Major General Jan Dam, Air force commander of the Danish Air Force, upon signing the NACI, stated that the desire for integrating the air forces of the Nordic countries was primarily prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year[ii].

Moreover, with Finland officially becoming a member of NATO and Sweden aiming to join the alliance in July 2023 during NATO’s annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania[iii], the Northern region of Europe would soon become one of NATO’s strongholds. In addition to this, the newly formed entente between the Nordic nations will now be perceived as NATO’s pop-up alliance[iv]. As a whole, this latest façade orchestrated by the Scandinavian nations not only solidifies NATO’s power in Europe but also undermines and deters Vladimir Putin’s Nordic ambitions.

The NACI has put forth an ambitious plan of centralizing the command of about 250 combat aircrafts across four countries under one-command-and-control system[v]. If it comes to fruition, the combined fleet would be a formidable prowess in the whole of Europe as it can undoubtedly be compared to air force fleets of a large European country[vi] (like that of France or United Kingdom). As previously mentioned, the intent to merge the air forces was majorly aimed at countering the rising Russian threat and to have an upper hand if a conflict were to happen with Russia or other adversaries over the Arctic region as well as over the Baltic Sea.

Nevertheless, the notion of a unified Nordic Air command or the concept of alliance-within-an-alliance is not new and has some historical precedent. The plans for a combined Nordic air force have been in consideration since the mid-1990s[vii]. Moreover, there have been multiple joint air operations between NATO and the Nordic countries (Sweden and Finland) in the past. Sweden’s participation in the 2011 NATO-led air operation over Libya and the recent ‘Arctic Challenge Exercise’ hosted by Finland with the NATO allies are some notable examples.[viii]

However, in spite of such joint efforts, the plan to unify the Nordic air force under NATO’s banner did not materialize, mainly because of Sweden and Finland’s non-member status and their disability to work on alliance-standard command-and-control systems[ix]. But with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both Sweden and Finland started shedding their non-alignment and fence-sitting behavior and actively adopted a pro-NATO stance. This rewarded Finland with the much-awaited NATO membership and Sweden an assurance of becoming a NATO member soon. This eliminated the obstacle that was hindering the aspiration of unifying the Nordic air forces, eventually giving a green light to this ambitious cooperation within the ambit of NATO.

The ‘NACI’ Explained

The Nordic Air Commander’s Intent or in short NACI, is a historic agreement signed between the four Nordic countries, i.e., Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, unifying the air defenses of all the four nations, in an effort to counter the looming Russian threat over the Nordic region. The agreement was signed on 16^th March 2023, in Ramstein Air Base, Germany, which was attended by the air force commanders of all the four nations: Danish Major General Jan Dam, Swedish Maj. Gen. Jonas Wikman, Finnish Maj. Gen. Juha-Pekka Keränen and Norwegian Maj. Gen. Rolf Folland. General James B. Hecker, the Commander of NATO’s Air Command was also present during the event. Finally, on 23^rd March 2023 the NACI was announced by releasing an unclassified document directing the development of a ‘Nordic Warfighting Concept for Joint Air Operations’ and underlining four main objectives.[x]

1. Integrated Air Command, Air Operations Planning and Execution[xi] : With the operating environments and conditions being remarkably similar in the four countries involved, it makes more sense to have an integrated Air command allowing them to effectively plan and execute offensive as well as defensive joint air operations.

2. Flexible and Resilient Air Basing[xii] :  With this objective, the agreement allows the partner nations to use runways, airbases, and maintenance facilities of each other more openly and freely.  

3. Shared Air Situational Awareness[xiii] : Prior to this agreement each of the four nations had to conduct their intelligence assessments and tracking of aircraft independently. But with this new pact a common contiguous Defense Zone would be established which would essentially cover the airspace over the Baltic Sea.

4. Common Air Education, Training & Exercises[xiv]: This objective would allow the Air Crew of all the four nations to cross-train and mutually support each other’s forces.

The document also emphasizes developing the above-mentioned concepts utilizing the already know and established NATO methodology and stresses the need to reinforce and bolster the existing efforts within the Nordic Air cooperation[xv]. In addition to this, the document also underlined some crucial short-term or rather medium-term objectives that the NACI aims to achieve. These include preparing, conducting and assessing Nordic Air Response and improving Nordic digital as well as semi-distributed Air Operations Center (AOC)[xvi]. “Long-term permanent solutions to fulfill this intent’s aim shall be determined and established” the document stated lastly[xvii].

Prowess of the ‘Unified Nordic Airforce’

The four Nordic countries—Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden—possess significant air power capabilities, each tailored to their unique defense needs and strategies. The combined air arsenal of these four nations comprising over 250 combat aircraft, undoubtedly rivals that of a large European nation in numbers as well as operational capability. The combat aircraft include advance fighter jets like F-35 Lightning II, F-16 Fighting Falcon, F-18 Hornet, and JAS-39 Gripen E, among others.

Norway, which had been operating a large fleet of Lockheed Martin’s F-16 Fighting Falcon up until 2022, has now been mostly replaced by F-35 fighter jets. At present, it has 57 F-16 jets and 37 F-35 fighter jets with fifteen more of the latter on order.[xviii] Denmark, on the other hand operates over 58 F-16s and has placed an order for 27 F-35s in order to replace its aging fleet. The Finish Air force operates over 62 F/A -18 Hornet jets of C and D models and has 64 F-35s on order. This is the largest order for the new F-35s among the four Nordic countries. And lastly, Sweden is currently operating more than 90 Gripen Fighter Jets of models C, D and E, respectively. These jets are non-stealth in nature and are manufactured by Sweden’s very own Aerospace and defense company Saab AB.

Out of all the Nordic countries, Sweden is the only exception which has clearly shown reluctancy to procure any F-35 aircraft from United States[xix]. Instead, the Swedish military plans to invest in its own fifth-generation low-observability fighter jet, the Flygsystem 2000[xx] as an alternative to the new F-35s. In addition, Sweden has also prioritized modernization and expansion of its own Gripen fighter jets in a bid to Indigenous its entire fighter fleet.

The scholars and military strategists are divided over the effects the Sweden’s policy of not using F-35 aircraft may have on the newly formed alliance. Some argue that this outlier attitude of Sweden would throw the spanner in the works and hinder the objectives of this newly formed alliance. While others argue that Sweden’s home brewed, high-tech Gripen fighters[xxi] would bring a unique element to the alliance as it would make the air arsenal diverse and not analogous. This argument seems more probable as the alliance would now boast different fighter aircraft and not just US made ones. Yes, the F-35s would still comprise the bulk of Nordic fleet, but Sweden’s Gripen jets would bring in the asset of diversity[xxii], benefiting the entire alliance. For example, in the case of electronic warfare or air warfare, it would clearly become challenging for the adversarial power to employ countertactics while facing diverse types of aircraft with distinctive capabilities[xxiii]. Hence, Sweden’s reluctant outlook with regards to employing US fighter jets in its arsenal is more of an asset than liability for both NATO as well as for the Unified Nordic Air Force.

Could the Alliance deter Russia’s Nordic Ambitions?

With Finland becoming the newest member of NATO and Sweden in talks to join the trans-Atlantic alliance, the pre-conceived notions of their neutrality and non-alignment on which Russia used to rely, has now changed. The membership move came as a shock to Russia, to which it sternly blamed the West and warned of serious repercussions in future[xxiv]. In addition, the ‘NACI’ was signed between the Nordic countries within few days of Finland’s accession into NATO, further infuriating the Russians.

Now, with the new air defence alliance in place and three of the four members of this alliance being the members of NATO, Russia needs to consider an enormous front line (Finland-Russian border) on which NATO assets can appear, threatening its territorial integrity and national interests. Moreover, several European countries including the Scandinavian countries (Sweden being the exception) have purchased the F-35 stealth fighter, and in just few years the number of this 5^th generation fighter aircraft will be over 500, posing a great risk to the Russian military. Furthermore, with the formation of a joint air force in the Nordic region, nearly 150 F-35s[xxv] will be flying along the Russian border challenging the Russian air dominance over the region.

For long, Russia has based much of its military strategy on a doctrine of deterrence[xxvi] with a focus on upholding its territorial integrity and defending its interests. It has upgraded its military equipment, created new weaponry and boosted its military presence in strategic areas like the Arctic in recent years. However, the creation of a joint air force in the high-north, forces the Russians to rethink their operational planes. As stated earlier, the new alliance strengthens and unifies the region's defense front against Russia, potentially reducing its ability to project military force across the region. At the very least it means Russia will need to factor in more weapons systems along the entire front.

This means Russian military will now need to prepare and gather intelligence on the weapons carried by F-35s, JAS Gripens, F-18 Hornets and F-16 Fighting Falcons. This alone presents a dilemma for Russian forces, as they are largely occupied by the war operations in Ukraine, leaving them with only few assets to train against such a combined force of different fighter aircraft. All things considered, the creation of the Nordic Joint Air Force poses a serious military challenge to Russia and is likely to have significant repercussions for regional security.

A booster to NATO and Europe’s Security

As for NATO and the security of Europe there would be sizable impact by the creation of Nordic Joint Air Force. The alliance would assist NATO to compensate for gaps in air coverage over the Baltic Sea region, where Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, all of which declared their independence from the Soviet Union around the time of the bloc's collapse, have comparatively small air forces and have relied on NATO for an air-policing mission for the past 20 years[xxvii]. James Black, assistant director of the Defense and Security research group at Rand Europe, argues that the move to unify Nordic air forces would ‘increase the cost and reduce the likelihood of a Russian attack or strikes on any of the Scandinavian countries’[xxviii].

Similarly, the alliance would also increase the region's capacity for defense against a potential military threat from Russia and eventually lessen the dependence of Nordic countries on NATO’s military assistance. Moreover, the United states of America, who endures the most of expenses for NATO could be relieved of some duties and outlays in a crisis/war as the Nordic countries would be well trained and equipped to co-ordinate and co-operate in the initial phases of a potential war. Furthermore, the new alliance might serve as a model for other nations to create their own regional defense alliances, enhancing Europe's defense capabilities.

Conclusion

It's crucial to realize that the alliance is not just a reaction to the Russian military expansion. It also reflects the Nordic nations' dedication to regional security and their growing level of cooperation and integration in multiple domains, from politics to military. Overall, the Nordic Joint Air Force's establishment will have a significant impact on the security dynamics of the region and the balance of power in the Arctic. Moreover, it would also be interesting to observe how this new alliance would affect Russia’s position in the region as the situation develops.

In conclusion, the concept of a Unified Nordic Airforce presents the potential for a mini-NATO in the making, serving as a formidable air power in the European continent. This alliance would not only enhance the defense capabilities of the Nordic countries but also act as a strong deterrent against Russia's military expansion in the region. Moreover, such a unified force would have a positive impact on NATO, bolstering its overall strength and contributing to a more cohesive and coordinated defense strategy in Europe. By pooling their resources, expertise, and technology, the Nordic nations would be creating a force capable of rapid response and effective defense, ultimately ensuring greater stability and security in the region. The Unified Nordic Airforce has the potential to become a vital component of Europe's collective defense efforts, promoting peace and stability for the continent as a whole.

End Notes

[i] Hill, J. (2023, March 29). Sweden stands as outlier of the newly merged Nordic Air Force. Airforce Technology. https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/sweden-stands-as-outlier-of-the-newly-merged-nordic-air-force/

[ii] Macfie, N. (Ed.). (2023, March 24). Nordic countries plan joint air defence to counter Russian threat. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nordic-countries-plan-joint-air-defence-counter-russian-threat-2023-03-24/

[iii] Monaghan, S., Martinez, S., & Svendsen, O. (2023, June 30). What will happen at NATO’s summit in Vilnius? CSIS. https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-will-happen-natos-summit-vilnius

[iv] Detsch, J., & Benson, B. (2023, June 21). Nordic Air Force Takes flight. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/21/nordic-air-force-russia-ukraine-norway-finland-sweden-denmark/  

[v] Ibid

[vi] Macfie, N. (Ed.). (2023, March 24). Nordic countries plan joint air defence to counter Russian threat. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nordic-countries-plan-joint-air-defence-counter-russian-threat-2023-03-24/

[vii] Detsch, J., & Benson, B. (2023, June 21). Nordic Air Force Takes flight. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/21/nordic-air-force-russia-ukraine-norway-finland-sweden-denmark/  

[viii] Detsch, J., & Benson, B. (2023, June 21). Nordic Air Force Takes flight. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/21/nordic-air-force-russia-ukraine-norway-finland-sweden-denmark/  

[ix] Ibid

[x] Finnish Air Force, F. (2023, March 23). Nordic Air Commander’s Intent. https://ilmavoimat.fi/documents/1951206/2016335/ILMAV_(U)-Nordic-Air-Commanders-Intent_23032023.pdf/f7aae370-f5a8-3933-1399-2d008d74c777/ILMAV_(U)-Nordic-Air-Commanders-Intent_23032023.pdf

[xi] Ibid

[xii] Ibid

[xiii] Ibid

[xiv] Finnish Air Force, F. (2023, March 23). Nordic Air Commander’s Intent. https://ilmavoimat.fi/documents/1951206/2016335/ILMAV_(U)-Nordic-Air-Commanders-Intent_23032023.pdf/f7aae370-f5a8-3933-1399-2d008d74c777/ILMAV_(U)-Nordic-Air-Commanders-Intent_23032023.pdf

[xv] Ibid

[xvi] Ibid

[xvii] Ibid

[xviii] Macfie, N. (Ed.). (2023, March 24). Nordic countries plan joint air defence to counter Russian threat. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nordic-countries-plan-joint-air-defence-counter-russian-threat-2023-03-24/

[xix] Hill, J. (2023, March 29). Sweden stands as outlier of the newly merged Nordic Air Force. Airforce Technology. https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/sweden-stands-as-outlier-of-the-newly-merged-nordic-air-force/  

[xx] Ibid

[xxi] Detsch, J., & Benson, B. (2023, June 21). Nordic Air Force Takes flight. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/21/nordic-air-force-russia-ukraine-norway-finland-sweden-denmark/  

[xxii] Ibid

[xxiii] Ibid

[xxiv] Roth, A. (2022, June 29). Putin issues fresh warning to Finland and Sweden on installing NATO infrastructure. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/29/russia-condemns-nato-invitation-finland-sweden#:~:text=Russian%20officials%20earlier%20reacted%20angrily,increase%20tensions%20in%20the%20region.

[xxv] Paukkunen, S., & Vuorisalo, V. (2022, May 12). Towards a “bastion of the north”: The UK and a new northern security architecture. Feature from King’s College London. https://www.kcl.ac.uk/towards-a-bastion-of-the-north-the-uk-and-a-new-northern-security-architecture

[xxvi] Akimenko, V. (2021, July 29). Russia’s strategic deterrence concept - Chatham house. Russia and Strategic non-nuclear deterrence. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/07/russia-and-strategic-non-nuclear-deterrence/russias-strategic-deterrence-concept  

[xxvii] Detsch, J., & Benson, B. (2023, June 21). Nordic Air Force Takes flight. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/21/nordic-air-force-russia-ukraine-norway-finland-sweden-denmark/

[xxviii] Ibid

Bibliography

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Akimenko, V. (2021, July 29). Russia’s strategic deterrence concept - Chatham house. Russia and Strategic non-nuclear deterrence. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/07/russia-and-strategic-non-nuclear-deterrence/russias-strategic-deterrence-concept

Pic Courtesy-Reuters.com

(The views expressed are those of the author and do not represent views of CESCUBE)