Understanding the Political Balance in Afghanistan: Power Sharing Deal between Ghani and Abdullah
Political transitions in Afghanistan have been fraught with tensions and contestations. While one may think that the transfer of leadership in 2014 from Hamid Karzai to Ashraf Ghani was peaceful, the changes and implications which it brought in the region were opposite. It led to an intense battle for power between Ghani and Abdullah, which till today has impacted the politics of Afghanistan. The political tensions became divisive on the lines of ethnicity and also in terms of political ideology. On 17 May 2020, a Power Sharing Agreement was signed between Ghani and Abdullah. This comes as a major development which ends the on-going political impasse between the two rivals and their respective political parties. While there are varying opinions on how this deal would work out, most believe that this is a positive step towards ending the war in Afghanistan and strengthening the peace process. But this deal has drastic implications which can reshape Afghanistan’s future.
The First Power Sharing Deal and its Failure
Since 2001 US invasion, disputes and issues have emerged continuously in Afghanistan in relation to the presidential elections. As the presence of Taliban intensified along with the rise of Islamic State, the past two presidential elections have led to bloodshed. Hence, the presidential elections have always been a significant challenge for the country. But this is not the first time, Ghani and Abdullah are signing a power sharing agreement.
In 2014, when the then President Hamid Karzai gave up his office voluntarily after serving as the Afghan President for 10 years, it created a leadership vacuum. The first round of campaigning for the position of Afghan President was colourful and diverse. Many contenders for the position came up, as it was not only Afghan elites who wanted to put their friends in power, but also the Western diplomats backed by their government, who wanted a friendly leader. But the absence of a dominant candidate in the first round of campaigning, led to the beginning of round two where Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani emerged as the closest competitors for the President.
While Ghani enjoyed the popular support from the Uzbeks and Pashtuns, Abdullah identified his support base in Tajiks and Hazara factions. This divided the campaigning for the political position along the ethnic lines. This ethnic division was aggravated by Abdullah camp on the perception that Karzai who too is a Pashtun, favours Ghani more. This political rivalry culminated into a standoff when the Abdullah camp threatened violence when it showed that Ghani was winning. They assumed that there was some tampering done while counting the votes. On July 2014, a deal was signed between the two camps with US mediation to recount the vote and give the winning party a position in the government. The standoff reached the tipping point when the two camps could not decide on how no how to disqualify the votes as fraud and how the new administration could accommodate both the camps.
On 21 September 2014 impasse was broken when Ghani and Abdullah signed an agreement promising genuine and meaningful partnership, which led to the formation of National Unity Government with Ghani as the President and Abdullah as the Chief Executive Officer.
The foundations of the power sharing agreement were rocky and this complicated the already fragile relationship between the two leaders. An ideal deal on paper, the issues started erupting when then both the parties in the government disagreed on the roles and duties which come under the agreement. While Abdullah and camp believed that the agreement gave them equal say and decision-making power as the President in the government; Ghani and camp believe that according to the constitution, the role of the President has no equal.
Secondly, the parties in the coalition could not agree on the matters of central governance. This mainly included the division of duties and the selection of the cabinet. Both the parties accused each other of favouring candidates for positions of ministers from their ethnic groups. The preferential bias while appointment of the minsters led to a further divided the government on the ethnic lines. Thirdly, the issue divide became strengthened when the parties could not agree about the form of political governance. While Ghani wanted a more Kabul-centric powerhouse, while Abdullah wanted a more decentralised form of governance. Additionally, both the parties due to the continues political friction could not deliver the said promises to either of their camps, security from the terror attacks. The fallout and impasse severely hampered the functioning of the government and made it one of the weakest institutions of Afghanistan.
Second Power Sharing Deal: A Way Ahead?
A situation of political disarray continued as the divisions between the coalition government increased. The 2019 Afghanistan Presidential elections were important as not only was the previous coalition government divisive and weak while the non-state actors like Taliban and IS became stronger, but also were important in order to form a government of consensus which would share power with Taliban, if the on-going US-Taliban Peace Talk were to be successful.
Twice delayed due to the security fears, the elections took place and in September 2019 and Ghani emerged as a winner with 50 percent of the vote. While his competitor, Abdullah secured 39 percent of the vote share. However, Abdullah refused to accept the election results on the ground of the fraud and malpractices. In the light of the same disagreement, for the first time, Afghanistan witnessed two candidates, Ghani and Abdullah declaring themselves are President in a parallel inaugural ceremony. The country has been in political turmoil since then but on May 17 2020, both the camps decided to sign a Power -Sharing Deal.
According to this deal, Ashraf Ghani will be the President for the country while the Abdullah will lead National Reconciliation High Council. Abdullah’s party members will constitute half of the cabinet while the Vice President, Dostum will be promoted to the position of the Marshall and will head the military. The Reconciliation Council will play an important role as an advisor to the President and will also be a significant actor in the peace process in the country.
Significance of New Power Sharing Deal
The scholars view this new power sharing deal as a significant milestone in the history of Afghanistan as they believe that it is a positive step in the direction of ensuring peace and stability in the region. This deal has not only ended the long political impasse between the two prominent leaders in the country but has also paved a path for an effective and inclusive form of governance. It has created a new institutional body headed by Abdullah which will ensure in fighting the extremist’s groups in the region. The body will also act as a checks and balance system against if the President’s office oversteps its mandate.
The deal will also strengthen the cooperation between the factions as their demands will be met and will help in maintaining the political order. This can be used to put up a united front against rampant corruption and violence, two of the main reasons for the high levels of poverty in the country. The deal can also help in combating the Taliban and its ideology through effective and just administration which will restore the trust of the citizens in the government. The idea is through this peace deal is to create an accountable and transparent administration which can help in the prosperity of the nation.
The deal also is prominent for the on-going peace talks between US-Taliban. A stable government is necessary to broker a deal between Taliban and the Afghan government. While USA had been making efforts to leave Afghanistan in a faced manner, the effort was in vain due to the bitter relations between the Afghan two leaders and prevailing political instability. Due to the futility of the peace efforts, US State Secretary, cut the aid to Afghanistan.
Coronavirus has had a huge impact in Afghanistan and the political instability has hindered the state’s process of delivering aid to the citizens. Lack of coordinated action has resulted in negligence and the testing still remains very low. Thus, a probable peace sharing can help the government work in a collated manner to fight the pandemic in an effective manner.
India too, has welcomed this deal and has supported the agreement by calling for an immediate ceasefire and extending help in Afghanistan to combat pandemic. India has also welcomed the inclusive form of government and hopes that it will help in combating the increased violence and terrorist attack which has penetrated its borders.
Conclusion
On paper, the power sharing deal looks impeccable and ensures effective governance and administration. The two leaders in the past have shared bad blood and had sworn that they will never share power in future. The last power sharing deal proved to be a big failure and hence, it is more so important that this deal not have same tragic destiny.
With the passing of time, both leaders have made compromises and will have to continue to do so for the functioning of a strong government. Any disagreements which arise in the future will have to be resolved through peaceful negotiations and discourse, so that the deal does not prove to be another failure. Proper divisions of jobs and ministries have been done to minimise the confusion and maximise the output but everyone will have to work in a coordinated manner and not overstep their mandate.
While this deal has been welcomed across the world, within the country, there are certain challenges which the power sharing deal and its leaders will have to overcome. It will be a serious obstacle for the leaders to overcome the threat of Taliban, poverty and COVID-19. The economic situation of the country will further tighten because of the growing fiscal pressures as the revenues continue to fall due to the lockdown. Due to Covid-19, the foreign aid is likely to reduce and it will be extremely important for the government to come up with a proper plan of action. Another challenge might be combat the huge rise of Islamic State and its cyber-terrorism. The cooperation will have to be highest priority and proper framework and well-defined roles will be the only instrument through which they deal with these challenges. Ultimately, the power-sharing agreement is pertinent for Afghanistan’s stability and peace and will decide the future of Afghanistan, be what might it be.
Pic Courtesy- The Khaama Press News Agency
(The views expressed are personal)
